The Packers entered Sunday’s game against Minnesota in rough shape, with an injury list so long it almost covered an entire starting lineup. That included Jordan Love, who was obviously still suffering from a slightly separated shoulder and looked awkward at times while handing off.
Matt LaFleur was well-prepared, as the Packers first set of scripted plays highlighted the players they did have (including a 24-yard pass interference penalty drawn by Luke Musgrave) and gave them an important 7-3 lead. They would never trail after Emanuel Wilson punched it in from a yard out and shifted to a powerful running attack on offense to protect Love, while allowing the Vikings to beat themselves.
Minnesota traded up in the 2024 draft to select Michigan’s JJ McCarthy tenth overall, and it simply hasn’t worked out. While the Vikings rescued the career of Sam Darnold last season while McCarthy was injured, they then allowed Darnold to move on to Seattle where he has proven not to be a one-year fluke. All of their eggs are now in the McCarthy handbasket, and that handbasket has been en route to the place where handbaskets generally go ever since.
Poor EPA?
It may be premature to dismiss McCarthy entirely. He is a full year younger than his draftmate Drake Maye, now one of the best quarterbacks in the league for the Patriots, but every underlying metric screams that he’s a bust. He has the league’s worst on target percentage, completion percentage, interception percentage, and in the era where we track the advanced statistic “expected points added” (EPA), the only quarterback with as many attempts as McCarthy, and a lower EPA per play is Jamarcus Russell.
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There is a good chance that McCarthy is an all-time bust along the same lines as Russell, and against the Packers, he played like it, completing just 12 of 19 passes for 87 yards. McCarthy threw no touchdown passes, but was picked off twice, and sacked five times. It was one of the single worst games an NFL quarterback has ever had, and so the Packers’ conservative approach on offense worked well.
The heavy lifter for the Packers on offense was Emanuel Wilson, who carried the ball 28 times (while chipping in two catches) for 107 yards and a score on the ground, and another 18 through the air. Wilson was outstanding in spelling an injured Josh Jacobs, gaining almost 70% of his yards after contact, and routinely turning four-yard gains into nine-yard gains. Most importantly, he kept pressure off Love, who mostly avoided exposure to contact and should be able to heal more moving into a short week.
While the defense had one of their easier tasks of the season, it’s worth noting that Micah Parsons recorded two sacks (as did Devonte Wyatt) giving him 10 on the season. Parsons has now recorded double digit sacks in all five seasons he has been in the NFL, and with six games still to play, he has an excellent chance to exceed his career high of 14. Parsons is still just 26 years old and under contract with the Packers through his age-30 season.
Facing the Lions
Green Bay will next face the Lions for their traditional Thanksgiving Day game. Detroit has been struggling since their Week Eight bye, having dropped games to the Eagles and Vikings, and barely escaping the Giants in overtime on Sunday. Defense has been a major issue for the Lions due to injuries in the secondary, but a bigger issue may have been exposed by Minnesota in Week 9.
Jahmyr Gibbs is an outstanding running back coming off a career game against the Giants in which he ran for 219 yards and two touchdowns on just 15 carries, but against Minnesota, he was a huge liability. The Vikings were able to identify plays where Gibbs would be in pass protection and brought blitzes directly at him on every single occasion. This resulted in seven pressures from Viking rushers in all seven of Gibbs’ pass blocking reps, and five sacks on Detroit quarterback Jared Goff.
The Giants did not have the personnel to exploit this weakness last week, but everyone else has managed to bring extra pressure against the Lions this way, or alternatively, force them to use David Montgomery at running back more than they would like. Packer defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has been outstanding at picking on opposing weaknesses, and it will be interesting to see if this issue costs Gibbs playing time. If the Packers can pull off the victory, they will essentially knock the Lions out of contention for the NFC North and put them in a precarious position for the playoffs altogether.