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Why Old Rules Don’t Apply in the Modern NBA

Basketball is an ever-changing sport, particularly at the NBA level. As the game evolves and strategies change, last decade’s brilliant schemes can become this decade’s predictable trap. For an example, let’s examine today’s submission to the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag.

I watch every Blazer game on TV with my wife. I will admit that I have no idea about strategy or how to play basketball. Still, she often notices that when Blazer players shoot a 3 point shot, they basically stay motionless with their shooting hand up in the air. They watch their shot rather than trying to move toward the basket to get a rebound if their shot misses. It seems they are just stand and appreciate their shot. I can’t explain why they do this.

Thanks Craig

I usually edit out personal details/anecdotes from questions and get right to the heart of the matter, but for some reason I feel like leaving yours in, Craig. There’s something touching about two people watching games together, talking about them and sharing thoughts. You made me feel warm and fuzzy. Congratulations to both of you. You have all my best wishes together, and I’m sure those of our community as well. Lots of us have grown up with the Blazers doing exactly what you’ve described: talking with family, friends, parents, loved ones. I hope you both enjoy for many years to come!

As far as the specific question, if what you’re describing is the whole story, then yeah…it’s sketchy. Obviously we don’t want players standing and admiring their handiwork when they could be doing other things. Old school coaches would be up in arms! But that may not be the whole story.

Let’s be charitable at first and say that players shoot best when they’re in rhythm. Everybody’s heard of being in “the zone”. That can mean different things to different people, but for our purposes “comfort zone” is probably the best definition. From the time a player contemplates taking a shot right through to the end release and swish of the ball through the net, we want them unbothered, moving naturally, in tune with the task and their environment. The more we get them thinking–in their own heads–the farther away we take them from instinctively-good results.

This is one of the reasons having a green light from coaches tends to help shooters. If a player is worried about whether a shot is appropriate or approved before he even rises to take it, we’ve messed with his focus from the get-go. He’s not just going to be looking at the rim. He’s going to be looking over his shoulder too.

Defending against our own players’ shooting is not the goal of coaching. Many coaches nowadays define general parameters of ideal distance and/or time for shots, but then say, “If it’s within our broader goals, you’re open, and you can hit it, go for it.” You can tell the difference between an unconcerned shooter and someone who is anticipating failure. Seeing the hesitation in the latter case is painful…worse than just seeing a well-intended miss.

Admitting that, we can also admit that comfort zone extends to the follow-through on shots. If a player is focused on the flight of the ball after release, well, I guess he was focused on the parts before too! That’s great! If I try to train that out of him–particularly with professional players who have their own rhythm and have practiced shots a billion times–I don’t know how far into his psyche my meddling will extend. If there’s a specific mechanic that’s wrong, that’s different. Then the player is primed for failure anyway. But if all that’s wrong is the post-follow-through stance, the benefits of correcting that probably aren’t worth the risk of turning his subconsciously-conducted shot process back into conscious effort. Maybe I get him moving a second or two earlier after the release by getting him to think ahead. But maybe I’m also making him think about that instead of just making the shot in the first place, which is ultimately what I want.

I’d rather have a guy standing naturally for a second thinking, “That’s going in!” after a three-point attempt than have him thinking, “I should remember after I release to head for the bucket in case it’s not going in because otherwise coach will be mad at me.” That thought itself is an anticipation of failure…that the shot is not going in. Just focus on making it instead and we won’t have to worry.

But even if you don’t buy that, there’s a modern, systemic explanation for the follow-through offensive rebound going the way of the Dodo. Two, actually.

One of the cardinal sins of modern defense is giving up easy, quick points. There’s no easier or quicker attempt than an unopposed layup or dunk on the break.

The shooter at the three-point arc is your first line of defense going the other way if the shot misses. You can ask him to follow his shot inside in order to vie for offensive rebounds, but even if he does, the chances of him actually getting one are small.

The best teams offensive rebound around a 33% rate. That’s a 1 in 3 chance of grabbing the board counting the whole team. The chances for an individual player, particularly a guard or wing, are less. The chances of him being stuck down in the lane trying for that rebound while his former defender streaks down the court for an easy, unopposed pass are about 100% though.

At least two out of three times, the defensive team is going to get the rebound off of the three-point miss. If the shooter isn’t still out on the perimeter when that happens, ready to run back and defend against the outlet pass and break–if he starts the play 10 feet behind the opponent because he went into the paint for the offensive rebound–then two out of three times, that missed three is going to become two instant points for the other side. That would be a disaster. Our shooter pulling out needles and knitting baby beanies on the perimeter after attempting the shot would be better! As long as he’s ready to turn around and defend after the other team gets the ball, he’s doing his job. So standing and watching the shot (and what happens after) is just fine.

And speaking of what happens after, the offensive rebounding game has changed in the modern era.

Once upon a time, a player getting the offensive board would put on a little footwork and muscle up for the put-back shot inside. That’ll still happen if the rebounder is open, but most of the time they’re not. Teams have figured out that one of the ways to capitalize on an offensive rebound is to pass the ball right back to the perimeter. Shooters are often open there because everybody else went into the paint for the rebound. Sometimes the open player is the same guy who shot the ball in the first place!

That doesn’t happen if the shooter went down in the lane with everyone else after attempting his shot. For this reason, many coaches actually want their players to remain at the arc after they release, ready to receive another attempt if their team gets the ball back. If you have to stay where you are anyway, watching the results of your shot isn’t just grandstanding, it’s normal and necessary. Otherwise how do you know what your next action is?

This also explains why players don’t just turn around and run back on defense after their shot release. What if you’re running full-speed to get back in transition but your team got the ball back? You’re out of the play and your big man has nobody to pass to.

The premise of your question isn’t entirely wrong, Craig. Players certainly shouldn’t be showing off or staring at the results of their shot when they have better things to do. I’m just suggesting that maybe, in this era, the “better thing to do” actually involves staying where they are, hanging in, and being ready to run back on defense or get up another shot immediately. If that’s true, then watching the results of the shot attempt isn’t a sign of laziness or ego. It’s just what they do when you’re waiting for the next step to develop.

Your old coach wouldn’t like any of this, but he wouldn’t like those three-point attempts in the first place. He sure wouldn’t like the opponent running back so fast, dunking on you when they miss and you’re stuck in the lane trying to rebound them. He’s not wrong, but his teams would also lose 120-106 in the modern NBA because of the way the sport has changed.

As you contemplate all this, don’t just watch players watching their shots. Watch what they do right after that. If they’re celebrating, cursing, or just standing still after the ball is rebounded, you have a legitimate critique. But if you see them go on to the next action as soon as the result becomes apparent, we should probably chalk this up to, “That’s how the game works now.”

Thanks for the question! You can always send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll try to answer as many as possible!

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