With injuries starting to pile up for star players, an interesting trend has begun: teams have played just as well, if not better, without their franchise cornerstones.
Now, before we go full Bill Simmons and scream EWING THEORY, let’s take a step back and see what the small samples are telling us.
Atlanta, you first.
Is Ice Trae starting to melt?
After starting the season 2-3 with Trae in the lineup, the Hawks have gone 11-6 in his absence. The on/off numbers comparing Atlanta this season without Trae and Atlanta last year with him (the sample size for this year is too small) is exactly what you’d expect: when he sits, the team is worse on offense (117.4 with Trae, 116.2 without) but better on defense (116.8 with Trae, 112.6 without). Overall, the Hawks have a better net rating without him (+3.6 vs +0.6), but this doesn’t factor in the offseason upgrades that’s benefiting the current iteration of Atlanta.
The team’s style of play is different too. Atlanta has gone from running the 11th most pick-and-rolls per game last year to the 26th most this season, indicating that they’re playing a more egalitarian style sans Trae. Curiously, both their passes and assists per game have slightly increased in his absence, as the Hawks are currently averaging 297.8 passes and 30.8 assists vs 281.8 passes and 29.6 assists last season. It’s a small sample size, but the numbers suggest that Atlanta is prioritizing a multi-lane approach now that Express Lane Trae is out of commission. No one dribbles the air out of the ball or dominates the possession for 20s, and it’s led to more ball movement and better shots.
Much has been made about Jalen Johnson’s leap, and rightfully so: he’s averaging 23/10/7 on 54/40/78 shooting and looks like an All-NBA candidate. However, I’d argue that Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s emergence has been even more instrumental to Atlanta’s success.
Even though NAW’s averaging fewer than four assists, he’s responsible for bringing the ball up and setting up the offense. His playmaking isn’t groundbreaking, but it doesn’t need to be: the Hawks have some of the best off-ball movement in the league, and NAW’s job is to simply get it to the open man when the opportunity arises.
NAW’s also averaging 20 points (his previous career high was 11) while playing good defense, and the lack of an obvious defensive scab to pick at due to Trae’s absence has given Atlanta a much better two-way group.
Still, I’m not willing to bury Trae before seeing how he reintegrates into Atlanta’s scheme. Even with NAW and Johnson’s breakouts, Atlanta lacks a singular dynamo who can individually break down opposing defenses when the going gets tough. That’s what Trae is for, and this team can be maximized if he’s willing to play more off-ball while reverting to his usual heliocentric style when the offense bogs down — especially in the playoffs.
Trae’s fit is especially pertinent given the Hawks could explore trades involving him next summer due to the lack of an extension. Atlanta could also be a dark horse Giannis team given that they have both Milwaukee’s and New Orleans’ 2026 unprotected firsts along with a plethora of intriguing young players — although one of Trae/Johnson will need to be in such a deal too. It’s a hypothetical that’s unlikely to bear fruit, but it still shows why Trae and the Hawks are perhaps the most intriguing player/team combo to monitor this year.
Does Orlando have more Magic without Paolo?
Orlando’s conundrum with Paolo is less dire given that he’s much younger than Trae and fits into his team’s system.
Even so, the Magic have gone 6-2 without Paolo after starting 6-6 with him, although the net rating is similar: +3.2 with, +4.0 without. The biggest difference in their play has been an elevated role for Desmond Bane, whose usage has increased from 22.5% (50th percentile) to 26.1% (69th percentile) in the eight games without Paolo. Given Bane’s abilities as both a playmaker and shooter, it’s not surprising to see Orlando’s offensive rating go from 116.2 (51st percentile) to 118.8 (69th) in the non-Paolo minutes, as the Magic are finally realizing that involving Bane is a necessity rather than a luxury.
That doesn’t mean Paolo is a negative for their offense — quite the opposite, in fact. He is still Orlando’s most devastating player, but the way he’s been used has been the issue. The Magic looked the most dangerous when Paolo and Bane ran two-man action that utilized the latter’s spacing, and the first play of the season has ironically been the most creative set involving them thus far. Bane’s gravity sucks in both defenders momentarily following a Paolo pick, and the latter’s downhill presence forces Miami’s big to step up and concede an open lob.
Bane doesn’t even have to touch the ball to be dangerous, either. Even a simple Iverson cut scrambles opposing defenses due to their fear of his shot, and this opens up looks for other players as well.
The ugly side of Orlando’s offense is revealed when the ball and players stop moving. This happens most often with Paolo in the lineup since the coaching staff and other players are too deferential, letting him take inefficient long twos like the one below.
On the season, Paolo is making just 43% of his mid-rangers and 25% of his threes, resulting in an abysmal 49.2% efficient field goal percentage that ranks in the 13th percentile among all forwards. What’s more concerning is that 40% of his shots have come from the mid-range (95th percentile), a number that should only be touched by mid-range gods like DeMar DeRozan or Chris Paul.
Moreover, the Magic seldom involve more than two players on any offensive set. The previous clips with Bane are rare examples of actions that have three or more players moving, as the majority of their possessions are either isolations or two-man actions. This has been the case even without Paolo in the lineup, with most possessions involving Bane running two-man action while the other players stand stationary in the corners and paint. Orlando’s attack is simply not creative enough given the talent on the roster, and the result is an offense that plays at a level below the sum of their parts.
Considering everything, the issue in Orlando lies more with their scheme rather than the personnel. Playing through Bane has opened up their offense due to his shooting threat, but the Magic could be even more dangerous with Paolo in the lineup as long as they run actions involving both players. The coaching staff needs to understand that playing them synergistically is how they can reach their full potential: Paolo is still the most important piece, but Bane is the key that unlocks everything. Hopefully that happens when Paolo returns, but if it doesn’t, some uncomfortable conversations will need to be had about Jamahl Mosley’s scheme and Paolo’s mentality.
This week, please check out Jeje’s article on how the Spurs slowed down Nikola Jokic! He does a great job of breaking down the strategies San Antonio employed to limit the world’s best player.
Thanks for reading!
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.