The NFL serves up its traditional three-game Thanksgiving feast, and there are plenty of high-powered offenses in action.
With some stellar individual efforts likely, here are five Thanksgiving prop bets to consider:
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
Over 6.5 receptions (-143 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
St. Brown is once against the key cog in the Lions’ passing attack this season, and his already elevated importance has inched up even higher with the loss of tight end Sam LaPorta to a back injury. St. Brown is coming off a nine-catch, 149-yard effort against the Giants on Sunday, and even though the matchup gets much stiffer Thursday, the All-Pro receiver is still very much under consideration for the Over on this prop.
St. Brown had a modest four receptions back in a lackluster Week 1 performance for the Lions’ passing attack as a whole at Lambeau Field. However, he’s gone to average 7.1 catches per game since, and this rematch naturally takes place on the fast track of Ford Field.
Additionally, per Stat Rankings, the Packers come in playing zone coverage at the league’s sixth-highest rate (77.3%), while St. Brown is averaging an outstanding 3.4 yards per route run and generating a 31.3% target rate versus that coverage at home. Brown has gotten to at least seven catches in seven of 11 games as well, with four of those occasions coming at home.
David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions
Over 35.5 rushing yards (-114 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Montgomery is averaging 46.5 rushing yards per game overall, even though his game-to-game production has seen some fairly drastic fluctuation. To further illustrate, the veteran running back has rushed for 40 or more yards in five of 11 games, and he’s been at 27 or fewer in his other six contests.
Nevertheless, as that breakdown indicates, this is a figure that’s very much within the range of outcomes for Montgomery against a Packers team that’s just outside the top 10 in the league with 64.0 opponent plays per road game allowed. Green Bay is also surrendering 4.2 yards per carry when traveling, as well as an elevated 30.7 rush attempts per game in the last three contests.
Finally, it’s also worth noting Montgomery has consistently found success against the Packers relative to this pro dating back to his days with the Bears – he’s rushed for between 42 and 122 yards in nine of his last 10 meetings with Green Bay.
Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Over 74.5 receiving yards (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Rice has been the proverbial apple of Patrick Mahomes’ eye since the receiver’s delayed season debut in Week 7, posting a 34-394-3 line on 47 targets over that five-game span. Rice is drawing a target on a whopping 38.5% of his routes in that sample per RotoWire, while also averaging 3.2 yards per route run.
Thursday’s matchup against a Cowboys defense that plays some of the heaviest rates of zone coverage in the league – not to mention Kansas City’s 28-point implied team total – suggests a potentially rewarding day for Rice against a secondary that’s surrendering an NFL-high 289.8 passing yards per home game, along with 11.6 yards per completion in that split.
Rice has been absolutely lethal against zone coverage, drawing a target on 34.7% of his routes and averaging 3.4 yards per route run versus that scheme. Rice has gone for 80 yards or more in three of his first five games, and given the aforementioned vulnerabilities of Dallas’ pass defense, this sets up as another favorable spot.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Over 75.5 receiving yards (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
As just alluded to in Rice’s entry, the outlook for the Chiefs’ air attack as a whole is bright in this matchup against the Cowboys, and KC is projected to score plenty of points. Assuming that’s a fairly accurate assumption, that means we should see plenty of passing from Dak Prescott in an attempt to keep up, and that puts the receiving yardage prop for his No. 1 receiver in play.
Granted, George Pickens has pushed to be considered at least a “1A” in Dallas’ air attack with his outstanding body of work to this point. Yet, Lamb naturally remains a critical part of the offense, and he has a bit of atoning to do after another drop-filled performance against the Eagles in the Week 12 comeback win.
Lamb has the ability to have a strong bounce-back effort in a pass-heavy game script, and he checks in averaging a career-high 14.4 yards per reception while having gained 20+ yards on just over 20% of his 44 catches. The Chiefs are also playing man coverage at the NFL’s 10th-highest rate (35%), and Lamb is averaging 4.0 yards per route run against man on the season on his way to 74 receiving yards or more in six of his seven non-injury-shortened games.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Over 77.5 rushing + receiving yards (-113 on BetRivers Sportsbook)
Brown has played a key role as runner and receiver in this year’s Bengals offense, and his workload has especially shot up over the last two games with Samaje Perine sidelined by an ankle injury. Brown has logged 45 total touches in that span, turning those opportunities into 257 total scrimmage yards. Perine is expected back for Thursday night’s divisional clash, but this remains a very reasonable number for Brown to attain.
Brown is averaging 16.9 touches per game on the season and parlaying that volume into 79.8 rushing + receiving yards per contest. He’s exceeded the figure for this prop on five occasions, with all of those coming in consecutive fashion and immediately preceding Thursday’s game. That’s a large enough sample to suggest the Bengals have opted to trust Brown on a long-term basis with more opportunity, and even Joe Burrow’s expected return Thursday should still keep Brown a very relevant part of the game plan.
The Ravens have improved against the run as the season has gone on after a dreadful start in that regard this season, but Baltimore is still facing the seventh-most rush attempts per home game (27.5) and yielding 125.7 rushing yards per game in that split despite the recent uptick in performance. The Ravens are also surrendering 4.5 RB yards per carry and an average of 4.5 receptions and 38.1 receiving yards to running backs per game per Pro Football Reference, further supporting Brown’s chances of getting there on this prop.