The Atlanta Falcons finally beat a team they were supposed to. Their three previous wins this year had come against Vikings and Bills teams expected to be far better than they actually are and the Commanders before they came apart completely, while their losses came to the Panthers (twice!) and hapless Dolphins, as well as a few good teams. The Saints represented yet another bottom feeder, but this time Atlanta actually won.
Now what? The Falcons keep the softest stretch of their schedule going with a matchup against the New York Jets. They’re one of four teams with two wins and jockeying for the first overall pick, competing against the likes of the Saints, the Giants, the Raiders, and the 1-10 Titans. They are a terrible team, and the Falcons must beat them to show last week was not a fluke. Full stop, end of story.
Can they do it? Let’s look ahead to this week’s matchup.
Team rankings
### Team ### Record ### Points Scored ### Yardage ### Passing Yards ### Rushing Yards ### Points Against ### Yardage Against ### Passing Yards Against ### Rushing Yardage Against ### Turnovers Created ### Turnovers Surrendered
Falcons 4-7 25 18 18 13 15 16 8 26 9 9
Jets 2-9 26 29 32 7 26 14 10 23 32 19
The Jets and Falcons have quite similar defenses, though the Jets have allowed many more points than Atlanta. What really separates these two teams—you’ll note they’re also discouragingly close in scoring—is the passing game and turnovers. The Jets are one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL while the Falcons are merely mediocre, but the bigger deal is that the Jets basically do no force turnovers and are much more generous about doling them out than Atlanta.
How the Jets have changed
So much it’s almost not worth recounting, especially since the last time the Falcons saw them. Suffice to say this is a very different Jets team than it was a year ago or two years ago, and will be a very different Jets team next year.
Aaron Glenn is the new head coach, Justin Fields was the new quarterback before Tyrod Taylor took over, Quinnen Williams is gone, and the team used free agency and the draft to try to bring the floor of the roster up significantly; that hasn’t really happened. There are promising rookies here—I like tackle Armand Membou and tight end Mason Taylor quite a bit—and everyone’s played at least a little bit in their first season. But the Jets need at least one and probably two offseasons of major acquisitions to substantially improve one of the league’s worst rosters.
The thing with the Jets, of course, is that it’s really a question of how things have changed organizationally. Woody Johnson and his kids are some of the biggest meddlers and least patient, knowledgeable owners in the league, which has meant an ever-churning cycle of mediocrity or worse for this franchise. If Aaron Glenn and Darren Mougey get time and use their draft picks wisely, perhaps they can break out of it. It just won’t be this year.
What to know about the matchup
This is another one the Falcons have to win and should win.
The Jets probably have a higher passing game floor with Tyrod Taylor, who is still a competent quarterback at 36, given that Justin Fields had four games with well under 100 passing yards in 2025. Taylor also is still a capable runner, though not nearly the threat that Fields is, and has Garrett Wilson, young tight end Mason Taylor, and Breece Hall to throw to.
The problem for the Jets is that the ceiling is still really limited. Wilson is the only high-end threat the Jets have, and if the Falcons can keep him bottled up, Taylor and company will be heavily reliant on testing Divine Deablo and the safeties working against Taylor and Hall. That’s not a recipe for success unless you have a quarterback who excels at making tight window throws or testing the Falcons downfield with speedsters AD Mitchell and John Metchie; Taylor can do both but has not done either consistently in a long while now. The Jets have yet to pass for over 250 yards this season, and while I expect them to get close and possibly exceed that given some of Atlanta’s recent passing game struggles, they simply lack the talent and acumen to take over a game.
Hall is a bigger concern, though the Falcons have done a nice job in back-to-back weeks of bottling up opposing running backs. Hall is lethal in space and can run away from defenders, and perhaps the biggest relief for the Falcons is that much less useful back Isaiah Davis is generally the Jets’ third and fourth down option of choice. Atlanta will need to be disciplined to avoid giving Hall the room to make the kind of big plays he excels at, which are the same kinds of plays that occasionally doom this Falcons defense (think Jonathan Taylor).
The Jets have scored over 22 points just four out of their 11 games, however, so this is hardly a juggernaut offense. If the Falcons simply are reasonably healthy, put pressure on Taylor, and avoid major miscues, they’ll keep things within reach for the offense.
That offense, by the way, has a prime matchup against the Jets run defense. While a so-so New England rushing attack and struggling Baltimore ground game generated under 200 yards combined the last two weeks, New York has allowed over 120 yards on the ground in seven of their 11 games. Trading away Quinnen Williams took away their best run defender, and while this team has the talent to hold opposing ground games in check, in practice they’ve largely been able to do so. Getting Bijan Robinson into space and letting Tyler Allgeier bulldoze defenders should be the plan of the week. We should see more of those three tight end sets to try to help that duo get the room they need to work, but I’ve very confident the ground game will carry the day.
It kind of has to. Kirk Cousins was better last week but still will be without Drake London, and now has to work against a much better pass rush. Will McDonald is a monster in the making for the Jets, with seven sacks on the year, and this is a team capable of generating pressure from all three levels of the defense, even if it’s not consistent. Cousins still can’t really escape from that pressure, so it’ll be up to the Falcons to mix in some play action, offer up extra blockers, and do what they can to keep him comfortable while trying to limit his passing attempts. If he can be a capable steward of the offense again, the Falcons will probably win; if he’s a bit of a disaster, they could be in trouble.
Oh, and keep an eye on the return game, where the Jets have multiple capable options on kickoffs and punts who could create nightmares for Atlanta’s dismal coverage teams.
Still, the Falcons are the better football team, even if the gap isn’t as wide as any of us would like. They should be able to win this one if they can just play as well as they did against the Saints, which was hardly the Falcons are their best. They certainly can’t afford to lose this game and make any pretense about there being something to play for outside of pride the rest of the way.