There are many areas the 2025 Pittsburgh Steelers should look to improve. Among them is an underachieving defense to date compared to expectations entering 2025.
One thing that stands out is an extreme issue in situational play. When looking at the expected points added (EPA) by downs, a very concerning fact comes to light.
Here’s a visual of early down (first and second down) EPA compared to late down (third and fourth down) EPA allowed through Week 12:
The Steelers’ defense lands on a very extreme part of the chart. The good news is ranking seventh best on early downs (-0.03), with lower EPA numbers being more ideal for defenses. Despite limiting opposing offenses here, which more often than not results in better late-down success, it’s been the opposite for Pittsburgh.
Their 0.44 late-down EPA allowed ranks next to last, including quite a drop off from the rest of the NFL. The visual illustrates how rare it’s been in 2025 for a defense to be so strong on early downs, just to plummet on third and fourth down. Interestingly, the Steelers’ next opponent, the Buffalo Bills, has had similar early results.
Buffalo is the only defense with a worse late-down EPA than Pittsburgh at 0.46, while also landing a notch below the Steelers on early downs (-0.02, eighth). Both defenses have struggled to clamp down on late downs, when it matters most.
Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 27th in overall third down conversions allowed (42.7-percent), and 31st in fourth down conversions allowed (73.1-percent). Buffalo’s defense has fared better, with a 37.9 third-down conversion rate allowed, ranking 16th, but falls closer to the Steelers on fourth down (69.2-percent, T-25th). So, Buffalo has stronger late-down conversion rates as a defense.
But this study reveals that they’ve allowed the worst EPA in the situation. Another way to think about this is that the Bills’ defense has given up highly impactful plays on late downs to opposing offenses more than any other defense on the conversions they have allowed. The Steelers offense should really aim to attack this, given all the facts thus far, along with the Bills having the edge on late-down conversion rates, too.
When the 6-5 Pittsburgh Steelers face off with the 7-4 Buffalo Bills this Sunday, success by down (particularly late ones) will be high on my radar, and will likely bode well for the victor. Hopefully, a positive change in this regard for Pittsburgh’s defense will be another thing to be thankful for this holiday season.
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