The Portland Trail Blazers have had an up-and-down start to their 2025-26 season. A team that looked to be vying for contention in the 2026 Playoffs and the NBA Cup has suddenly fallen on hard times, losing 8 of their last 11 games. What’s going on here? Was their early-season success a mirage? Will we be looking at maddening, Jekyll-and-Hyde performances all season long?
Consider this question from the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag.
Dear Dave,
I don’t understand how the same team can look so good and so lifeless depending on the game. I understand getting blown out by OKC. We had it coming. But the same team that beat OKC and Denver also lost to the Spurs and Lakers without their stars. I was thrilled and now I’m disappointed I guess? Is this team just random or what?
As you identified, it depends on the night.
When this all started, back in the early season when the Blazers were (basically) winning, we told you how they’re doing it. Portland isn’t/wasn’t winning because of superior talent, shooting percentages, or any kind of magical transformation. They work their asses off every night to force enough turnovers (now with offensive rebounds!) to generate more shots than their opponents. The sheer volume of shots makes up for any deficiencies on Portland’s part. The “more shot” math gives them a chance to win, regardless of quality of opponent or other considerations.
It also works the other way, though. If the Blazers fail to force turnovers, offensive rebounds, or an advantage in shot attempts, they’re going to have a hard time winning regardless of opponent quality or make-up.
Basically, the Blazers want to break down the game into its bedrock elements…not just the elements of basketball, but humanity. “I’m a person. You’re a person. I run and you run. Either one of us can grab this ball off the miss because we both have arms. Either one of us can run for an easy layup that even a fifth-grader could hit because we both have legs and a basic competency of the game.” In this way, Portland hopes to turn players like Victor Wembanyama or Shai-Gilgeous Alexander (whom they very much do not have on their roster) into just human beings, making Portland’s fifth option as dangerous in his own way as the opponent’s first.
The problem is, the inverse also applies. This kind of reduction turns Wembanyama’s third-string substitute into a player as competent as anyone else.
When the Blazers are able to run faster, rebound harder, and flood the court with springy, fresh bodies, they become a threat to win any game on the schedule. When they can’t–even if only one or two things escape around the edges, foiling their approach–they don’t have a safety net to make up for it.
That’s how you see the same team win impossible games and lose face-palming ones within weeks of each other.
Other factors are complicating the layout right now too. Injuries are a huge one. We want to point out the amount of talent Portland is missing when Scoot Henderson, Matisse Thybulle, Shaedon Sharpe, et al. are in street clothes. That’s valid, but you don’t even have to go that far. Think of the number of bodies they’re missing. The coaching staff is forced into an impossible choice: play the best players bigger minutes at the cost of their energy and ability to execute the game plan or keep the all-hands-on-deck blitz going by playing guys who–if the attack doesn’t work–have no ability to hang with even average NBA opponents, let alone superstars.
Fatigue may also be coming into play. Obviously it’s hard to give all-out energy for 48 minutes as the season winds on and bodies accumulate pain, fatigue, and wear.
There’s also the open question of whether any of this will work. If a team can win or lose any game, they’re inevitably going to do some of each. You may get short runs of variance–the same as flipping a coin and having it come up “heads” six times in a row–but over the long haul, it’s going to even out.
The best you can say of Portland right now is that they’re never really out of a game, neither when the pregame lineups are read and their talent doesn’t match up nor when the opponent goes on a run and they get down by double-digits nor in the last two minutes. That’s exciting. It’s also way better than the past couple seasons when it was evident they were out of most games the minute the schedule was released each summer. But “never being out of it” is what you say about teams who lose in the playoffs…if they even make it in the first place. Being “in” games is a basic expectation of professional sports. Winning, dominating, excelling. Great teams do those things too. The Blazers are a ways from that right now.
You’ve no doubt heard anecdotal tales of people trying to date and saying, “The bar is so low that if they’re breathing and don’t treat me horribly, I’m considering it.” First, it’s amazing how many people don’t clear that bar. Second, that approach works for a week, but if you’re planning to spend a lifetime with someone, expectations probably need to be higher.
It’s the same way with Blazers fans and their team right now. This is a fun, casual relationship in which the squad has spent a few weeks taking us out on exciting dates. They’ve also shown some major gaffes. For now, this is ok! Dating them isn’t bad. But if they’re trying to put a ring on it–or want us to–we need to see more: more consistency, a more sustainable approach, more development, and ultimately more wins.
Thanks for the question! You can always send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll try to answer as many as possible!