The Steelers and the Bills both tumbled down the playoff standings last week and are desperate for a win. I spoke with Matthew Byham of Buffalo Rumblings ahead of this crucial game.
1. Before the season, I think most fans penciled the Bills in for another division title. They are currently the final playoff seed in the AFC. How have they found themselves in this position?
MB : Those darn New England Patriots. The short answer is by losing, especially three games against AFC teams: a home game to the Patriots, an inexcusable blowout in South Beach against the Miami Dolphins, and most recently that painful loss in Week 12 at the Houston Texans. They’ve lost too many of the “wrong” games.
The long answer could extend into a few thousand words on my end, but I won’t ask anyone to suffer that read. Quite honestly, these Bills just aren’t a great team. There are tremendous aspects, namely quarterback Josh Allen and running back James Cook III. Beyond that, things get a bit muddy, and even Allen hasn’t played up to his standard many weeks (mainly those losses).
Truth be told, it feels as though One Bills Drive decided they needed Allen to carry the team in 2025. That sounds foolish in many ways (mostly why wouldn’t they/why would they be so careless), but then you consider what they did at wide receiver, and how they drafted (nearly all defensive players), and then evaluate those moves and realize there’s a lot of pressure on Allen to cover for a lack of blue-chip talent in too many places.
When the run game is humming, they’re a pretty dangerous team. Obviously, that takes a lot of the pressure off of Allen (who is quite the runner of footballs himself, as Steelers fans understand). James Cook is legit, and the Bills probably underpaid him for what he means to the team’s success. He’d be in rarified air if only more passes were sent his way.
2. The Bills’ offense still ranks top-5 in passing, scoring, and rushing, yet the buzz around Buffalo seemingly is that the offense has been disappointing/underachieving. Are the gripes about the offense overblown, or are there legitimate issues?
MB : It’s a bit of both, if that makes sense. A lot of Bills Mafia and a fair number of national/Bills beat analysts see the sky falling, and to those who watch most of the games and tape it rings true. For as much as I enjoy a deep dive into data fueled by stats, it’s also true that stats lie… simply because they don’t account for nuances in 11-on-11 football; they don’t include the eye test.
It’s a Mafia house divided right now, where three camps exist among those who wonder if general manager Brandon Beane is to blame (for personnel choices); whether offensive coordinator Joe Brady is ruining the team’s passing attack and Josh Allen; and then a final group that wonders if something’s off with Allen in 2025.
Within a team where a long-tenured GM and undisputed franchise QB who’s also considered one of the current game’s best, it’s likely that Joe Brady is going to shoulder a lot of blame. He’s refreshingly self-reflective, accountable for missteps and a heck of a guy who’s willing to share his time with reporters in a truly meaningful way. But it’s likely going to come down to him finding a way to make the passing attack look and function less laborious. Still, it’s a question as to whether Brady holds more of the blame in terms of play calling, or if Allen’s just not seeing the field and failing to diagnose defenses the same as in prior seasons. I’m not sure that this season’s results puts Brady on the hot seat, but I suspect most Bills fans believe that needs to be the case. Allen’s not going anywhere, neither is Beane.
Watching Buffalo’s passing attack is frustrating, and a bit boring. Gone are the consistent deep plays — in their place a repetitive intent to get leading wide receiver Khalil Shakir the ball in space behind the line of scrimmage. The team’s true top receiving target has been tight end Dalton Kincaid, when he’s healthy. He’s now staring at missing a fourth-consecutive game due to a hamstring injury. Second-year wide receiver Keon Coleman has found infamy thanks to his two-game benching for missing yet another team meeting. When he’s been on the field, it appears as though he’s playing out of position in a boundary role.
Essentially, every pass catcher aside from the RBs are best-suited to playing out of the slot. That’s not ideal when building a fully functioning receiving unit. It’s a real headache, simply because no one has stepped up to claim the role vacated by Stefon Diggs — and this is almost two seasons later.
Sure, they had to move on from Diggs even at his huge dead-cap figure (the dude is not always the best team player). But if that was the plan, then they needed to have clearly defined next steps that wouldn’t fail. Instead, it’s been one draft pick (Coleman)and a bunch of dart throws at mid-tier or lower free agents. Joshua Palmer was a key target of theirs this past offseason, but he hasn’t played a featured role in any game. Palmer has 18 catches (29 targets) for 272 yards, but 12 of his catches have gone for a first down. He was hurt early in the season, which is when a lot of Buffalo’s passing headaches surfaced.
And back to Cook really quick: If the Bills prefer throwing so many bubble screens to Shakir, it makes little sense why they wouldn’t leverage a RB screen game more often with their best player not named Allen. Cook has 24 receptions (26 targets) for 203 yards and one touchdown. Instead, they take him out in obvious passing downs (namely third down). He’s a home-run threat every time he touches the ball. If the scheme can’t adapt for him on obvious passing downs, it seems like the scheme should be modified.
I’m not certain I answered your question well, but it’s a frustrating and complicated situation with so many gnarly branches to prune.
3. Likewise, the Buffalo defense has been the weaker unit this year and has been decimated with injuries. What are their biggest weaknesses on that side of the ball?
MB : If you’re familiar with the concept of run defense, kindly send what knowledge you have of it to One Bills Drive. The defense isn’t quite as bad as what the Dallas Cowboys roll out, but it’s close. They can’t seem to stop anyone who plays the role of featured back. I’m not sure if they lack the proper tackling fundamentals or aren’t able to maintain position integrity as it relates to both zone and man defense.
The stats show an improved pass rush in 2025, but the interior of the defensive line has been ravaged by running backs… and injury. At one point this season, there were 53 defensive tackles on Injured Reserve (IR). Okay, maybe a few less, but you get the point. The interior’s focal point, defensive tackle Ed Oliver has missed significant games thanks to two separate injuries, and the latest one (torn biceps) has him on IR.
Two players they signed in free agency, old friend Larry Ogunjobi and defensive end Michael Hoecht each missed the first six games of the season following failed PED tests. Upon return, Hoecht was lost for the season due to an Achilles tear suffered in his second game.
Injury is no excuse, but it’s an evil bedfellow for Buffalo’s defense, where their linebacking corps has struggled to stay healthy. Even then, it’s been veteran free-agent Shaq Thompson playing above that of either Terrel Bernard or Matt Milano.
The defensive backfield is the lone bright spot, where father time has zapped speed and agility from the likes of cornerback Tre’Davious White and safety Jordan Poyer, but has left alone their tackling ability and football acumen. That’s proven helpful in bringing along second-year safety Cole Bishop and rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston.
4. Are there any lesser-known, under-the-radar players that Steelers fans should watch out for on Sunday, on either side of the ball?
MB : I’ll share one from each side of the ball (apologies to you, special teams!):
Rookie tight end Jackson Hawes has surprised as a legitimate pass-catching threat. He was drafted by the Bills in the fifth round, and praised for his ability as a blocker. Adding him to the offense has allowed Buffalo to run less looks with six offensive linemen. With Hawes, the Bills now can get that sixth-lineman production while also having him play the role of receiver quite well. He’s not a featured receiver, but he tends to catch the football during key moments. With Kincaid still not practicing in Week 13, Hawes could be in line for more looks.
On defense, it’s the aforementioned Cole Bishop. He drew the ire of many early on even into his second season, but it’s clear now that playing alongside safety Taylor Rapp (who’s now on IR) was detrimental to Bishop’s work. Since Rapp went to IR and Poyer took over, Bishop is an altogether different player. He’s taken on a more explosive play-making rhythm and his play has been among the best of the entire defense in recent weeks. He’s gotten a taste for the football, which I’m certain Aaron Rodgers has noticed on film.
5. FanDuel has Buffalo as 3.5-point favorites. How crucial is this game for the Bills’ playoff chances? And what’s your final score prediction?
MB : I see this as a must-win game for the Bills. I also believe that the playoffs start in Week 13 for Buffalo, which is likely the case for Pittsburgh. It’s unlikely they find a way back to claiming the AFC East, but if they don’t get things sorted out soon they could find themselves on the outside looking in during playoff season.
The Bills should approach each game here on out as an elimination bout. The hope is then that they find their peak at the right time and go on a playoff run for the ages. It’s a lot to expect right now. That said, head coach Sean McDermott said this week that it’s “fun” to be in the hunt at this time. Perhaps he likes the urgency of the current situation. That could pay off if they manage to win enough while not having to constantly chase/maintain the one seed and the level of play that requires.
I don’t trust Bills point spreads in road games because they often play worse away from home. I also, as a general rule, don’t offer final score predictions when it comes to the Buffalo Bills. I predict someone will win, thus avoiding the dreaded tie scenario. It could be either team, given the stakes and what victory means to the two head coaches in this one.