**When the Colts have the ball**
The 30,000-foot view here is this game will pit the Colts, the NFL's No. 1 offense in points per game (31.0), EPA per play (+.150) and success rate (40.7 percent) against the Texans, who enter Week 13 No. 2 in points allowed per game (16.5), No. 1 in EPA per play (-.146) and No. 3 in success rate (30 percent).
The Colts have scored on 55.5 percent of their possessions, easily the best in the NFL and the highest since at least 2005...while the Texans have allowed opponents to score on 25.8 percent of their possessions, easily the best in the NFL this season and one of the five lowest rates allowed since 2018.
That's the wide view here.
Zooming in, the Colts have scored 20 points in two of their last three games, resulting in road losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs. But a counter-point is the Colts have scored on a ridiculous 67.4 percent of their possessions (31 of 46) in their five home games, with 20 of those drives ending with a touchdown (43.5 percent).
The question we'll look to answer on Sunday is this: Were the Colts' issues with turnovers and sacks against Pittsburgh, and their offense stalling in the fourth quarter and overtime in Kansas City, the product of playing good defenses on the road or something more concerning?
Back in Week 2, the Colts put up 29 points against the Denver Broncos at Lucas Oil Stadium, scoring on seven of their 10 possessions. Denver's defense and Houston's defense are very much different structurally and schematically – the Broncos blitz at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL, while the Texans are second from the bottom – but they're two of the NFL's top defenses this season: The Broncos are third in points allowed per game (17.5), first in yards per play (4.4), fourth in EPA per play (-.114) and first in success rate (29.7 percent).
But in that Week 2 matchup, the Colts scored 29 points on 7.1 yards per play; the Colts averaged +.135 EPA per play and had a 40.8 percent success rate.
The point is the Colts, earlier this year, found answers against a dominant defense. But finding answers again this week, against a Texans team with a dominant front and an airtight secondary, will be a significant challenge.
Houston's defensive success begins with the defensive end duo of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, who are the first pair of teammates with double-digit sacks through 11 games since 2019. In Houston's 23-19 win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 12, Anderson and Hunter completely wrecked the Bills' offense, combining for 4.5 of the Texans' eight sacks.
"They got a really freaking good pass rush," head coach Shane Steichen said. "Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson are as good as they get right now on the edge."
The Texans are a straightforward defense – they rush four and play coverage with seven defenders behind it on a majority of their snaps, and when the rush four, they stunt their defensive linemen at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL (18.7 percent), per Pro Football Focus. But don't confuse being straightforward for being easy to beat: The Texans' defense might play faster than any other unit the Colts will face this season, and it starts with Anderson and Hunter's ability to generate pressure quickly.
Houston enters Week 13 with the fourth-most pressures in under 2.5 seconds when rushing four players; their total of 101 is well above the league average of 74, per Pro Football Focus.
"When you four-man rush, they've got more coverage on the back end," Steichen said. "We got to be precise in our pass game. We've got to be good in the run game with our IDs and all those things that you go and do each and every week – whether it's four-man rush, five-man rush, six-man rush. We've got to be prepared for all that."
The Colts enter Week 13 allowing the eighth-lowest pressure rate against four pass rushers (30.1 percent). And for whatever consternation may exist about the Colts' offense recently, they're fourth in success rate against four pass rushers (45.4 percent) in Weeks 9-12.
Interestingly, despite Houston's menacing pass rush, the Texans have faced the seventh-highest total of passes traveling at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage (48); teams, though, have not had much success on those throws: Opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of 71 on 20+ yard throws against Houston, eighth-lowest.
And that's a credit to the Texans' secondary, led by outside cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter, slot cornerback Jalen Pitre and safeties Calen Bullock and Jaylen Reed.
"They're pretty feisty all around," Steichen said. "I think Stingley Jr. is one of the best in the league. Lassiter, No. 4, he's a hell of a player too. And I think the one guy, Bullock, a second-year player, he's running around and making a ton of plays at the safety position. So, they've got a lot of talent on the front and the backend too. They're flying around, making a lot of plays."
Another question here. The Colts, in Weeks 9-12, are 25th in yards per play, 28th in EPA per play and 27th in success rate against the blitz (5+ pass rushers), per Pro Football Focus. Houston has, at times, dialed up more blitzes this season – they blitzed on a third of their defensive snaps in Week 2 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – and the Colts are prepared if the Texans deviate from their usual rush-four-and-cover plan.
"Most teams will look back at what we've done throughout the year, look at within the past few weeks and say, 'Okay, that's what's been working so far. Let's try that.' It's a copycat league," center Tanor Bortolini said. "Guys are going to try to do things that other teams have done well, that have worked for them, and I think that'll be something we see more of going forward."
The biggest question that'll be answered on Sunday, though, is if the Colts can stop Houston's surge and emerge with a three-game lead over the Texans with five games to play. Depending on the result of the Jaguars' road game against the 1-10 Titans, the Colts could head to Jacksonville next week with a two-game lead in the AFC South – or the winner of that Week 14 game at EverBank Stadium (where the Colts haven't won since 2014) would fully control their destiny in the AFC South.
So, needless to say, a lot is at stake on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium.
"It's been a while since we've had one here," running back Jonathan Taylor said. "We think that it's that time. But we ultimately know we gotta go out there and we gotta put a great product on the field on Sundays and you have to find a way to win. Good bad or ugly, you have to find a way to come out on top in each and every AFC South battle."