At 4-7 and last in the crowded NFC North entering Thanksgiving week games, the Vikings obviously hoped this year would have resulted in better positioning heading into December. Minnesota waited patiently for J.J. McCarthy to make his debut after he sat out his first professional year following a torn meniscus after the Vikings selected him 10th overall in 2024.
It's been a trying year for McCarthy, who is 2-4 as a starter and missed five games because of a high ankle sprain. His most recent start (in a 23-6 loss to the Packers) increased the volume of the critiques of his performance in his redshirt rookie season. In that contest, the young quarterback threw for just 87 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions (plus a lost fumble). His adjusted yards per attempt was -0.16, and he was sacked five times for a loss of 35 yards.
That's a far cry from the season-opening win on the road against the Bears.
Among qualified quarterbacks McCarthy is:
But the caveat with McCarthy is the same we should hold with any young quarterback: It's been just a handful of games. And of his few (six) games played so far, only four of them have been consecutive. He's been between starting and injured this season, making it tricky to find a groove, as we've seen through the on-field results.
And for as poor as his play has been, there are some bright spots.
Firstly, when his decision-making catches up to his athletic ability, there's room to grow. His yards on completed passes are right at league average. His touchdown rate is higher than nine other quarterbacks, well out of the bottom of the leaderboard like his other rate stats. He has already notched a game-winning, fourth quarter drive in just six games played.
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But perhaps the best way to contextualize how six games doesn't define a quarterback is to compare him to other quarterbacks that we, today, recognize as some of the game's most elite. It's easy to think of the biggest winners in the NFL as having done this right from the get-go, but almost every elite quarterback has had a rough patch or two in the early stages of their careers.
Through six games, let's look at six active quarterbacks with at least 75 career wins to stack McCarthy up against, plucking their first six starts.
|Wins|TD|INT|Completion %|Yards/attempt|Sacks|Passer Rating|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Josh Allen|3|7|5|53.8|6.4|18|66.1|
|J.J. McCarthy|2|8|10|54.1|5.8|20|57.9|
Allen, today an MVP and perennial Pro Bowler, didn't have as hot of a start to his professional career as you might remember. While the weapons and protection around him have improved several times over since his rookie season, aiding the performance we know him for today, Allen was anything but an instant hit for the Bills who had, up to him taking the reins, toiled through a number of quarterbacks who failed to bring the franchise out of the AFC East's basement for years.
While Allen got the Bills to one more win than McCarthy has managed in his first six games, Allen finished the year unremarkably, leading Buffalo to a 5-6 record as the starter before managing winning seasons every year since.
|Wins|TD|INT|Completion %|Yards/attempt|Sacks|Passer Rating|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Lamar Jackson|5|7|3|58.2|7.0|13|82.8|
|J.J. McCarthy|2|8|10|54.1|5.8|20|57.9|
Jackson didn't get to make his debut as a starter until mid-season of his rookie year, but inspired a lot of confidence by managing three straight wins to start his career. For both Jackson and Allen, one missing piece of the puzzle McCarthy can't make up for one-for-one is the ability to extend plays by evading the pocket, an important profile to their overall games, and one explanation for how Jackson managed so many fewer sacks.
Even with that, McCarthy has managed a touchdown more than Jackson did in his first six games, albeit with a worse completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating.
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|Wins|TD|INT|Completion %|Yards/attempt|Sacks|Passer Rating|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Aaron Rodgers|3|14|4|64.2|7.7|13|98.0|
|J.J. McCarthy|2|8|10|54.1|5.8|20|57.9|
Like McCarthy, Rodgers had to wait in the wings for his chance to take on a starting role at the professional level. Except Rodgers's delay was designed by the Packers, with the idea being he would take on a mentorship of sorts, observing Brett Favre's play and preparation, and that the Packers would transition to him as he became ready.
Green Bay deployed this same tactic with Jordan Love, a formula that appears to have worked twice, and has given the Packers the flexibility of avoiding some of the early-career hiccups that can be so frustrating for teams looking to muster out wins. Looking at how well Sam Darnold, Minnesota's starter last season, is performing for the Seahawks this season, it's worth wondering if that strategy was worth considering in Minnesota as well, giving McCarthy even more time to sit and prepare behind a more seasoned quarterback.
Rodgers sat a full three seasons before taking on the starting role in 2008. With that long of a runway, he excelled to the tune of 11 touchdowns and four interceptions, with a stronger yards/attempt and much stronger passer rating than that of McCarthy in his first six games.
While the comparison is worth noting, it also stands as a good reminder that adjusting to the pressures of being an NFL quarterback are hard, and it took Rodgers three years plus all the natural talent to start off this well.
McCarthy had a year, yes, but Rodgers had three.
|Wins|TD|INT|Completion %|Yards/attempt|Sacks|Passer Rating|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Patrick Mahomes|6|16|3|63.5|8.5|8|106.7|
|J.J. McCarthy|2|8|10|54.1|5.8|20|57.9|
The first six games of Mahomes's career blow McCarthy's out of the water. What do we learn here? McCarthy is not Mahomes. Lucky for McCarthy, this comparison is borderline silly. He's not Mahomes. No one is.
If building a winner was as easy as finding the next Mahomes, the Chiefs probably wouldn't have five AFC titles in six years.
So, forgive me for not putting too much stock in seeing that a rookie starter's career hasn't soared off to the same start as the best quarterback in the league who has left opponents scratching their heads from his debut onward.
|Wins|TD|INT|Completion %|Yards/attempt|Sacks|Passer Rating|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Matthew Stafford|1|7|12|53.7|5.9|14|55.9|
|J.J. McCarthy|2|8|10|54.1|5.8|20|57.9|
Stafford is the kind of quarterback any franchise would love to build around. He won a Super Bowl with the Rams and has looked like an MVP candidate even in his ongoing 17th season in the NFL.
He, too, struggled to get going within the NFC North, winning just one of his first six games with the Lions and throwing for a worse completion percentage than McCarthy. As you can see, their yards per attempt and passer rating were just about equal.
It's one of the most optimistic statistic comparisons you can find for McCarthy among quality, long-standing quarterbacks in the league today.
|Wins|TD|INT|Completion %|Yards/attempt|Sacks|Passer Rating|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Jared Goff|0|6|7|53.5|5.2|19|61.7|
|J.J. McCarthy|2|8|10|54.1|5.8|20|57.9|
Moving over to the quarterback that swapped places with Stafford, Goff won none of his first six games with the Rams, and had a worse completion percentage, yards per attempt, sack total and passer rating compared to McCarthy so far.
Today, Goff has the Lions as a perennial NFC contender under the leadership of Dan Campbell, and has reached 4,000 yards inside a season five times.
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