The Milwaukee Bucks aren’t eliminated from the NBA Cup’s knockout stage yet, but even if they can take out the New York Knicks at MSG, they need lots of help to get there. New York will win Group C with a victory while Milwaukee’s only hope is the wild card. That will take both a win _and_ one of the following four scenarios:
* Cleveland loses to Atlanta and Detroit loses to Orlando
* Cleveland loses to Atlanta and Milwaukee (+13) surpasses Orlando’s point differential (+61)
* Detroit loses to Orlando and Milwaukee surpasses Cleveland’s point differential (+33)
* Milwaukee surpasses Cleveland and Orlando’s point differentials regardless of their results
Seems like a long shot to beat the Knicks by 20 or more even if the Cavs eke one out, let alone getting past the Magic in that column. So I guess go Hawks and Magic?
Things have changed a lot with the Bucks since their impressive early-season defeat of these same Knicks. Losers of six straight and fresh off their first-ever defeat in NBA Cup group play, Milwaukee is hopefully trending up after reaching their nadir. Giannis was a late scratch after going through warmups in Miami, so cross your fingers he’ll return this evening. Without him, his teammates actually had one of their best defensive performances of the season, holding the NBA’s second-highest scoring offense (on a per game basis, at least) to just 106 points. Ryan Rollins combined with Myles Turner combined for 50 while Gary Trent Jr. and AJ Green each shot well from distance, but it wasn’t enough to complete a valiant late comeback attempt: outside of that quartet, the other five guys who appeared had just 26 points and were a combined -47. After beginning the season strong, Milwaukee’s offense has cratered without Giannis to 21st, per Cleaning The Glass.
How much different are the Knicks than that squad that the Bucks pretty convincingly dispatched in late October? While they aren’t exactly healthier, it’s worth noting that Karl-Anthony Towns was dealing with an early-season quad injury and struggled mightily—a welcome occurrence after how he dominated the Bucks a couple times last year—back then. He may not shoot 2/12 again tonight, but still, the self-proclaimed best shooting big man ever is shooting only 32.6% from deep this year. Jalen Brunson is having another All-NBA caliber campaign, of course, and new sideline boss Mike Brown’s movement offense is among the league’s top three, although they remain more of an average unit on the other end. They’re coming off two easier opponents in Brooklyn and Charlotte, the latter of whom actually has a _longer_ losing streak than Milwaukee by a game. Starting Josh Hart makes the Knicks’ lineup similarly sized to the Bucks, and their two bench bigs—Mitchell Robinson and Guerschon Yabusele—have had poor offensive seasons so far. Maybe not a terrible matchup for the too-small Bucks starters?
No changes from the other day on the Bucks’ injury report: Giannis remains questionable as he comes back from his strained left groin, while Taurean Prince and Kevin Porter Jr. are out. KPJ did practice with the Herd on Wednesday, so he seems close.
New York will be without OG Anunoby’s services—he’s missed their last five contests with a strained hammy. If Giannis plays, at least he’ll catch a break not having to deal with one of the league’s best wing defenders. Bench sharpshooter Landry Shamet will also sit after spraining his shoulder on Saturday, but the Knicks are fully healthy otherwise.
While he’s not alone among Bucks perimeter players, Ryan Rollins hasn’t been as impactful defensively recently, probably due in part to his increased load on offense. If Giannis doesn’t go, that onus will be on him again, but can he do a credible job on Brunson—something neither he nor any Buck has done in two years—simultaneously? As we well know, Brunson feasts on the Bucks every time he sees them. Offensively, Rylo had an impressive second half in Miami after a slow start on Wednesday and a bad game on Monday; he didn’t struggle with the New York backcourt last time either. The Bucks will need a big two-way night from him to have any chance.
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