Halfway through the 2025 NFL season, it looked like the Indianapolis Colts had all but wrapped up the AFC South crown and had their sights set on the top seed in the conference when the playoffs rolled around. fast-forward a few weeks, and things are looking much different.
Now, after a crushing overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 12, the Colts come into Week 13 at 8-3 with just a one-game lead in the division over the Jacksonville Jaguars and a two-game advantage over the Houston Texans. Indianapolis has not played either team yet, so four of its last six games this season will be against its closest competitors in the division.
First up will be the Texans on Sunday. The Colts will have the home-field advantage, but this is a hot Houston squad coming off of a big win over the Buffalo Bills and a mini-bye after playing on Thursday Night Football. The Texans also look like they are getting quarterback CJ Stroud back after a three-game absence due to a concussion.
Instead, it is Colts quarterback Daniel Jones who is the beat-up one coming into this game. Jones has been dealing with a fractured fibula and has been limited in practice all week leading up to the Texans game, which could spell trouble for an already-struggling offense coming into a game against arguably the league's best defense.
Can the Colts get back on track and slow this Texans defense down? Or will it be another dominant week for DeMeco Ryans and company?
First down is the key for both teams on Sunday
Houston Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr. (51) celebrates after sacking Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) in the first half at NRG Stadium.
Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
The battle on first down will decide this game when the Colts have the ball for a few reasons. The first, and simplest: these are two of the best units in the NFL on first down, and that has played a big part in their success on the season.
By EPA per play, the Colts have the second-best offense in the NFL on first down, gaining 0.12 EPA on those plays. Only the Kansas City Chiefs have a better number entering Week 13. On defense, the Texans lead the NFL by a mile, as opponents are losing a whopping 0.28 EPA per play on first down.
To put it in simple terms, the Colts' success on first downs has dictated whether they win or lose. In Indianapolis' eight wins this season, it has been in the positive in EPA per play on first down in each one of them. In the three losses? The Colts have lost 0.17, 0.26 and 0.42 EPA on those plays.
While the Colts' offense has owned first downs so far this year, Houston has been even more dominant on the defensive side of the ball. Cleveland, in second place, is more than a full tenth of a point behind the Texans in terms of EPA.
Indianapolis surprisingly throws the ball on first down sat the fifth-highest rate in football this season, but that isn't going to fly in this game. Texans opponents are losing 0.40 EPA per pass (!!!!) on first down this season according to Next Gen Stats. The Browns are second at minus-0.19.
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The Texans do this by playing pretty standard ball as well. DeMeco Ryans isn't blitzing a lot, and Houston isn't even getting a ton of pressure on the quarterback. The Texans rush four and play a lot of man coverage, daring opposing offenses to beat them; most of them can't.
Obvious passing situations will be killer for the Colts
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) passes the ball against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first quarter at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
Even pivoting away from the numbers momentarily, obvious passing situations will be disastrous for the Colts on Sunday. Just ask Josh Allen, who took eight sacks on Thursday night against this ferocious pass rush.
The Texans will have the advantage in every way in obvious passing situations. The Colts' offensive line has played pretty well this season, but no group up front has the advantage over a Houston defensive line that is led by Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., possibly the best edge duo in the league.
Daniel Jones is currently playing through a fractured fibula and didn't appear to be moving well in practice on Thursday, where he was listed as a limited participant. If Jones is able to make it out there on Sunday, he could be a sitting duck for this Texans pass rush.
The natural solution to that would be to get the ball out quickly. Unfortunately for the Colts, the Texans play a ton of man coverage and have the corners to do so in Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter. Jalen Pitre, who has been out with a concussion, should also be back in the secondary for this game, which would be a big boost for the Texans.
The Colts have a talented group of wideouts, but Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce aren't exactly naturals at beating tight man coverage underneath. If those guys are gloved up and Josh Downs isn't able to separate in the slot, it could be a long day for the Colts.
With how well the Texans do on early downs, the Colts are sure to find themselves in some of these obvious passing situations throughout Sunday's game. The Texans will have the advantage on those plays, and they could very well get the upper hand in the game as a result.