The top two in the Premier League going into the weekend meet on Sunday as Chelsea host Arsenal at Stamford Bridge. We look ahead to the clash with our prediction and preview.
Chelsea vs Arsenal: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer just about fancies Premier League leaders Arsenal to get over the line at Stamford Bridge, with a 42.4% win probability.
Just 43.5% of Chelsea’s Premier League points this season have come in home games (10/23).
Having lost six of their seven Premier League away games against Chelsea between 2013 and 2018 (D1), Arsenal are now unbeaten in their last six visits to Stamford Bridge (W3 D3).
Chelsea’s confidence will be sky-high after they thrashed Barcelona 3-0 in the UEFA Champions League.
It was their biggest margin of victory over Barcelona in the competition, while the Blues also became just the third side to beat Barça at least five times in the competition after Bayern Munich (10) and Paris Saint-Germain (6).
Chelsea 3-0 Barca
But an even bigger test lies ahead for Enzo Maresca’s side as they prepare to host Premier League – and Champions League – leaders Arsenal on Sunday, in a clash that sees the top two teams in England go head-to-head.
The Gunners are thriving under Mikel Arteta this season and will also back themselves to win at Stamford Bridge after recording convincing victories over Tottenham and Bayern since returning from the international break.
And although Chelsea strengthened their self-proclaimed ‘Pride of London’ title by winning the Club World Cup in the summer, Arsenal are currently top dogs in the capital.
Since the start of the 2022-23 campaign, Arsenal have lost just three of their 40 London derby matches in the Premier League (W28 D9), with just one of those defeats coming away from home (1-2 vs Fulham in December 2023).
Arteta’s side have already beaten West Ham, Fulham, Crystal Palace and Tottenham in the league this season, while they face Brentford following their trip to Chelsea.
On Wednesday, Arsenal claimed their first win over Bayern Munich since 2015, ending a winless run of five matches against the German giants, and they were also boosted by the return of captain Martin Ødegaard.
More on Chelsea vs Arsenal
The Norway international missed eight fixtures in all competitions after suffering a knee injury against West Ham in early October, but he will be desperate to extend his excellent record against Chelsea.
Ødegaard is unbeaten in eight meetings with the Blues (W6 D2), and with two goals and five assists, he has been directly involved in more Premier League goals against Chelsea than any other opponent (seven).
Arteta also boasts a strong record against the Blues.
The Spaniard has the third-highest Premier League win rate against Chelsea (58.3% – 7/12) of any manager to take charge of 10+ games against them, behind Pep Guardiola (61.1%) and Kenny Dalglish (76.9%).
Arsenal have scored 24 goals and conceded 13 in 12 clashes with Chelsea since Arteta took charge of the team, though his first defeat at the helm came against the Blues in December 2019.
Chelsea, meanwhile, could be relying on Pedro Neto to help secure what could be a seismic win.
Neto has been involved in five goals in his last five Premier League games (three goals, two assists), and is looking to score in three in a row for the first time, while he also played a role in their opener against Barcelona.
The Portuguese winger has been involved in three goals in his last four starts against Arsenal (two goals, one assist), netting the Blues’ equaliser in the corresponding fixture last season, which finished 1-1.
However, a Chelsea win on Sunday would see them move to within three points of the Gunners, and perhaps really show they should be considered title contenders this term.
Chelsea have opened the scoring in each of their last seven league games. It is their longest run of scoring first since April 2024 (also seven), a sequence that was ended by a 5-0 loss to Arsenal.
However, it must be said that Chelsea’s home record has been far from impressive in the league in 2025-26.
Just 43.5% of Chelsea’s Premier League points this season have come in home games (10/23), with only Tottenham (28%) earning a lower share of their points at home.
Chelsea welcome back Cole Palmer, who is ready to start the game, according to Maresca, while Leandro Trossard is in with a chance of making it for Arsenal. He was taken off during the first half of the win over Bayern, with Arteta revealing they did not want to take a risk with the winger.
Only against Liverpool (six) has Trossard scored more Premier League goals than he has against Chelsea (four).
His next goal will be his 50th in the English top flight, making him the fifth Belgian to reach this milestone after Romelu Lukaku (121), Christian Benteke (86), Eden Hazard (85) and Kevin De Bruyne (72).
But if Trossard is not deemed fit enough to start, it is not as if Arteta does not have options.
Noni Madueke came off the bench to net his first goal for Arsenal on Wednesday, and he will be eager to show what he can do against his old club, while Gabriel Martinelli also found scored as a substitute against Bayern.
Eberechi Eze has registered four goal involvements in his last two games, and after his magical display in the north London derby, is almost certain to feature from the off if he is fit. The former Crystal Palace star could move out to the left, enabling Ødegaard to start in midfield.
Eze goal involvements
Chelsea vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Chelsea have won just one of their last 11 Premier League games against Arsenal (D3 L7) and are winless in seven (D2 L5) since a 2-0 win at the Emirates in August 2021.
And having lost six of their seven away games in the league against Chelsea between 2013 and 2018 (D1), Arsenal are now unbeaten in their last six visits to Stamford Bridge (W3 D3).
Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal stats November 2024
This will be just the fifth time Arsenal have faced Chelsea while top of the table in the Premier League, with the Gunners winning each of the previous four – 3-2 in January 2003, 2-1 in February 2004, 1-0 in December 2007 and 5-0 in April 2024.
Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction
Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction Opta
After running 10,000 simulations of this match, the Opta supercomputer expects the Gunners to continue their fine run against the Blues.
Arsenal have been given a 41.9% chance of victory, while Chelsea have a 32.6% probability of halving their rivals’ lead at the top of the Premier League.
A draw has been given a likelihood of 25.5%, but after their respective wins over Barcelona and Bayern, neither side will want to settle for a point.
Chelsea vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Malo Gusto, Wesley Fofana, Trevoh Chalobah, Marc Cucurella, Reece James, Moisés Caicedo, Enzo Fernández, Pedro Neto, Alejandro Garnacho, João Pedro.
Head coach: Enzo Maresca
Arsenal: David Raya, Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Piero Hincapié, Riccardo Calafiori, Martin Ødegaard, Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Mikel Merino, Eberechi Eze.
Manager: Mikel Arteta
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Premier League Stats Opta
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