Oklahoma City Thunder center Chet Holmgren
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Chet Holmgren has emerged as the early Defensive Player of the Year favorite, driving one of the NBA’s top defenses through 20 games.
NBA champion center Chet Holmgren is wasting no time rewriting the early-season awards race. The Oklahoma City Thunder center has positioned himself as the clear frontrunner for the 2025–26 Defensive Player of the Year award after the league’s first quarter, a dramatic reversal from last season when a hip fracture limited him to 32 games and knocked him out of award eligibility.
Holmgren’s Odds Lead the Field
Holmgren enters December as the betting favorite. According to Fox Sports, he currently holds +130 odds, ahead of San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama (+350) and Cleveland Cavaliers forward Evan Mobley (+600). Market projections tell a similar story. Prophetx gives Holmgren a 40 percent chance to win the award, doubling Wembanyama’s 20 percent and comfortably leading Mobley (12 percent), Houston Rockets guard Amen Thompson (9 percent), and Atlanta Hawks guard Dyson Daniels (5 percent).
The rise is a reflection of strong defensive performance and a perfect storm around the rest of the field. Cleveland hasn’t matched last year’s blistering start that fueled Mobley’s DPOY push, while Wembanyama remains sidelined with a calf injury and has no timetable for return. According to Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News, it is unlikely Wembanyama will participate in the NBA Cup, putting him behind the league’s 65-game award eligibility rule for the second straight season.
Defense That Changes Oklahoma City’s Identity
The numbers support Holmgren’s case. Through 20 games, he is averaging 18.2 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.5 blocks, and nearly one steal per game, while shooting 55.5 percent from the field and 35.3 percent from three. But the defensive metrics carry the real weight.
According to 3stepsbasket, Oklahoma City owns a 102.8 defensive rating with Holmgren on the floor, placing him in the top one percent among all players in limiting opponent scoring. It is a notable improvement from last year’s 103.9 defensive rating in his minutes. Oklahoma City is also +10.5 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court, demonstrating that his defensive presence is not only elite in isolation but also elevates the entire unit.
These numbers matter for voters. Defensive Player of the Year has increasingly rewarded players whose impact extends beyond raw block and steal totals. Holmgren’s positioning, shot deterrence, weak-side timing, and ability to guard in space give the Thunder rare versatility at the five. His presence allows Oklahoma City to maintain their aggressive perimeter schemes without sacrificing rim protection.
Thriving Even Without Full Personnel
Holmgren’s case becomes stronger when considering context. Oklahoma City has dealt with lineup instability, including missed games from Jalen Williams, an All-Defensive candidate last season, and defensive cornerstone Lu Dort. Yet the Thunder remain one of the league’s most disciplined units. Their rotations stay sharp, their paint coverage remains tight, and their defensive identity never wavers.
Why Holmgren Leads the DPOY Race Now
With Mobley’s Cavs looking inconsistent and Wembanyama fighting both injury and the 65-game threshold again, Holmgren has the clearest runway. More importantly, his individual performance has matched the moment. His defensive rating, availability, and impact metrics position him as the league’s most influential defensive player through the first quarter.
If he remains healthy and Oklahoma City continues its strong play, the path for Holmgren to secure his first Defensive Player of the Year award is already taking shape.