Thanksgiving signifies the beginning of the holiday season. It also means a turn for home in NFL lingo.
There are just six weeks left in the regular season, with only a handful of teams either all but assured of a playoff spot or essentially eliminated from contention. On Thanksgiving, we have a trio of terrific games, headlined by the Packers visiting the Lions in the early window, followed by the Chiefs visiting the Cowboys in a virtual must-win for both sides.
On Sunday, the Texans and Colts lock up in Indianapolis with Houston looking to close the AFC South gap to one game, while Daniel Jones & Co. are hoping to put the Texans firmly in the wild-card section of the playoff picture.
In the late window, the Steelers host the Bills in a critical game for each side. Buffalo likely needs to win out for any hopes of taking the AFC East, while Pittsburgh is now tied with the Ravens for the AFC North’s top spot.
But we start on Turkey Day in Detroit, where the Lions are hoping to earn a season split with the Packers.
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Spread: Lions -2.5
Key matchup: Jared Goff vs. Jeff Hafley
Key stat: Goff went for just 5.8 yards per attempt in their Week 1 matchup.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Thursday, Fox
The Packers know how to beat Jared Goff and the Lions. They’ve already done it.
For Detroit, the question is how much to adjust. The Lions were beaten 27–13 with the benefit of a garbage-time touchdown to make the score more respectable. In Week 1, Green Bay hounded Goff, pressuring him 12 times and collecting four sacks while the veteran quarterback posted a -0.9 EPA for the game.
Additionally, star running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery were stifled, gaining just 44 yards on 20 carries. The Packers have been tough against the run all season, ranking sixth with -0.10 EPA per rush attempt.
Offensive coordinator John Morton must figure out ways to attack Green Bay with 11 games of film to reference. Morton should have a better idea of his own personnel, albeit without tight end Sam LaPorta due to back surgery. In that Week 1 loss, Detroit struggled to handle interior pressures while All-Pro receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown was targeted only six times.
For this game to be different, Morton will have to dial up some different runs, schemes to help the guards and center to deal with Micah Parsons when he lines up or stunts inside, and look for St. Brown with LaPorta sidelined.
Verdict: Detroit 30, Green Bay 27
Spread: Chiefs -3.5
Key matchup: Patrick Mahomes vs. Dallas’s secondary
Key stat: The Cowboys allow 4.1 yards of target separation, 32nd in the league.
Date, Time, TV: 4:30 p.m. ET Thursday, CBS
For the Cowboys to win their third consecutive game, they’ll have to play much better pass defense than what we’ve seen this season.
Dallas ranks dead last in separation allowed per target at 4.1 yards, while also entering Thursday sitting in 28th at +0.09 EPA per pass attempt against. On a basic level, the Cowboys have allowed 252.3 passing yards per game, only better than the Steelers and Bengals.
Of course, this poses an obvious problem when facing Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs quarterback ranks second with 2,977 passing yards and third in QBR at 71.9. The two-time MVP and three-time Super Bowl champion is also second in EPA (+78.2) to Drake Maye and has his full complement of weapons headlined by receiver Rashee Rice, who through five games has 34 catches for 394 yards and three scores, a pace of 1,339 yards. Travis Kelce is also having an excellent season at 36 years old, pacing for more than 1,000 yards.
If the Cowboys are going to slow down Mahomes and the Chiefs, it’ll likely be with their pass rush. Kansas City will be without Pro Bowl right guard Trey Smith, who is dealing with ankle injuries. Dallas does rank well in pressure rate (35.8%), and should only get better after acquiring All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline.
Verdict: Kansas City 34, Dallas 24
Patrick Mahomes & Co. will travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys in a must-win matchup.
Patrick Mahomes & Co. will travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys in a must-win matchup. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
Spread: Eagles -7
Key matchup: Saquon Barkley vs. Chicago’s run defense
Key stat: The Bears rank 22nd in EPA per rush against at -0.01.
Date, Time, TV: 3 p.m. ET Friday, Amazon
If the Eagles are ever going to get their offense on track, Saquon Barkley must be the engine.
Last year, Barkley had one of the greatest seasons ever for a running back, rushing for 2,095 yards on the way to Offensive Player of the Year honors and a Super Bowl ring. This season has been far different. Barkley has been bottled up almost every week, gaining more than 100 yards in a game only once.
Overall, Barkley is averaging 3.6 yards per carry while notching a negative EPA on runs both outside the tackles (-10.4) and inside (-21.9). Against Chicago, Barkley will face a porous run defense, ranking 22nd in EPA per rush against (-0.01) and 26th in stuff rate (14.0%).
As importantly, the Bears are also without star linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, who is sidelined with a groin injury. After losing a 21–0 lead to the Cowboys in a 24–21 defeat, a game in which Barkley only got 10 carries for 22 yards while losing a fumble, one would imagine embattled offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo will give his star the ball.
But if Barkley and the Eagles can’t find success against Chicago’s front seven, alarm bells will be at a thunderous level.
Verdict: Philadelphia 22, Chicago 17
Spread: Colts -4.5
Key matchup: Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter vs. Indy’s offensive line
Key stat: Anderson Jr. and Hunter have combined for 21.5 sacks this season.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Over the past three weeks, Daniel Jones has struggled with pressure. The results have been disastrous for the Colts, who are 1–2 over that stretch.
Against the Texans, pressure will be coming in a major way. There’s no better edge tandem than Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, who through 11 games have combined for 21.5 sacks and 35 quarterback hits. They’ll go against a Colts’ line, that after allowing just nine sacks in eight games, permitted 12 against the Steelers and Falcons. Last week, the front didn’t allow Jones to be sacked by the Chiefs, but he was pressured on 40.6% of his drop-backs.
Now, Indianapolis draws a streaking Houston team off a mini bye, having played on Thursday night. The Texans have won three straight and sacked Josh Allen eight times last weekend in an upset victory. What’s more, Houston doesn’t have to blitz much, ranking 22nd in blitz rate (23.7%) while checking in at fourth in sack rate (8.2%).
Without pressure, Jones has been awesome, registering an +86.0 EPA. When pressured? His EPA is -34.3.
Verdict: Houston 19, Indianapolis 16
Spread: Bills -3.5
Key matchup: Josh Allen vs. Pittsburgh’s pass defense
Key stat: The Steelers rank 22nd in pressure rate (32.6%).
Date, Time, TV: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
If the Bills are going to be a champion, it will be because of the right arm of Josh Allen.
The good news? That might happen on Sunday, against a Pittsburgh defense living off its past reputation rather than its current form. The Bills have struggled to throw outside this season, with Keon Coleman being a healthy scratch the past two weeks, Joshua Palmer and Tyrell Shavers are the top options on the perimeter with 272 and 172 receiving yards, respectively.
Still, Allen will be a force the Steelers must deal with. He’s fifth in pass EPA at +53.9, trailing only Maye, Mahomes, Jordan Love and Matthew Stafford. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s pass defense has been leaky, ranking 21st in EPA per pass attempt against (-0.04) and 22nd in pressure rate (32.6%).
For Buffalo, the big key will be avoiding turnovers. The Bills are ninth-worst with 15 giveaways, while Pittsburgh has 20 takeaways, third-best in football.
Verdict: Buffalo 23, Pittsburgh 20
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