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The Warriors’ 104-100 loss to the short-handed Rockets dropped them to 10-10 on the season.
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“What’s the Bill Parcells saying?” Steve Kerr said after Wednesday’s loss. “You are what your record says you are. So, we’re 10-10, we’re an average team. I think we have the potential for much more.”
There are reasons for Kerr to believe in his group. It has championship DNA in Steph Curry and Draymond Green. It has continuity from last season, when the Warriors finished 23-8 before advancing to the Western Conference Semifinals. Even in Golden State’s uneven start, the Warriors have ripped off impressive wins over Western Conference powers such as the Lakers, Nuggets, and Spurs.
Another silver lining: the bottom half of the West is far less threatening than it has been in recent years. The Grizzlies, Clippers, and Mavericks were each expected to contend, but have a cumulative record of 17-30.
But the Warriors have real issues through a quarter of the season. Their offense ranks 22nd in the league, their competitive fire has already been questioned, and they continue to drop winnable games in which their opponent is either overmatched or missing some of its best players (or both).
Here’s what we’ve learned through 20 games.
Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green are all still elite
Curry is averaging 28.8 points per game. He has four 30-point games and three 40-point explosions, tying Michael Jordan for the most 40-point contests after turning 30.
He’s not the problem.
Jimmy Butler? He’s doing exactly what the Warriors acquired him to do. A cool, efficient, 19.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game.
Draymond Green has matched up with the three best centers in the league already. He helped hold Nikola Jokic to 8-for-23 shooting, put Victor Wembanyama in a straightjacket twice in a row, and owned Alperen Sengun (Green was a +9, Sengun a -14 on Wednesday). Golden State’s defense is elite with him on the court and completely falls apart when he sits.
With all three veterans on the floor, the Warriors have a +13.9 net rating.
Having such great production from their three best players, the Warriors must be cruising, right? Right…?
Nope. Still, if any of these 35-and-up stars were suddenly ineffective, the Warriors would be cooked. That they’re each still playing at a high level should give them hope for a turnaround.
A basketball player in a black Golden State jersey with number 10 dribbles the ball with one hand while pointing with the other during a game.
Jimmy Butler is a steady presence on offense and defense, which is exactly why the Warriors acquired him. |Source: Amber Pietz/The Standard
It’s the turnovers, stupid
In games the Warriors win the turnover battle, they’re 9-1. Some simple math reveals that when Golden State turns it over more than its opponent, the record drops to 1-9.
A few factors have led to the Warriors’ turnovers. Teams are picking up full-court more than ever now, building off the Pacers’ strategy that helped Indiana to the NBA Finals. Golden State’s ballhandlers, relatedly, are limited in most lineups. Spacing issues have made driving lanes congested, leaving Warriors drivers susceptible to swipes or without outlet passes. The Warriors are also committing unforced errors by throwing one-handed passes or losing the handle on simple dribbles.
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A dash of recklessness is built into the Warriors’ style. Curry and Green are daring players; their boldness can boil over into thrill-seeking. When the Warriors were winning 73 games in a season or had Kevin Durant, they could turn the ball over 25 times and still blow teams out.
That’s not the case anymore. The margin for error is slimmer.
Last year, when the Warriors finished the season 23-8, Butler instantly turned them into a low-turnover team. He settles things down with his isolation approach. Too often in the first 20 games, Golden State has strayed too far away from that.
“That’s the number one key now, every game,” Kerr said. “Doesn’t matter who we’re playing, the number one key is to take care of the ball. All of the evidence is there that we need: if we take care of it, we generally win.”
The Warriors have given the ball away far too often during the first quarter of their season. |Source: Amber Pietz/The Standard
Quinten Post is a rotation mainstay
Steve Kerr has said that an adequate sample size to start making conclusions when it comes to lineup combinations is 20 games.
Well, here we are. And hello, Quinten Post.
Post and Green are tied for the team lead in plus-minus, at +97. The Warriors’ top two lineups on the season have Green playing small-ball center. The next three include Post next to Green.
Curry, Podziemski, Butler, Kuminga, Green: +170 points (65 minutes)
Curry, Richard, Moody, Butler, Green: +143 (55 minutes)
Curry, Butler, Kuminga, Green, Post : +115 (44 minutes)
Podziemski, Butler, Moody, Green, Post: +106 (52 minutes)
Podziemski, Hield, Butler, Green, Post: +55 (24 minutes)
Post’s presence in the Warriors’ working lineups represents the value of a stretch center. The same reason why Golden State pursued Al Horford in the offseason is why the Warriors have been better with Post on the floor than when he rests.
And Post hasn’t even hit shots yet. He’s at 32% from 3-point range on the year, down from 40.8% last season.
But defenses still guard Post like he’s a threat from the outside, opening up the floor for the rest of his teammates. Post doesn’t hesitate to launch, even taking some no-dip 3s, which forces defenders to close out hard on him.
Relatedly, the Horford fit isn’t as seamless as everyone thought it would be. That, plus Horford’s current sciatica injury, has opened up opportunities for Post.
Additionally on the rotation front, second-round pick Will Richard has been a real positive. He has started seven of the Warriors’ last eight games, usurping Podziemski in the small-ball starting lineup because of his hard-nosed defense, timely cutting, and connective ball movement.
A Golden State Warriors player holds a basketball, guarded closely by an opponent, while teammate Stephen Curry, wearing number 30, is nearby.
Second-year center Quinten Post has earned important minutes in some of the Warriors’ best lineups. |Source: Amber Pietz/The Standard
The league is getting bigger. The Warriors aren’t.
Getting out-rebounded by 20 in a loss to the Portland Blazers was a wake-up call. That, incidentally, was the one game the Warriors lost while turning it over less than their opponent.
Two games later, the Rockets hauled in 25 offensive rebounds to dominate the possession battle. They did it without two of their 7-footers in Steven Adams — the best offensive rebounder in the league — and Kevin Durant.
The Warriors have never been the biggest team. For years, they were able to downsize to Green at center and beat opponents with speed, shooting, smarts, and finesse.
As more teams like Houston buck the trend of pace and space, and lineups with Green at center become slightly less threatening, that’s going to be harder and harder.
Being small isn’t exclusively about the center position. The best teams have size up and down the positional spectrum.
Kerr consistently plays lineups with four guard-sized players. A combination of Curry, Richard, Brandin Podziesmki, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody, and Buddy Hield (and, soon, De’Anthony Melton) often play alongside each other.
That’s not because Kerr has an agenda for small lineups. It’s because the Warriors don’t have options at 6-foot-7 and above. Jonathan Kuminga has missed seven games, and has had a habit of drifting in and out of Kerr’s rotation. Gui Santos is an energy player. And the rest of the Warriors’ size are centers. Where are the wings?
The only way for the Warriors to get bigger is via trade. The first 20 games have made clear that Golden State needs to make one.