It’s the final slate of the NBA Cup group stage tonight, and the stakes couldn’t be any higher.
For those with aspirations of reaching the knockout stage and eventually Las Vegas, it’s not just win or go home tonight.
It’s win by enough or go home.
Detroit and Orlando duke it out to determine the winner of East Group B while four teams are still live to advance via wildcard.
In the West, two group winners will be decided tonight.
Their wildcard is all but determined, but if two crazy results happen in tandem, that knockout berth could flip.
Prior to the NBA Cup, it’d be a rarity to witness playoff-like intensity this early in the season.
But tonight, NBA fans should be in for a treat.
There are six games of consequence tonight, let me break down what’s on the line.
**Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks**
You might’ve seen that meme from It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia with Charlie Day mapping out his conspiracy theories.
That’s how it feels today with the NBA Cup.
As it stands, the Miami Heat are the only team with three wins in East Group C.
However, Milwaukee and New York are both 2-1 and play each other tonight.
All three teams are still in contention to advance.
Here are the many scenarios that could play out:
* If New York wins tonight, they win East Group B due to their head-to-head victory over Miami two weeks ago.
* If Milwaukee wins, Miami wins East Group B as they beat the Bucks on Wednesday.
* Milwaukee’s only way to advance is to win tonight and have a higher point differential than all the other 3-1 teams.
* Miami could still advance with a New York win as long as their +49 point differential doesn’t get surpassed by any other 3-1 team.
New York stands to gain the most with a win. Milwaukee can’t just win; they need to get a 20- or 30-point blowout.
With Giannis Antetokounmpo still questionable, the Bucks odds of advancing are close to dead (+1200).
**Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons**
This one is the most competitive of the slate.
Even though the Magic are undefeated in the group stage, a loss to Detroit would put both of them at 3-1 with the Pistons earning the tiebreaker via head-to-head record.
Currently sitting as one possession favourites, the 15-3 Pistons are close to full strength and have a lot to prove.
Several pundits still question if their ascension to the top of the East is legitimate.
For Orlando, they are in a very similar team-building stage as Detroit.
They have a very young core and got knocked out in the first-round last playoffs.
The one difference? The Magic already made a big offseason splash by trading for Desmond Bane.
They’re clamouring to prove they are amongst the elites in the East.
As long as Orlando doesn’t get blown out, their current +61 point differential should be large enough to secure the wildcard.
If Detroit loses, they’re eliminated.
The Magic are -290 to advance to the quarterfinals (a 74.4 implied probability) and here’s why I think there’s value in that number.
These are the two scenarios needed for Orlando to be sent home:
1. The Magic lose by 12 or more points and New York beats Milwaukee.
2. The Magic lose by ‘x’ amount of points, New York loses, and Cleveland makes up the 28-point gap they have against Orlando or Milwaukee makes up their 48-point difference.
I’m not even going to calculate the odds of what it’d pay for Cleveland to clear the 28-point gap with a New York loss.
Since Paolo Banchero’s gone down, Orlando has gone 5-2 with their biggest loss coming by nine points against Boston.
Given the stakes, I don’t see the Magic going down quietly.
It’s a long number (-290), but I think the probability of them being eliminated is even lower.
**Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks**
Out of formality, I list this matchup.
Maybe also as a subtle way to gas up the Raptors for going 4-0.
Atlanta’s eliminated but Cleveland still has a longshot chance.
Here’s what they’d need:
1. Magic win, Cleveland wins and maintains their 7-point gap over New York who’d also need a win.
2. Magic win, Milwaukee wins, and Cleveland wins by 17 points to overcome Miami
3. Magic lose and Cleveland makes up the 28-point difference between them and Orlando
If you like the combination of any of these three scenarios, you can get them at +220 to advance on FanDuel.
**Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder**
This is a winner-take-all matchup for West Group A.
Both teams are 3-0.
Whoever loses must maintain a gap over the second-best wildcard team.
That’ll either be Memphis with a +9 point differential or the LA Clippers at -15.
Considering that Phoenix is +35, unless they get fully blown out by OKC (which they are capable of doing), the Suns should slip into the knockout stage clearing that 26-point gap.
Memphis is currently a 6-point underdog against LA.
**Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers**
The Clippers either play spoiler tonight or Memphis gets a longshot chance at leapfrogging Phoenix.
The Suns are currently 15-point dogs against OKC.
Hypothetically, let’s say their game goes exactly that way.
Memphis would need to win by 12 points to advance via wildcard.
That alternative spread on FanDuel parlayed with OKC -14.5 currently pays +1408.
You could also experiment with other versions of an alternative spread like Memphis moneyline and OKC -25.5 which pays +1078.
The Grizzlies to advance currently pays just +380.
If you feel like getting frisky, bet it the +1408 way.
**San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets**
Unlike Phoenix versus OKC, the loser of this game is simply out.
No second chance via wildcard since they’re both 2-1.
All other West Group C teams are 2-2 or worse.
Nothing to offer here – the Nuggets are 7.5-point favourites.
At home, it would be a shocking result if the Nuggets don’t get it done against a Spurs squad without Victor Wembanyama.