The Cincinnati Bengals are 3-8 entering their pivotal Week 13 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. While Joe Burrow is coming back, the Bengals will be without Tee Higgins and Trey Hendrickson in this Thanksgiving matchup.
With an uphill battle against an ascending Ravens team, a loss is a very realistic possibility. The Ravens matchup well against the Bengals, making a win in Week 13 a tall task for Burrow in his return.
A win would keep the Bengals alive in the AFC North race, as they have one more matchup against the Ravens and could make up ground there. But, while the Bengals' winning would keep their playoff hopes alive, what would a loss do?
How Bengals would be impacted by a loss in Week 13 on Thanksgiving to Ravens
Ali Bhanpuri of NFL.com has the Bengals' playoff odds if they win at just one percent, while a loss would have Cincinnati at a 0% chance of making the playoffs. While they'd be at 0% odds, they would technically still be alive.
The Bengals would be 3-9, while the Ravens would be 7-5. With just five weeks left, the Bengals would need to win out, and the Ravens would need to lose out for their spots to flip in the division.
In such a scenario, the Bengals would be 8-9, and the Ravens would be 7-10. However, there is a major issue for the Bengals even in such a scenario. The Pittsburgh Steelers, at 6-5, play the Ravens once more this season.
Meaning that if the Bengals lose in Week 13 to the Ravens, then the Ravens would need to lose in Week 14 to spot the Steelers one more win, putting both Baltimore and Pittsburgh at seven wins.
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To put this in perspective, if the Bengals lose on Thanksgiving, not only would they need the Ravens to lose out, but the Bengals would need the Steelers to lose all of their remaining games, other than when they play the Ravens in Week 14.
Put another way: if the Bengals lose in Week 13 on Thanksgiving night, and the Steelers win in Week 13 against the Buffalo Bills, or win any game other than the Ravens matchup, then the Bengals wouldn't be able to win the AFC North.
So, while the Bengals wouldn't be eliminated if they lost on Thanksgiving to the Ravens, their playoff odds would be all but zero. Technically, they wouldn't be eliminated unless the Steelers win on Sunday.
But as of Thursday night, regardless of whether Cincinnati beats the Ravens or not, the Bengals cannot be eliminated from playoff contention. Their odds would be very slim, but there would at least be a chance of such a wild scenario happening.
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