Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly Q&A, giving his opi nion on Liverpool assets, Igor Thiago (£6.5m), the best Free Hit picks and more.
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Q: When are the best times to Free Hit apart from Gameweek 13?
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A: I have to start this answer with the unfortunate ‘team dependent’ line, but let’s look at it keeping the most popular player pool in mind.
Gameweek 13 represents an opportunity where a lot of established players from Manchester United, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Chelsea play each other. Loads of teams might have 6-7 players in these fixtures alone. Could this result in lots of points if the results go in your favour? Yes. Are these games unpredictable? Also yes.
Anyway, since you ask for windows outside of Gameweek 13, I think Gameweek 15 (primarily because of Newcastle United v Burnley, Liverpool v Leeds United and Manchester City v Sunderland) looks appealing. This works especially if you land in Gameweek 15 with just one transfer; if you have multiple stacked, then you’d be burning them before the transfer top-up in Gameweek 16.
Gameweek 16 is also good – Chelsea play Everton, Arsenal host Wolverhampton Wanderers, Man Utd play Bournemouth and Liverpool face Brighton and Hove Albion. You could even Free Hit out your Man City/Palace players as they square off.
As for Gameweek 17, Man City v West Ham United and Bournemouth v Burnley are the standout fixtures. If you don’t own Antoine Semenyo (£7.9m) or plan to sell him by then, this also works.
The other Gameweeks are in close proximity, and rotation/team selection is much harder to predict.
Q: Triple Captain or Free Hit this Gameweek?
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A: The two best Triple Captain opportunities with Erling Haaland (£14.9m) in mind are Gameweek 13 v Leeds and Gameweek 17 v West Ham.
Haaland already got his rest midweek and should play 90 minutes against Leeds, while the match in Gameweek 17 against West Ham has a Carabao Cup fixture prior to it, which he probably sits out.
Again, this question becomes more team dependent. It’s difficult to have an ideal team this week without a Free Hit, as these are not teams you would usually target. In Gameweek 17, you can get the players you want with the transfers top-up in Gameweek 16. Team dependent, of course, but I think you Free Hit this week and Triple Captain in Gameweek 17.
Q: If you were on a Wildcard, which four or five midfielders would you pick?
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A: My midfield on a Wildcard would be Bruno Fernandes (£8.9m), Bukayo Saka (£10.1m), Yankuba Minteh (£6.2m), Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (£4.9m) and Semenyo. This would be with Jean-Philippe Mateta (£8.1m), Thiago and Haaland up top.
Q: Is Thiago a must-have, and should we be selling Mateta (for Thiago or otherwise)?
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A: Thiago’s fixture this week is great. No team has conceded more goals on their travels than Burnley. But it is worth remembering that Mateta also plays Burnley the week after, while Thiago plays the two north London clubs, Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur, in Gameweeks 12 and 13, and these are obviously not great. I wouldn’t be selling Mateta now, despite his early substitution last week. I think he could do well against Man Utd.
Q: Morgan Rogers is undoubtedly a good pick for those on a Free Hit, but for everyone else, is he good for the medium to longer-term? If not, who in that price bracket is better?
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A: The underlying data for Morgan Rogers (£6.9m) is admittedly poor, but when you watch the player, it’s visible he has his mojo back after his early-season slump. Every touch is more assured, and his passes more measured. He is also arriving in the box a lot more.
In this busy period, you need players who are secure for minutes, and Rogers very much fits the bill. The fixtures are decent too, especially if you can hide him in Gameweek 15. Villa play Wolves, Brighton, Arsenal, West Ham and Man Utd in the next five. He’s a great buy with a free transfer.
Q: Are Liverpool assets worth a punt on a Free Hit? They have been awful.
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A: This is a tricky one. Liverpool have scored only six goals over the last six Gameweeks, but as the image below shows, they are third for expected goals (xG) over that period.
So, chance creation is not a problem; it’s just that they are not putting away these opportunities.
Their defensive numbers have been poor, though. They sit mid-table for non-penalty expected goals conceded (NPxGC, 7.01) and have allowed a whopping 17 big chances. That’s just one fewer than West Ham and Burnley.
So while I would include Mohamed Salah (£14.2m) from Liverpool on a Free Hit, I don’t think I would opt for Virgil van Dijk (£6.0m), despite West Ham’s weakness from set pieces.
Q: Should you keep Antoine Semenyo on a Free Hit?
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A: Bournemouth and Semenyo have both shown a bias towards performing better in home matches, while Sunderland have also demonstrated better resilience at the Stadium of Light.
Good players on penalties can deliver in any game, but I would be tempted to take Semenyo on for this one.
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