Welcome back to my weekly AFC West check-in – a quick, data-driven power ranking that tracks how the divisional shifts from Sunday to Sunday. Rankings aren’t box-score trophies – they’re context-adjusted judgments on where these teams are at and who’s sitting pole week to week. Here’s how I stack the AFC West after 12 weeks, and why.
4. Las Vegas Raiders
Oct 19, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith (7) passes the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs during the third quarter of the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
The Raiders are stapled to the AFC West basement at 2-9 after getting pushed around 24-10 at home by a 3-8 Browns team starting Shedeur Sanders in his first NFL regular-season start. That loss wasn’t some weird fluke either; Cleveland basically treated Vegas as the perfect soft landing for a rookie debut while Myles Garrett and that front mauled a leaky offensive line all afternoon. Between the penalties, protection issues, and an offense that can’t find explosive plays unless Ashton Jeanty creates them out of thin air, this team has “rebuild” written all over it. The only real weekly constants are Maxx Crosby playing like a madman and the rest of the operation dragging him down.
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Week 13 Lookahead (Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers): The Raiders walk into SoFi as a double-digit underdog against a Chargers team that’s been stewing on that Jacksonville beatdown through its bye, with Vegas staring at a line around Chargers -10 and a low-40s total that screams methodical beatdown. If the Raiders can’t protect Geno or clean up the flags, this has all the makings of another long Sunday where the only question is whether Crosby can keep the score from getting truly embarrassing.
3. Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes
Nov 16, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) before the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
The Chiefs sit at 6-5 and feel way more like a dangerous but flawed wild-card contender than the automatic division bully they’ve been for a decade. Yes, they rallied from an 11-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat an 8-2 Colts team 23-20 in overtime, with Patrick Mahomes throwing for 352 yards and Kansas City doubling Indy up in yardage 494-255 and in first downs 33-10. But it still took five Harrison Butker field goals and a 1-for-6 red-zone performance to get there, which is exactly the kind of process that has them living on a knife’s edge every week. Until the penalties, miscues, and red-zone migraines get cleaned up, this is a terrifying but inconsistent outfit that belongs behind Denver and L.A. in the divisional pecking order.
Week 13 Lookahead (Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys): Now they get the joy of walking into AT&T Stadium on Thanksgiving afternoon to face a Cowboys team that lives for these spotlight games and can punch back on both sides of the ball. If the Chiefs play another three-quarters of sloppy ball before flipping the switch, Dallas has the firepower to bury them before Mahomes ever gets a chance to play hero.
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2. Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws the ball against the Tennessee Titans during the third quarter at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Nov. 2, 2025.
The Chargers come out of their Week 12 bye at 7-4, 2nd in the AFC West, with a +8 point differential (246 scored, 238 allowed). They’re 3-0 in the division with wins already banked over both Denver and Kansas City, which is why they sit ahead of the Chiefs despite that ugly no-show against Jacksonville before the break. Jim Harbaugh has clearly raised the floor, but the offense oscillates between top-10 and unwatchable depending on how the battered line holds up and whether Justin Herbert has to play superhero. With Omarion Hampton possibly coming off IR after the bye and the defense capable of looking elite in stretches, this is the classic “do we trust them” spot.
Week 13 Lookahead (Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers): Everything about this matchup says get-right game, with the Chargers laying about 10 points at home against a Raiders team that just made Shedeur Sanders look like a seasoned vet. If L.A. wants to be taken seriously in the AFC race, they have to stomp the division doormat here and treat this like a statement win, not a sleepy trap.
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1. Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) makes a pass against the Dallas Cowboys in the first quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
At 9-2 on an eight-game win streak, leading the AFC and fresh off finally beating the Chiefs 22-19, the Broncos are the clear top dog in the West and one of the league’s real heavyweights. The funny part is they’re doing it with a sputtering offense, a season-ending injury to J.K. Dobbins, and a league-leading pile of penalties and punts. What makes them No. 1 anyway is the combination of a suffocating, opportunistic defense and clutch late-game execution that has turned close games from a 2024 weakness into a 2025 calling card. When you’re tied for the best record in the conference, own a win over Philly, and just kicked the long-time division bully in the teeth, you sit on top until someone knocks you off.
Week 13 Lookahead (Denver Broncos @ Washington Commanders): Coming out of the bye, Denver heads to Washington for Sunday night, and on paper, this is exactly the kind of 3-8 opponent you’re supposed to handle if you’re serious about chasing the one-seed. The trap is obvious: if the Broncos keep sleepwalking on offense and handing out free yards in penalties, even a flawed Commanders team can make this way uglier than it needs to be in prime time.
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