Week 13 delivers one of the most impactful divisional matchups of the 2025 NFL season as the Houston Texans head to Lucas Oil Stadium for a showdown with the AFC South-leading Indianapolis Colts. The Texans enter Week 13 riding a three-game win streak. CJ Stroud also returns from injury. With the Colts protecting an undefeated home record, this battle could redefine the AFC playoff picture. It’s strength vs. strength: the NFL’s top-scoring offense against one of the league’s stingiest defenses. Only one can leave with control of the division.
Week 13 Challenge
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) looks on in the second half against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
© Denny Medley-Imagn Images
The Texans enter with renewed momentum after surviving three weeks without Stroud. They have leaned on a dominant defense and steady quarterback play from Davis Mills to climb to 6–5. Now, Stroud is cleared and returns as a full participant in practice. As such, Houston’s offense regains the dynamic downfield element that made it one of the most efficient passing units in football. Stroud’s timing, accuracy, and play-action command will be crucial against the Colts. Houston also brings one of the NFL’s top-ranked scoring defenses. They allow just 16.5 points per game. Edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr can wreck game plans on their own. If the Texans are going to narrow the division gap, it will start with pressuring Daniel Jones.
For the Colts, this matchup comes at a precarious time. Despite holding an 8–3 record and fielding the most explosive offense in the NFL, Indianapolis showed vulnerabilities in recent weeks. Jonathan Taylor has been spectacular, though. He paces the league in rushing and serves as the offense’s centerpiece. However, the Texans boast one of the league’s tightest run defenses. The real concern is Jones’ health. Yes, the injury is reportedly tolerable. That said, his mobility could be severely limited. The Colts are also a perfect 6–0 at home, turning Lucas Oil Stadium into one of the toughest venues for opposing teams. Still, Houston’s defensive discipline, paired with the emotional and tactical lift of Stroud’s return, gives this matchup an unpredictable, playoff-like energy.
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Here we will look at and discuss some bold predictions for the game between the Texans and the Colts in Week 13 of the 2025 NFL season.
Daniel Jones forced into multiple turnovers
Houston's stout defense faces a compromised quarterback behind a pass protection unit that has been inconsistent even when fully healthy. Daniel Jones will play through a fractured leg. That drastically increases the likelihood of breakdowns under pressure. With Hunter and Anderson capable of winning on both edges, Houston will force at least two interceptions and a fumble. Jones’ inability to escape pressure becomes one of the game’s defining factors.
Jonathan Taylor held under 70 rushing yards
Stopping Taylor is never easy. The Texans, though, have the personnel and scheme to do it. Their front seven has smothered elite backs all season. They have allowed some of the fewest yards per carry in the league. Houston will load the box early, swarm Taylor between the tackles, and force Indianapolis to lean on a limping quarterback. Holding Taylor below the 70-yard mark is bold. Still, it's entirely plausible given Houston’s gap discipline and sure tackling.
CJ Stroud has 300-yard passing game
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Stroud’s concussion absence slowed Houston’s offense. However, his return immediately reopens the vertical playbook. The Colts’ defense also ranks 28th in passing yards allowed and has been repeatedly exposed by crossers, play-action, and deep intermediate routes. Stroud thrives in all three areas. Expect him to test Indianapolis early. That's particularly true in matchups featuring Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins against a secondary that has struggled in man coverage. With three weeks of rest and a favorable matchup, Stroud surpasses 300 passing yards. He reestablishes himself as Houston’s offensive catalyst.
Dalton Schultz scores two receiving touchdowns
Indianapolis has been vulnerable to tight ends all season. They have consistently given up red-zone completions to seam routes and play-action boot concepts. Schultz becomes a central piece of Houston’s scoring strategy. Between misdirection, RPO looks, and Stroud’s ability to manipulate linebackers, Schultz will secure two touchdowns. He will have one on a traditional red-zone route and another on a schemed-up play-action design.
The Texans pull off the upset
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) reacts during the second half against the San Francisco 49ers at NRG Stadium.
Sean Thomas-Imagn Images
The Colts have been unbeatable at home. However, this week presents their most difficult matchup of the season. Houston’s defense is built to attack Indianapolis’ specific vulnerabilities. Stroud’s return transforms the Texans’ offensive outlook. With momentum, matchup advantages, and an aggressive defensive identity, the Texans shock the division leaders on their home field. Houston pulls within one game of the AFC South crown and sends a message. They are not just contenders. They’re threats.
Looking ahead
With Stroud back, the defense surging, and a favorable stylistic matchup, Houston enters Week 13 fully capable of flipping the AFC South race on its head. If all these play out, the Texans won’t just leave Indianapolis with an upset. They will leave as legitimate threats to steal the division before season’s end.