As the table-toppers and pace-setters travel to Stamford Bridge for one of their biggest challenges of the season, we take a look at how Chelsea vs Arsenal could be won and lost.
Depending on what happens between Manchester City and Leeds on Saturday afternoon, the final match of the weekend could be a rare clash between first and second place in the Premier League table.
In the history of the competition, the top two at the start of the day have only met 54 times. There have been 20 wins for the first-placed side, 20 wins for the second-placed team, and 14 draws. That puts this meeting between Chelsea and Arsenal entirely in the balance, right?
Probably not, given just how solid Arsenal have been all season, but Enzo Maresca’s improving Chelsea suddenly look like they could be the closest challengers for the title. Who knows, if they get a result here and cut the gap to three points, we might even have a title race on our hands.
So, where will this battle be won and lost? Here, we highlight four aspects of the game that could prove key.
Arsenal Have the Edge in Set-Piece Battle
Newsflash: Arsenal are very dangerous from set-pieces. They lead all Premier League teams for goals scored via this method (10 – excluding penalties) this season. Even without the hulking presence of Gabriel Magalhães, they scored from a corner in the Champions League on Wednesday through Jurriën Timber.
But you knew that already.
What’s perhaps flown a little more under the radar is Chelsea’s effectiveness in these situations. They’ve scored eight set-piece goals this season – the second-most in the Premier League – and generated 0.45 expected goals per game from them, the fourth-highest rate in the division. Arsenal will need to be wary of being beaten at their own game.
But defensive set-piece data suggests this is still an area that could prove pivotal. Arsenal remain exceptional at defending dead balls, allowing just 24 shots from set-pieces in their first 12 league games – easily the lowest total in the league.
Chelsea, meanwhile, have struggled. They’ve only conceded one more goal from set-pieces (4) than Arsenal (3), but the data suggests they should have conceded at least two more. They’ve given up 6.2 expected goals from set-pieces this season, the second-worst record in the league behind only Burnley (6.8). That 6.2 figure accounts for 43.5% of all the xG they’ve conceded this season – the highest proportion of any side. It’s a clear vulnerability Arsenal will look to exploit.
Chelsea xG against from set-pieces - Premier League ahead of MD13
And the set-piece goals Chelsea have conceded have been backbreakers: a long throw against Sunderland (lost 2-1), a 92nd-minute corner vs Brighton that put them 2-1 down (eventually lost 3-1), another corner against Manchester United (lost 2-1), and Brentford’s last-minute equaliser from a long throw (2-2). Each time, conceding via that method has caused them to drop points.
Caicedo vs Rice
In the post-Messi-and-Ronaldo era, there seems to be a desire from some for every big game to be centred on an individual rivalry.
So, with these two title-chasing teams fuelled by £100 million-plus central midfielders who are both being talked about as potentially the best in the world, they are the perfect subjects to shape the discussion of this top-of-the-table clash.
Much of the conversation around Moisés Caicedo and Declan Rice appears to be whether either can claim to be the best central midfielder in the world. While we’re not even going to begin trying to answer that question, we can do our best to explain just how influential they will both be on Sunday. However, it’s important to note that while possibly equally important for their teams, they do very different jobs.
Caicedo is one of the best ball-winning midfielders in the Premier League, topping the charts this season for interceptions, with his tally of 26 at least six more than anyone else, even though he plays for a possession-dominant side.
Only Liverpool have had more possession than Chelsea in the Premier League this season (59.3%) – of the top 23 players for interceptions, only two others play for teams who have had more than 53% possession. He does get forward increasingly often, having this season already scored three times as many Premier League goals (three) as he has ever done before, but his main contributions are made in front of the defence.
Moises Caieco heatmap for Chelsea
Rice, meanwhile, has developed into an elite all-rounder. He does everything – there’s plenty of regaining possession, but he also impacts games regularly at the sharp end of the pitch. In all competitions this season, only Leandro Trossard (10) and Eberechi Eze (8) have more goal contributions for Arsenal than Rice (7). Their heatmaps for league games this season show the different parts of the pitch they frequent.
Declan Rice heatmap for Arsenal
Where they are similar is in how influential they are for their respective teams. Both play every minute they can and are probably the two outfielders most likely to be on the field for the full 90 minutes on Sunday. Getting the better of either of them could be key to either team winning.
Arsenal’s “Finishers”
During their three successive second-place finishes, there was a sense that while Arsenal had a first XI capable of winning the Premier League, the drop-off beyond it hurt them. When a player from their first team was injured, the replacement level from a squad player simply wasn’t high enough, and performances suffered.
That problem has evaporated.
Arsenal went big in the summer window, acquiring seven new players on permanent deals, as well as Piero Hincapié on loan. These were not merely depth options either, with Viktor Gyökeres, Eberechi Eze and Martín Zubimendi all thrust straight into the first-choice XI.
A Positive Week for Arsenal
That added firepower has given Arsenal the resilience they previously lacked. With injuries biting hard already this season, the likes of Cristhian Mosquera and Hincapié have stepped in seamlessly for William Saliba and Gabriel. Noni Madueke has also featured heavily across the front line.
It has also allowed Arteta to use his substitutes as genuine game-changers, or “finishers” as he likes to call them. Arsenal’s second and third goals against Bayern Munich in midweek came via subs (Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli), with one created by another in Riccardo Calafiori. They now have eight goal involvements from substitutes in the Champions League, more than any other club.
Arsenal goal involvements from subs under Mikel Arteta
Across all competitions, that number rises to 15. Having played 19 games, Arsenal are averaging 0.79 goal involvements from the bench per match, which is easily the highest rate of Arteta’s tenure and a huge 83.2% increase on last season.
So, even though they sustained another injury in their most recent game, with Leandro Trossard withdrawn due to a calf problem, Arsenal will feel confident that anyone stepping in can deliver. And Arteta will have plenty of options from the bench to turn the game if needed.
Can Cucurella ‘Pocket’ Saka?
Key to any opponent stopping Arsenal is shackling Bukayo Saka. Keep Saka quiet and you’ve done… maybe not half the job, but easily more than 1/11th of it.
The England star is one of the most dangerous wingers in the game, but if anyone has the man for the job of stopping him, it could be Chelsea.
Left-back Marc Cucurella hasn’t always been the most reliable defender; only last season, he was responsible for two errors leading to an opposition goal in Premier League games, which is the joint most by any Chelsea outfielder in any season in the last decade.
In 24 appearances in all competitions in 2025-26 (including the Club World Cup), though, he looks far more assured, and, in a settled team that is looking increasingly cohesive in both attack and defence, he is yet to make any such costly errors.
Marc Cucurella defensive actions vs Barcelona
Stopping Saka is about far more than not making mistakes, though. You have to be near perfect to stand any chance, but that happens to be something Cucurella managed very recently indeed. In the Champions League on Wednesday, he kept Barcelona winger and Spain teammate Lamine Yamal completely silent as Chelsea recorded an exceptional 3-0 win.
Cucurella is rarely overawed by the big occasion and takes no prisoners. Before the game, he told reporters that he was preparing for the challenge of facing one of the best right-wingers in world football by going in hard on teammate Estêvão. “I told Estêvão to wear shin guards in training,” he said with a smile.
Improving Chelsea
The Chelsea man may have reason to be confident, too, having largely succeeded in keeping Saka quiet in their last two meetings.
In last season’s 1-1 draw between the sides at Stamford Bridge, Saka didn’t play anything like as prominent a role as he usually does, having two shots, both of which missed the target, and failing to create a single chance.
Their previous meeting was the Euro 2024 final, in which Saka was quiet, failing to have a single shot or beat an opponent with a dribble, though he did create two chances. Cucurella, meanwhile, set up Mikel Oyarzabal’s championship-winning goal to break English hearts.
The truth is Arsenal are so good that even if you stop Saka, there are still countless other things to worry about. But even so, Maresca will surely be more confident about his team’s chances with Cucurella facing up against Arsenal’s best player.
Premier League Stats Opta
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