It’s late November, which means it’s time for everyone’s favorite sporting event.
No, it’s not the Thanksgiving Day Parade or Turkey Day football. It’s the NBA Cup, silly.
The final two days of group play are upon us, and the Knicks are once again in the mix to advance in the relatively meaningless in-season tournament. Now, while winning this tournament itself is extremely useless (ask the 2024 Bucks and 2023 Lakers), these are real games aside from the eventual championship game. It’s real salary bonuses for the players, something especially valuable for rookies.
As of Tuesday, the Knicks are 1-1 in group play with a win against the Miami Heat and a loss against the Chicago Bulls. They also hold a negative point differential. In most other years, the Knicks would need a Herculean effort over their final two games to even squeak into a wild-card spot due to point differential, but that’s not the case this time.
The Milwaukee Bucks currently pace the group with a 2-0 record, and the Heat sit at 2-1 with an impressive plus-46 point differential, giving them a massive advantage if they were to be a wild card. The Bulls (who’ve lost eight of 12 overall) are all but buried, as are the winless Hornets.
What happens in other groups only matters if the Knicks are competing for a wild card (which is unlikely), but let’s recap them anyway:
The Raptors are suddenly red hot and have already clinched a spot in the knockout round; meanwhile, the lowly Indiana Pacers are already eliminated. It’s also safe to say that the Wizards are done too, barring two of the biggest blowouts ever by a team whose fanbase is [posting AJ Dybantsa edits.](https://x.com/districtupnxt/status/1987400563315908999?s=46&t=VL9gUNuwzg1BJZx9G5jHyw)
Competing for the wild card are the Cavaliers and Hawks in a sneakily strong group. The Cavs have the early advantage with two wins and a big point differential advantage due to a blowout win over the Wizards. Their lone game remaining? Atlanta, where a win could punch their ticket, especially if they win by double digits.
The Hawks still have two games left, but they’ll have to beat the Cavs on Friday to get a wild card and will have to run up the score tonight against the Wizards to get in position, with the Heat’s point differential standing out.
This group’s been a weird one. The Nets were perceived as the only weak link, but have turned out to be in third place. The Sixers and Celtics are already essentially dead and buried, needing a near-impossible level of chaos to drag themselves back into any race. Considering neither team has had a bad start to the year, it’s odd.
Only two teams have a chance of advancing to the knockout round: the Pistons and Magic. Detroit has not lost a game in about a month, so if that continues? They’re in. They still get the Celtics in Boston on Wednesday and the likely group-decider against Orlando on Black Friday.
The Magic, who’ve already beaten our Knicks twice, have scored wins over Brooklyn and Boston already. They get the Sixers tonight in Philly, and if they win that, they’d be win-and-in on Friday. If the loser of this series goes 3-1, they’ll need a close loss on Friday and a blowout win tonight or tomorrow to move on.
**West Group A** is likely going to be won by the Thunder unless they lose for just the second time this season in their next two games. If they beat the Timberwolves and the Suns beat the Kings on Wednesday, it sets up a winner-take-all finale on Friday between the two teams. If Minnesota manages to beat the Thunder, though, they’ll be in a prime position for at least a wild card with their impressive point differential (plus-53).
**West Group B** doesn’t seem to have the point differentials to get two teams in, so the Lakers and Clippers are battling for first. They play tonight, whaddya know? The Grizzlies are also in it and play the Clippers on Friday, so if the Clippers beat the Lakers, there’s a chance that the drama-laden Grizzlies take the group.
**West Group C** is up in the air. Portland finishes up tonight against the Spurs, where a win clinches the group. If they lose? It’ll come down to the winner of the Spurs-Nuggets game on Friday.
Back to the Knicks, where do we sit?
While normal NBA Cup gymnastics require help and point differential tiebreakers, things are incredibly simple for the Knicks to advance to the knockout round: win-and-in.
Because their lone loss is to the all-but-eliminated Bulls, the Knicks just need to beat the Hornets and Bucks in their next two games to win the group. They’d win any tiebreaker with the Bucks and Heat at 3-1 due to their head-to-head record.
The Hornets are frisky despite their 5-12 record. They recently took the Hawks and Raptors to the brink, but have also suffered bad losses to the Clippers and Pacers. LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller are back and healthy, but both are being [partially load-managed](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/injuries/_/name/cha/charlotte-hornets), so it remains to be seen if they’ll be full go on Wednesday. No OG Anunoby will be crucial if Miller plays.
The Bucks beat the Knicks in a non-cup game earlier this year, but how this game will go will likely be influenced by the status of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who’s out with a quad strain. If he’s back, he’ll be nearly impossible to stop with the Knicks’ injuries. If he sits? The Bucks suddenly look a lot weaker.
It’s simple enough, especially considering a loss would eliminate the Knicks from all chances to advance to the knockout round. Their substandard point differential would kill any chance of advancing as a wild card, especially considering the unlikelihood of there being no 3-1 non-group winners.
Win-and-in, that’s about it. It can be by 2, it can be by 40. Just need two dubs.
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