Daniel Jones is already ranked fifth all-time for the Colts, even after the nightmare game in Pittsburgh. Three picks. Five turnovers total. The Steelers sacked him five times and the Colts lost by 17. That’s not a bad game. That’s a disaster. And yet.
Two weeks later—Kansas City, Week 12—Jones drove Indianapolis to a 20-9 fourth-quarter lead. The Chiefs looked finished. Mahomes was cooking checkdowns. Then Jones went silent. Three straight three-and-outs. The defense got gassed. Kansas City scored 14 straight and won in overtime. This one stung worse because he had it.
Those two games just collapsed the Colts’ Super Bowl odds to 2.82 percent in HeyTC’s Super Bowl Simulator. That’s not a season anymore. That’s a rope. But here’s what everyone’s missing: Jones has already proven he can hang on.
Learning Like Mayfield and Darnold
Before Pittsburgh, this wasn’t even a conversation. Jones had three turnovers in eight games. Clean. Efficient. Smart decisions. The guy was playing winning football. Then the Steelers showed up with elite pressure and something broke. Between Pittsburgh and Kansas City, he wasn’t broken. He was learning.
Baker Mayfield’s time in Cleveland was up: unreliable, can’t win big games, wrong in the head. The Browns cut him. Now nobody remembers the meltdown and what happened in Cleveland.
Sam Darnold walked into Minnesota at the same age after five years of “bust,” “lost his mind,” “can’t play.” Thirty-five touchdown passes. Both Mayfield and Darnold found it at age 28.
Guess who is 28 years old this year. That’s right, Indianapolis’ quarterback Daniel Jones who is the 12th ranked quarterback this week according to the new gold standard in daily quarterback rankings.
Pressure Test Doesn’t Mean You Fail It
The Steelers brought perfect pressure. Five sacks. When the line collapses, even legends like Matthew Stafford get rattled. At Arrowhead, the Chiefs game was worse—tight windows, 60,000 screaming, Mahomes doing Mahomes things. Under that stress, Jones’ tightened. His decision-making got faster in a bad way. That’s not permanent. That’s correctable. One good drive. One third-down conversion when it counts. That’s the distance between a QB who folds and one who learns.
The math is simple: 2.82 percent odds means no margin. Every possession counts. Jonathan Taylor’s still putting up monster rushing games. The defense is still elite. The weapons are still there. This isn’t a talent problem. It’s about what happens next down the stretch. A misstep or two won’t sink the ship. Failure breeds success.
The Real January Test
Here’s what actually matters now: can Jones lead the Colts to the Super Bowl with six weeks left?
That’s it. Not the Steelers game or Kansas City. Not his entire career trajectory or what it means about the Giants cutting him. Just this: January football where one bad half ends everything, something that both Mayfield and Darnold haven’t been able to conquer.
Daniel Jones does have a playoff win with the Giants. That’s a memory of confidence that will help him in January.