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How Heat can advance in NBA Cup. And Herro’s return, Spoelstra’s tough calls

Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro (14) and teammates react as the Heat lead in the second half of their NBA basketball game against the Milwaukee Bucks at Kaseya Center at Miami, FL, on Wednesday, November 26, 2025. PHOTO BY AL DIAZ adiaz@miamiherald.com

A Heat season that has produced one pleasant surprise after another also has spawned several neat storylines.

Among those to emerge from this ongoing six-game winning steak, a 13-6 overall start and Tyler Herro’s highly-efficient first two games back from ankle surgery:

▪ The Heat’s NBA Cup dreams remain alive, with clarity coming Friday night.

Miami - which next plays on Saturday night against visiting Detroit in a non-Cup game - would clinch its first-ever berth in the eight-team knockout round of the early-season tournament if the Bucks beat the Knicks on Friday night in New York (7:30 p.m., Amazon Prime).

A Milwaukee win would give the Heat “the Group C” title, by virtue of its 3-1 record in group play and the head to head tiebreaker over the Bucks, who lost 106-103 to the Heat on Wednesday.

But even if the Knicks win, Miami still can qualify for the eight-team knockout round as the Eastern Conference’s single “wild card,” which goes to the team that doesn’t win its group but has the best record among the second-place teams in the three groups.

If the Knicks win Friday, Miami would be the Eastern Conference’s wild card team if its point differential in Cup games (plus 49) isn’t exceeded by Cleveland or Orlando.

If Cleveland - which has outscored teams by 33 in Cup games - wins in Atlanta by at least 17 points on Friday night, the Cavs would beat out the Heat for the wild card if it comes to that.

The winner of Friday’s Orlando at Detroit game wins Group B and advances to the knockout round. If Detroit (2-1) beats Orlando (3-0), the Pistons would need to win by at least 13 points for the Heat to beat out the Magic in the battle for the one “wild card” spot. Orlando enters with a plus 61 point differential in group play.

If teams competing in the wild card have the same point differential, total points scored in group play would be the next qualifier (Miami leads Cleveland by 138 points and Orlando by 135). Regular-season record from last regular season is the fourth tiebreaker.

▪ Herro’s splendid return.

Miami’s 2025 All-Star representative followed Monday’s 24-point (12 for 18 shooting), 7-rebound, 3-steal season debut in a win against Dallas with a 29-point (9 of 15), 7-rebound, 5-assist game in Wednesday’s win against a Bucks team missing Giannis Antetokounmpo.

“I’m just trying to play off the catch,” he said. “I did that last year as well, and then that’s what I’m doing right now. I’m just trying to play off the catch and trying to create advantages in transition where I can get downhill or get to my spot before the defense gets set.

“And then in the half court, I’m just trying to make the right play. I feel like as I get my legs and my feet under me, I’m going to be able to playmake more and get into the paint more. I still have to strengthen my foot and feel fully comfortable jumping off my foot and exploding off my foot. It’s going to be a process for a couple weeks until I can fully feel comfortable.”

Spoelstra, who was doused by champagne by his players after winning his 800th game Wednesday, marveled at Herro’s efficiency so quickly after returning. “It’s not easy to be out a significant amount of time and come back looking like you haven’t missed a day,” Spoelstra said.

Notably, only seven of Herro’s 33 field goal attempts (21.2 percent) have been threes. Last year, it was 48.6 percent.

“As the season continues and I get my feet and my legs under me, I’m trying to shoot all threes and layups again,” he said. “Obviously, floaters are cool. But I feel like that’s my best shot diet.”

▪ A healthy roster (for the first time all season) and the difficult lineup decisions that come it.

With every player available Wednesday except Terry Rozier (on leave) and Kasparas Jakucionis (on a G-League assignment), Spoelstra opened with Herro, Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell and Andrew Wiggins.

Spoelstra went 10 deep, but Jaime Jaquez Jr. - who has had a glorious start to his third season - played only the ninth most minutes (17), on a 10-point, 4-rebound, 3-assist night. That’s down from his 29.7 average for the season.

Nikola Jovic, who had been averaging 21.4 minutes per game, didn’t play at all in his first game back after missing four games with a right hip impingement.

Ware, who had started 9 of the 11 previous games, moved to the bench and played 26 minutes, on par with his 25-minutes-per-game season average.

Pelle Larsson, who had started the previous 15 games, came off the bench and played 21 minutes, similar to his 23.0 season average.

With the game tight late, Spoelstra closed with his starting group, moving Ware to the bench in the final two-plus minutes even though Myles Turner feasted when he was out of the game.

“I don’t feel stressed out about it,” Spoelstra said of rotation decisions with everyone healthy. “I feel for guys that, one, either might not be playing or that have less minutes and a little bit of a changed role than what it’s been. But that’s what happens if you have depth. And then everybody will get their opportunities.

“It might not be every single night, it might not be exactly what they want. But I think we have a mature locker room. They understand that. And this will get a lot better quickly. We’ll just figure out what works the best, and we’ll get to those lineups more often.”

▪ The Adebayo/Ware conundrum.

After starting in tandem from mid-January through the end of the season, Adebayo and Ware have started eight games together this season. Miami is 6-2 in those games, though the Heat is a minus 12 in their 222 minutes together.

On Wednesday, Spoelstra played them seven minutes together. The Heat outscored the Bucks by a team-high 16 points with Ware on the court but was outscored by 11 with Adebayo on the floor.

The 6-11 Turner did most of his damage with Ware on the bench.

“That was a loud 11 [points] and 9 [rebounds] that we needed,” Adebayo said of Ware’s night. “If he doesn’t get 11 and 9, we lose the game. It might not be 20 and 18 every night.”

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