Arch Manning’s 2026 draft picture just took a sharp turn upward, and the shift came from someone who actually studies quarterbacks for a living. On November 27, former Wisconsin QB Nate Tice said Manning would be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft if he entered the race today. That’s a massive pivot considering how quickly people buried him after that ugly Ohio State opener. This new angle brings his season back into focus, and it honestly reshapes everything.
Nate said, “I’mnot hot-taking this right now. I am dead serious. He is playing really freaking good football. I know people see the end game stuff, but tools, body of work, he’s the whole freaking offense at Texas. His ability to create, his pocket movement, his deep-ball ability, his ability to throw at an awkward angle, and his ridiculous core strength. Yeah, he would be the No. 1 pick. He’s really freaking good, guys. I know the hype train has cooled down, but it should start building right back up, because Arch Manning: really, really good.”
Nate Tice: Arch Manning would be No. 1 pick in 2026 NFL Draft if he declared https://t.co/eLZNNsTZF9 pic.twitter.com/tdxbX5vsxP
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) November 27, 2025
Arch Manning is Finally Backing Up the Prospect Hype
NCAA Football: Vanderbilt at Texas
Nov 1, 2025; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) warms up before a game against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images
Manning’s rise makes more sense when you look at how far he climbed from the early mess. Texas opened the season at No. 1, and he carried all the weight that comes with a Manning last name. Then the Longhorns stumbled to a 3–2 record. They dropped out of the Top 25. Critics labeled him a bust before October even settled in. He did not hide from any of it. He said, “I was bad. I was playing like garbage.” And that honesty matched the tape at the time. He struggled reading defenses. He missed open receivers. He took hit after hit behind a rebuilt offensive line.
Meanwhile, the national noise grew louder each week. Social media roasted every snap. Headlines questioned whether he should even start. Even teammates saw how much heat he took. Safety Michael Taaffe called him the most hated person in all of college football. Manning kept going. He kept showing up. He kept absorbing the criticism without turning on the locker room.
Then everything shifted. He got knocked out of the Mississippi State win with a concussion, but he returned sharper than he left. Over the last four games, he threw for 1,314 yards and 11 touchdowns and added two more on the ground. Those numbers align with the part of the season where Texas needed him to keep their faint playoff hopes alive. They explain why he re-entered the Heisman conversations on national broadcasts. And they show why Tice now connects him to the No. 1 pick conversation.
Texas coach Steve Sarkisian also backed the turnaround. He said no college player carried more pressure before even becoming a full-time starter. And he credited Manning for pushing through all of it instead of breaking under it. That aligns with the fans who believe he matured with a season full of hits to both his body and reputation.
When you stack all that together, Manning’s new draft outlook stops feeling like hype. It reflects the actual arc of his season. It reflects the adversity he pushed through and demonstrates the surge that put him back where everyone expected him to be at the start of the year.