Strap in, friends, I’m here to predict the improbable and sometimes ridiculous with reckless abandon. Bold Predictions: Week 13, AFC West Edition. If you’re looking for logic-supported certainty, this ain’t it. These are swing-out-of-my-jock Hail Mary’s brewed from malts & hops and my many, many, poor life choices. I do look at the schedule and matchup data, if that makes you more comfy. Bold Predictions: AFC West Edition, Week 13. Can you dig it?
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes
Nov 2, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) reacts in the second half against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
Mahomes Torches Dallas for 330+ Passing Yards and 3 Touchdowns in Jerry World
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Why It Will Happen: Dallas’ back seven has been a turnstile all season, bleeding explosive passes and 30-plus points a game. Indoors on a fast track against an aggressive man-heavy scheme, this is exactly the kind of matchup where Mahomes and Andy Reid spam choice routes to Rice and Kelce until the Cowboys tap out.
Why It Won’t Happen: If the Chiefs’ protection breaks down (hello Quinnen Williams) on a short week and Reid has to keep extra bodies in to block, the route combinations get predictable, and the ball comes out shorter than you want. A couple of early drops or tipped balls turning into picks, and suddenly, Reid is managing the game on the road instead of hunting a fireworks show.
Ground-and-Pound Thanksgiving: Pacheco and Hunt Combine for 175 Scrimmage Yards and 2 Scores
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Why It Will Happen: Isiah Pacheco is pushing to return from his MCL sprain, and in his absence, Kareem Hunt just handled 30 carries for 104 bruising yards against Indy, proving this line can mash when Reid actually commits to the run. Dallas just played an emotional war with Philly and now has to deal with two downhill backs on a short turnaround, which is a pretty good recipe for missed tackles and fourth-quarter chunk runs.
Why It Won’t Happen: If Dak and that Cowboys offense jump out early, Reid will do what he always does and put the game entirely in Mahomes’ hands, even if the run is working. And if Pacheco’s snap count is limited in his first game back, you are one Hunt stuff in the backfield away from Reid shrugging and going right back to 45 throws.
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Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix is interviewed after the game against the Dallas Cowboys at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
Bo Nix Delivers 3 Total Touchdowns in His First True Prime-Time Showcase
Why It Will Happen: Denver is 9-2 on an eight-game heater, and Sean Payton has slowly opened the playbook as Nix has stacked efficient, late-game wins, including 295 yards in that walk-off victory over the Chiefs. Washington’s defense is reeling, their head coach just yanked play-calling responsibilities around, and they’ve been giving up big chunks and short fields to everyone as the losses pile up.
Why It Won’t Happen: FedEx Field in late November can turn into a mud pit, and Payton may decide the easiest way to get out alive is 35 carries, a couple of shot plays, and an early bus. If Denver’s protection has any leaks and the Commanders’ front finally plays to its talent for a night, Nix’s job shrinks to hitting layups and avoiding the one big mistake.
Broncos Defense Strangles Washington: 5+ Sacks, 3 Takeaways, and Fewer Than 14 Points Allowed
Why It Will Happen: The Commanders are 3-8, riding a long losing streak, and are almost certainly rolling with Marcus Mariota again as Jayden Daniels remains a long shot to play coming off that dislocated elbow. Denver’s defense has been feasting during this win streak, and a desperate, turnover-prone offense behind a shaky line is exactly how you end up with strip-sacks, tipped picks, and a national audience wondering why this game did not get flexed.
Why It Won’t Happen: This has classic “sleepwalk” potential: road favorite, bye-week hangover, and a locker room hearing all week how they’re the No. 1 seed. If Payton’s offense sputters early and gives Washington extra possessions, even a bad unit can stumble into a couple of scoring drives and keep the sack/turnover script from fully snowballing.
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) warms up before the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie -Imagn Images
Herbert and Harbaugh Finally Hang 30+ as the Chargers Torch Las Vegas
Why It Will Happen: Coming off the bye, Justin Herbert has 2,691 yards and 19 touchdowns already, and this offense sits top-10 in yardage even while underachieving on the scoreboard. The Raiders roll in at 2-9, just fired Chip Kelly after ranking near the bottom of the league in almost every offensive metric, and now have to keep up with a rested passing game in a controlled SoFi environment.
Why It Won’t Happen: Red-zone funk has been the Chargers’ brand for years, and a couple of bogged-down drives ending in field goals can keep that final total in the mid-20s again. If the Raiders’ pass rush, led by Maxx Crosby, wins enough one-on-ones and forces Harbaugh to lean into Kimani Vidal (or Omarion if he’s back) and the ground game, the volume simply will not be there for a full-blown explosion.
Chargers Pass Rush Turns SoFi into a Sack Party with 5+ Sacks on Raiders QBs
Why It Will Happen: Herbert gets all the headlines, but this Chargers defense has been top-five in yardage allowed and top-10 against the pass, and Tuli Tuipulotu plus that front has been living in backfields. On the other side, Geno Smith has been a turnover machine with 13 interceptions, behind an offense that just got its coordinator fired and is now re-wiring protections on the fly before facing a loud road crowd.
Why It Won’t Happen: If Pete Carroll decides he is done watching Geno get teed off on and leans into quick game and wide-zone runs with Ashton Jeanty, the ball can come out fast enough to blunt the rush. And if the Chargers grab an early lead, they may shift into a softer shell to bleed clock rather than keep dialing up exotic pressures.
Las Vegas Raiders
Nov 17, 2025; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith (7) looks to pass downfield against the Dallas Cowboys during the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Post-Kelly Shakeup: Raiders Finally Crack 24 Points Again
Why It Will Happen: Nothing wakes up a locker room like firing a big-name offensive coordinator; Pete Carroll now has the freedom to strip this thing down, lean into quick throws, and simplify the run game so Geno can actually play on time. The Chargers are excellent at limiting yardage, but they are only league-average in points allowed, and a couple of short fields off special teams or a busted coverage to Tyler Lockett or Brock Bowers is all it takes to push this into a real shootout.
Why It Won’t Happen: There is a reason Kelly got canned: this unit has lived in third-and-long, ranks near the bottom in EPA and red-zone efficiency, and Geno has matched his 13 touchdowns with 13 back-breaking picks. Changing the voice on the headset does not magically fix protection issues, route spacing, or a young back averaging 3.6 yards a carry behind a middling line.
Raiders Drag the Chargers into a One-Score Game in the Fourth Quarter
Why It Will Happen: Division games get stupid, and even at 2-9 this group has enough veterans – Geno, Lockett, Crosby, Koonce – to play their mad-as-hell card after a week of hearing about being last in every power ranking and watching their quarterback get roasted for flipping off fans. A couple of early stops, Carlson field goals, and a sudden-change touchdown off a turnover, and suddenly the Chargers are right back in their familiar spot: sweating out a one-possession game they should have put away.
Why It Won’t Happen: The more likely script is that Harbaugh’s team jumps on them early, SoFi turns into a home crowd for the Chargers, and the Raiders’ shaky pass protection forces Geno into chase-mode hero ball again. If that happens, you are looking at another multi-turnover afternoon, a frustrated sideline, and another week of national talk shows asking how long Carroll can keep riding this version of his roster.
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