The NFL playoff picture is messier than your aunt’s house after Thanksgiving dinner.
On Thursday, the Week 13 slate began on Turkey Day with the Packers visiting the Lions and beating them, 31–24, earning a season sweep of Detroit. Green Bay is now 8-3-1, putting it percentage points behind the Bears in the NFC North.
Chicago takes on the Eagles in Philadelphia for the Black Friday game, which means the Bears will either be the No. 2 seed going into the weekend, or the No. 6.
Elsewhere, there are a ton of massive games ahead this week including the Chiefs and Cowboys in Dallas on Thursday afternoon, the Texans and Colts tangling on Sunday in the early window and the Steelers hosting the Bills in a key AFC battle. In the NFC, keep an eye on the Rams and Panthers, who are facing each other on Sunday in Charlotte.
Let’s now get to the playoff pictures, starting with the AFC.
Sign Up. SI NFL Newsletter. Get MMQB's Free Newsletter. dark
No. 1: New England Patriots
Record: 10–2 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 99%
The Patriots will host the two-win Giants on Monday Night Football, attempting to win their 11th game of the season.
No. 2: Denver Broncos
Record: 9–2 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 96%
The Broncos are coming off their bye and will travel to play the Commanders on Sunday Night Football, likely facing Marcus Mariota.
No. 3: Indianapolis Colts
Record: 8–3 | Opponents left above .500: 6 | Playoff probability: 88%
After losing two of their last three games, the Colts are going home to play at Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time in a month, taking on the Texans.
No. 4: Baltimore Ravens
Record: 6–5 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 86%
Baltimore will host Joe Burrow and the Bengals on Thanksgiving night, looking to take a half-game lead in the AFC North over Pittsburgh.
No. 5: Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 7–4 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 59%
The Chargers are fresh off their bye and now get the closest thing to a double-bye, getting to host the Raiders at SoFi Stadium.
No. 6: Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 7–4 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 76%
Jacksonville escaped from Arizona with an overtime win last week, and now have a shorter trip this week to play against the one-win Titans.
No. 7: Buffalo Bills
Record: 7–4 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 80%
After falling against the Texans last Thursday night, Buffalo had a mini-bye and now visits the Steelers this Sunday in the late window.
No. 1: Los Angeles Rams
Record: 9–2 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 99%
After beating the Buccaneers on Sunday night in dominant fashion, the Rams travel cross-country to face the 6–6 Panthers in the early window on Sunday.
No. 2: Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 8–3 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 99%
Following a loss in which the Eagles blew a 21–0 lead to the Cowboys, Philadelphia will host the Bears in the Black Friday game.
No. 3: Chicago Bears
Record: 8–3 | Opponents left above .500: 5 | Playoff probability: 49%
The Bears have been rolling lately with a litany of one-score wins. They now try to keep the magic going against the Eagles, with a Black Friday matinee in Philadelphia.
No. 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 6–5 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 74%
Baker Mayfield is dealing with a left shoulder injury, making it likely the Buccaneers have to start Teddy Bridgewater against the Cardinals in their home game on Sunday.
No. 5: Seattle Seahawks
Record: 8–3 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 93%
Seattle handled business last weekend against the Titans, and now get the Vikings with rookie undrafted free agent quarterback Max Brosmer getting the start against Seattle.
Green Bay Packers defensive end Micah Parsons celebrates.
The Packers’ defense dominated the Lions’ point of attack on Thursday. / Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images
No. 6: Green Bay Packers
Record: 8–3–1 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 83%
The Packers beat the Lions on Thanksgiving, putting them in position to jump into the NFC North lead come Friday evening should the Eagles beat the Bears in Philadelphia.
No. 7: San Francisco 49ers
Record: 7–4 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 89%
After beating the Panthers on Monday night despite three Brock Purdy interceptions, San Francisco is headed to Cleveland for an early afternoon game against the Browns.
More NFL on Sports Illustrated