As we’ve been doing for many years now, we break down the Pittsburgh Steelers’ opponent each week, telling you what to expect from a scheme and individual player standpoint. Like last year, Josh Carney and I will cover the opposing team’s offense. I will focus on the scheme, Josh on the players.
Today, our scouting report on the Buffalo Bills’ offense in Week 13 against the Steelers.
Alex’s Scheme Report
Bills Run Game
The Bills have a top-end running game. Buffalo is No. 1 in the NFL averaging more than 147 rushing yards per game. They have gone for at least 87 yards in all 11 games this season and 100-plus in nine of them.
While QB Josh Allen and his legs sure help, RB James Cook is having a fantastic season. He enters Week 13 as one of two players with 1,000 yards rushing, second only to Jonathan Taylor. Cook has done it on 199 carries (third in the NFL) with a strong 57.8 run success rate, 5.4 YPC, and eight touchdowns. He has rushed for at least 100 yards in six games and posted 216 in Week 8 against the Carolina Panthers.
Allen is second on the team with 70 rushes for 331 yards and a whopping 10 rushing scores. His nose for the end zone comes in tight. All 10 have come within the 10-yard line with seven of them between the 1 and 2 yard-line. Hard to stop his QB sneaks.
As a team, the Bills have 39 runs of 10-plus yards. That’s fourth in the NFL.
Conceptually, Buffalo plays a physical brand of football you might not expect. A fullback is regularly featured in No. 41 Reggie Gilliam who averages about 15 offensive snaps per game. Buffalo also does something most teams don’t. The formation aligns into the boundary, otherwise known as FIB. Most teams set the strength to the wide side of the field, the far hash. Not the Bills. Narrower NFL hashmarks make this less impactful than college but it’s still notable. Here’s some examples.
Defenses must then respond by either shifting into the boundary and exposing themselves to the open grass on wide/field side or be outnumbered to the boundary. That’s the dilemma.
Schematically, there’s a lot of duo blocks from Strong-I formations and inside zone runs. Cook has good vision and lateral quickness to find the hole. Examples of both.
Buffalo also likes to run a Dart RPO with the backside tackle pulling.
In short-yardage, alert QB sneaks with Allen and read/options.
Some other stats. Buffalo is averaging 28.3 points per game. That’s fifth league-wide entering Week 13. They have been feast and famine though, scoring 30 points in six games (tied-second behind Indianapolis) but 20 or fewer in only four. The Bills are third in yards per game at 381.8.
Situationally, the Bills rank top-ten on third down (43.3 percent, 4th) and red zone (63.2 percent, 8th). Buffalo does turn the ball over at a high clip. They have 15 of them this season (24th) with exactly three of them in each of the last three games. That’s a trend Pittsburgh must continue.
Bills Pass Game
Led by Josh Allen with ex-Steeler Mitch Trubisky his backup. Allen is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes with 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Over the past three weeks, he has five interceptions and a lost fumble with a game that’s been more volatile as he’s shouldered the load of an offense lacking great talent at the skill positions. Allen was sacked eight times in Week 12’s loss to the Houston Texans.
His home/road splits are worth noting, too. At home, Allen has 13 touchdowns to four interceptions and 10 sacks in six games. On the road, he has just five touchdowns, five interceptions, and 18 sacks in just five games. Pittsburgh being at home this weekend is good news.
WR Khalil Shakir leads the team with a 54/564/3 line. TE Dalton Kincaid is key to the offense even if he’s caught just 29 passes for 448 yards (a 15.4 average) and four touchdowns. WR Keon Coleman has been inactive the last two weeks after missing a meeting but is expected to return for Sunday’s game. He’s caught 32 passes for 330 yards and three touchdowns. Buffalo picked up speedster WR Brandin Cooks earlier this week, and he could play on Sunday.
Buffalo plays with lots of tight splits that open up out-breaking routes. Pittsburgh will have to deal with these looks throughout the game.
Schematically, expect to see a lot of ‘Mesh/Sit/Rail.’ Three words you gotta know in this game. A concept common in Arthur Smith’s playbook, too. The mesh is a dual crossing route with the Y-tight end setting the mesh and a receiver running underneath. That’s to beat man coverage. The “sit” route is an over-the-ball route to settle versus zone. The rail is a wheel route out of the backfield Allen can hit against man and if he likes the matchup. Buffalo runs it a lot.
Out of empty, the Bills like to align the back in an unusual off-set wing. Alert screens thrown this way.
Buffalo has struggled with stunt pickup and blitzers. Lots of free rushers that have been getting after Josh Allen.
I expect Pittsburgh to blitz frequently in this game, even if the Steelers have backed off Josh Allen in the past. Especially if Kincaid sits. Don’t think Pittsburgh will hold back in consecutive games after not blitzing QB Caleb Williams, especially with just one QB hit and minimal pressure on him.
Josh’s Individual Report
It’s Bills week, Steelers fans!
With it comes a massive matchup at Acrisure Stadium between the Buffalo Bills and the Pittsburgh Steelers, one that could have a significant impact in the AFC Wild Card picture.
The Bills ride into town on a bit of a mini-bye week, having played last Thursday against the Houston Texans on the road. Though the Bills lost that game and are banged up in a big way, especially along the offensive line, they have a superstar quarterback in Josh Allen.
The reigning NFL MVP has had a couple of rough weeks recently, with bad performances against the Miami Dolphins and Texans, but he remains an elite quarterback that can do it all.
Allen has a howitzer for an arm, is a dangerous weapon in the designed run game, especially in the red zone, and can extend after the snap and help create significant splash down the field in the passing game.
Sometimes, that belief that he can make any throw, and extend any play costs him as he can make some killer mistakes. But you take the good and the bad with that type of talent.
He’s a master at extending plays, and it makes sense that there are comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger in the process.
He sees the field very well and can make all the throws, even on the move. He doesn’t need to have his feet set to fire darts, much like he does here to wide receiver Tyrell Shavers for the score against Tampa Bay.
The ball just explodes out of Allen’s hand, allowing him to take shots down the field with ease. His accuracy is strong, too, and he can put the ball wherever he wants.
Great throw here against Miami to wide receiver Keon Coleman, giving the big weapon a shot to win down the field.
Where Allen separates himself from other quarterbacks in the NFL of his level is his work as a runner. He can really wear down defenses, and is a major weapon the red zone.
He scored three rushing touchdowns against Tampa Bay in Week 11, and all of them were designed runs.
Outside of Allen, the offense has leaned heavily on running back James Cook as both a runner and a receiver. He’s rewarded them with a Pro Bowl-caliber season. After landing a huge extension ahead of the start of the season, Cook has lived up to expectations.
He’s up to 1,084 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground on just 199 carries. He’s also added another 24 receptions for 203 yards and a touchdown, too. He’s a patient runner with some great footwork and vision, and he has sure hands as a receiver, allowing Allen to truly trust him in any matchup.
He was a strong dual-threat running back coming out of Florida State, but he’s really emerged in recent seasons, and is having his best season as a runner.
The Bills have leaned into him more as a runner, and he’s started to take over for stretches. He’s not a guy that’s going to run through defenders and wear teams down late. But he is going to consistently fall forward and provide the Bills with efficient football.
He can hit the home run, too, making him very dangerous.
The Bills have some questions at receiver, but Allen’s play helps elevate things for Buffalo.
Khalil Shakir is Buffalo’s No. 1 receiving option. He’s at his best as a run-after-catch weapon. He’s a good route runner that creates good separation, and then has the shiftiness to create after the catch, making defenders miss in space and create splash off of it.
He’s not a guy that’s going to stretch the field vertically, but he’s good on crossing routes, and can handle those difficult routes in the middle of the field. He’s unafraid.
On the outside, Coleman was expected to be that big, vertical weapon that thrived under Allen. Though he’s flashed at times, consistency has been a major issue, and it’s led to him being a healthy scratch the last two games.
He could dress against the Steelers and get a shot at redemption, and if he does he’s a guy worth worrying about.
Outside of Shakir and Coleman, the Bills are largely patchwork at the position. Curtis Samuel is banged up and hasn’t been much of a weapon for Buffalo since coming over. He’s made some plays on scramble drills, but he’s been far too inconsistent.
The Bills also have Gabe Davis in the mix. He made some plays against Tampa Bay, and then had an explosive catch against Houston. He’s a big weapon that has good history with Allen. The Steelers did a lot of homework on Davis this offseason and early in the season when he was a free agent, but he chose to go back to Buffalo.
Brandin Cooks joins the mix this week, too, having signed with them after being let go by the New Orleans Saints and clearing waivers early in the week. It’s unlikely he’ll have a huge impact or play a ton of snaps, but there’s a chance he could have an impacted in limited reps against a struggling secondary.
Allen loves to utilize his tight ends, too. Though Dalton Kincaid is unlikely to play this week due to his hamstring injury, Dawson Knox remains a viable weapon for the Bills. He’s a tough-as-nails receiving weapon over the middle, and a great blocker.
Jackson Hawes is a good blocking tight end, too, and has made some plays as a receiver in recent weeks, including hauling in a touchdown against Miami.
Up front, the Bills’ offensive line has been really good. But injuries could have them very shorthanded this week, especially at tackle. Here’s how they could line up left to right on Sunday:
LT — Dion Dawkins
LG — David Edwards
C — Connor McGovern
RG — O’Cyrus Torrence
RT — Ryan Van Demark
One important note. Dawkins remains in concussion protocol, but there’s still a chance he could clear protocol. If he can’t go, then it seems likely Van Demark could shift to left tackle and second-year pro Tyler Grable could come off of IR with a concussion of his own and play against the Steelers.
The interior of the offensive line is very solid. Torrence is a physical, nasty guard that thrives in the run game, while Edwards is quietly very steady as a run blocker and pass protector. McGovern is a good athlete and is very smart at center, helping set everything up for Buffalo’s o-line.
On special teams, Buffalo has been really impressive this season. Matt Prater has helped solidify the kicking game for Buffalo after Tyler Bass’ injury. Prater has connected on 15-of-17 field goals and has come up big at times this season for the Bills.
Punter Mitch Wishnowsky has stepped in to give the Bills a big boost in the punting role. After Cam Johnston went down with an injury and Brad Robbins was ineffective, the Bills turned to Wishnowsky. He’s averaging 45.7 yards per punt and has a long of 61 yards on the season. 12 of his 23 punts have been downed inside the 20-yard line, too.
In the return game, Ray Davis has been impressive in recent weeks. Against Tampa Bay, Davis had a field day in the kick return game. He also has a kick return for touchdown on the season, too, and is averaging 34.4 yards per kick return. He’s dangerous.
Shakir will handle punt returns. He’s dependable back deep and makes good decisions in the return game.
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