Few things can change the entire makeup of a football game like pressure and turnovers. Look no further than the last two games for the Green Bay Packers. Two weeks ago, they were nursing a one-score lead against the New York Giants when Evan Williams finally got his hands on an interception and ended the threat. A few plays later, a Micah Parsons strip-sack recovered by Rashan Gary ended the game, and the Packers sent the fans home happy.
This past week against the Minnesota Vikings, the Packers managed not 1, not 2, but 3 turnovers, which helped put pressure on an already struggling young J.J. McCarthy. The biggest play in that game was a fumbled punt by Minnesota that gave the Packers the football in the Vikings’ red zone, and that was all that was needed to put Green Bay in front for good. A swarming pass rush led to two other turnovers by the Vikings and contributed to the Packers’ utter defensive domination against their division rival.
With Green Bay right in the middle of a three-game divisional gauntlet, Thanksgiving against the Lions in Detroit will likely be the toughest matchup of the three. Even with the Lions currently on the outside of the playoff picture, they are still a very good football team that doesn’t lose at home or on Thanksgiving very often. It’s a big reason why they continue to be the early game on our TVs every year. There’s no understating what this game means for Green Bay. A season sweep would give them a head-to-head edge and would make next week’s game against the Bears a first-place matchup. If the Packers are going to win Thursday, they’ll need to steal a possession via a turnover.
Now, that’s easier said than done, of course. The Lions are currently a +5 in turnover differential, which is good for 7th in the NFL. On the season, they have 5 giveaways via interception and 3 via fumble. The Packers have struggled for much of the season with takeaways but have started to gain traction the last few weeks. Against the Eagles, they had one fumble takeaway. Against the Giants, the aforementioned Evan Williams pick and the Parsons strip. And then against the Vikings, the punt fumble and 2 interceptions by McDuffie and Evan Williams sealed the game for good. Even with the uptick in turnovers, the Packers are only middle of the pack this season with 11 total.
The best way, of course, to force turnovers is pressure. Jared Goff is quick to get the ball out of his hand, and when the Lions’ offense is in rhythm and he’s got time, there are few better in the league. However, the book on Goff is out: he’s a different quarterback when he’s pressured versus when he’s kept clean. If the Packers can win quickly and get pressure, they can force Goff into mistakes. If they can do that with just four up front, then even better. Potentially playing without Keisean Nixon, it would do wonders for their secondary not to have to bring blitz help to get home to Goff.
Look no further than Thanksgiving 2023 when the Packers marched into Detroit and turned their season around with a huge win. They pressured Goff all day to the tune of three sacks and twelve total pressures. That pressure resulted in a career-high three fumbles by Goff, one of which was returned for a touchdown. Rashan Gary said after that game how that pressure helped create those game-changing turnovers:
“Making him feel uncomfortable and making him throw the ball a little bit earlier than what he thought, that helped us today.”
The Lions’ offensive line heading into Thursday is pretty beat up, which could aid Green Bay’s efforts. Center Graham Glasgow has missed both estimated practices with a knee injury. Both of their stalwart offensive tackles are limited this week as well—Taylor Decker with a shoulder injury and Penei Sewell. Both are likely to go, but having them limited in any form or fashion would be a welcome sight for Packers fans.
In the Week 1 matchup this season, the Packers again pressured Goff all day and forced him into a mistake via an interception. They had four sacks and hit Goff a total of nine times back in September, holding his passer rating to a mediocre 88.6. If the Packers can repeat last week’s performance—where four players combined for 5 sacks (with Gary adding a strip-sack/interception)—then they can make it a very unjoyful holiday for this Lions offense. The Packers enter this game riding a hot streak of takeaways, and if they can continue that trend for a third straight week and steal a possession or two from Goff and the Lions, then Green Bay will be well on their way to tripling their divisional wins from a season ago.