For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 13 NFL picks, Thanksgiving and Black Friday edition. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not necessarily cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
051020PackersLogo2020
Packers at Lions (-3): Over their last six games, the Lions just haven't been a very impressive team, despite their obvious talent on offense. Good defenses like the Chiefs, Vikings, and Eagles have figured out ways to stop the Lions' rushing attack, and then gotten after Jared Goff.
When opposing defenses have been able to slow down the Lions' rushing attack, they have had success. As you can see in the chart below, the Lions have had four games this season in which they have had under 100 rushing yards. Notice what those games all have in common.
Opponent Lions rushing yards Points scored Result
Packers 46 13 L
Bears 177 52 W
Ravens 224 38 W
Browns 109 34 W
Bengals 118 37 W
Chiefs 98 17 L
Buccaneers 164 24 W
Vikings 65 24 L
Commanders 226 44 W
Eagles 74 9 L
Giants 237 34 W
The Packers have the No. 6 rush defense in the NFL, and as you can see from the chart above, they shut down the Lions' run game Week 1. The Lions will also be without their starting LG, Christian Mahogany, and their starting center, Graham Glasgow.
I'm not a big Jordan Love fan, and I'm further concerned by a shoulder injury on his non-throwing arm, but the Packers should get a boost by the return of RB Josh Jacobs.
I think people might be expecting this to be a high scoring game. Give me the Packers to win outright in an ugly one.
090920ChiefsLogo2020
Chiefs (-3) at Cowboys: With their backs against the wall, the Chiefs pulled out a major win against the Colts Week 12, boosting their playoff odds. Similarly, the Cowboys would've basically been dead in the water had they lost to the Eagles last Sunday, but they scratched and clawed their way back from a 21-0 deficit and saved their season (for now).
The Eagles were able to have success initially against the Cowboys' poor defense, but they took their foot off the gas and when they they tried to turn it back on the Cowboys had adjusted and the Eagles had no answers.
The Chiefs won't be out-schemed and outcoached like the Eagles were. They'll score points, and I like Steve Spagnuolo's chances of creating some big plays on defense against this explosive but mistake-prone Cowboys offense.
Ravenslogo2020
Bengals at Ravens (-7): After Week 6, the Steelers were 4-1, and the Ravens were 1-5, and yet, it always felt to me that once Lamar Jackson returned to the lineup the Ravens would eventually catch/overtake the Steelers. I didn't think it would happen this quickly, though, as the Ravens and Steelers are now both 6-5, with the Ravens being 2-0 in the division.
Joe Burrow is (perhaps foolishly) returning for the Bengals in this game, but it doesn't matter. They're done, and the Ravens are rolling.
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Bears at Eagles (-7): It's easy to dismiss the Bears despite their 8-3 record because they have beaten a lot of bad quarterbacks and they have a point differential of -3.
But the Bears are on their way to being contenders, as they have built a good roster on offense, run by one of the best schemers / play callers in the NFL in Ben Johnson. Under Johnson, second-year quarterback Caleb Williams has taken a major step forward this season. Williams is playing behind a much improved offensive line; and he is throwing to a good group of wide receivers in Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, and Luther Burden, to go along with a nice TE duo in Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet. The Bears also have a speed/power combo at running back in D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, who are a poor man's version of what Johnson had to work with in Detroit in Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. It's an offense that gets contributions from around 8 different skill position players.
The Bears can score points. They just can't stop teams from scoring on them. They are allowing 362.8 yards per game and 26.5 points per game, both of which are 6th worst in the NFL. They are also razor thin at linebacker, and might also be without some of their starting defensive backs.
This is a matchup of good-on-good, when it's the Bears' offense vs. the Eagles' defense, and bad-on-bad, when it's the Eagles' offense against the Bears' defense.
In my opinion, the Eagles' defense has more talent than the Bears' offense, and the Eagles' offense has more talent than the Bears' defense. But can the Birds' coaching staff hang with an opposing staff?
Give me the Eagles to win the game, but I do like the Bears to cover the 7-point spread.
Non-Eagles rooting guide
Normally, we have a rooting guide each week for non-Eagles games on the NFL schedule. We'll just cover the Thanksgiving and Black Friday games here:
• Packers at Lions: Long-term, the Lions are more dangerous than the Packers, in my opinion, at least if they can get healthy. They are in danger of missing the playoffs, which would be a good outcome for all the NFC playoff teams.
• Chiefs at Cowboys: The sooner the Eagles can wrap up the NFC East, the sooner they breathe a little sigh of relief.
• Bengals at Ravens: The more games the Bengals lose, the more likely it is that they will get a better draft pick than the Giants and/or Commanders.
Survivor pick ☠️
I won't be picking any of the teams playing on Thanksgiving or Black Friday in my survivor pool, because, well, I already used five of them. Spoiler: I hate that I'm putting any trust in the Chargers, because they have so consistently screwed me over the years, but they're going to be my pick. We'll cover that in more depth on Sunday.
Week 1: Eagles ✅
Week 2: Ravens ✅
Week 3: Bills ✅
Week 4: Broncos ✅
Week 5: Lions ✅
Week 6: Packers ✅
Week 7: Chiefs ✅
Week 8: Colts ✅
Week 9: Rams ✅
Week 10: Seahawks ✅
Week 11: Patri*ts ✅
Week 12: 49ers ✅
Week 13: Chargers
• Picks against the spread: Packers (+3), Chiefs (-3), Bears (+7).
• Eagles picks: 8-3
• 2025 season, straight up: 117-60-1 (0.660)
• 2025 season, ATS: 28-39-1 (0.419) 😕
• 2024 season, straight up: 205-80 (0.719)
• 2024 season, ATS: 62-44-3 (0.583)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)
• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510)
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500)
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
• Last 11 seasons, ATS: 477-415-23 (0.535)
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