Chelsea are the favourites with the Opta supercomputer when they visit Elland Road in the Premier League on Wednesday. Look ahead to the game with our Leeds vs Chelsea prediction and preview.
Leeds vs Chelsea: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer rates Chelsea as the clear favourites for this game with a win probability of 60.3% to Leeds United’s 19.1%.
Leeds have won just one of their last 12 midweek Premier League matches.
Enzo Maresca has lost both of his previous league meetings with Leeds as a manager.
Enzo Maresca will have to achieve a first as a manager when his Chelsea side renew rivalries with Leeds United in the Premier League on Wednesday.
The Blues earned a credible 1-1 draw with leaders Arsenal on Sunday, despite playing much of the match with 10 men after Moisés Caicedo was sent off, a result that left them third and six points adrift of the Gunners.
Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal Stats
Now, they face a trip to Elland Road and there is little love lost between these two giants of English football.
Maresca has lost each of his two previous league games against Leeds, both in the Championship when manager of Leicester City in the 2023-24 campaign. They are one of only three sides he has faced more than once and lost every game against in English football, along with Middlesbrough and Manchester City. Indeed, his only previous encounter at Elland Road ended in a 3-1 reverse in February 2024.
Last December ended in disappointing fashion for Chelsea, who lost their last two league games of the calendar year in 2024 – falling to Fulham and Ipswich Town. The Blues last had a longer league losing run in December in 1990 and 1991 (four in a row), a streak that included defeat at Leeds.
However, they are faring pretty well in evening Premier League kick-offs (7pm or later), losing only two of the past 17 such games – going down 2-0 at Ipswich and 3-0 at Brighton last season (W12 D3).
By contrast, Leeds have won just one of their last 12 midweek Premier League games (D5 L6), defeating Nottingham Forest 2-1 in April 2023.
The struggling Whites, who sit 18th in the table following a narrow 3-2 defeat at Manchester City last time out, have lost two of their last three home league matches (W1), only one fewer than in their previous 49 at Elland Road (W35 D11 L3).
Manager Daniel Farke has suffered defeat in each of his three Premier League matches against Chelsea, all as Norwich City boss between 2019 and 2021, by an aggregate score of 11-2. Indeed, his most recent encounter with the Blues ended in a 7-0 drubbing back in October 2021.
Five of Leeds’ seven Premier League goals on home soil this season have been scored in the first half of games (71%). They have a 10% shot conversion in the first 45 minutes (five goals from 50 shots), which drops to 4.7% in the second half (two goals from 43 shots).
Chelsea were boosted by the return of talisman Cole Palmer to the bench against Arsenal and he could feature against Leeds. The England ace’s only previous Premier League appearance against Leeds was as an 88th-minute substitute for Manchester City in a 3-1 win at Elland Road in December 2022.
Cole Palmer Importance to Chelsea Stats
Leeds are one of only three teams he has faced and not scored or assisted against, along with Leicester and Norwich, while just for Chelsea he has done so against 21 of the 22 teams he has played against, failing only against the Foxes last season.
Chelsea will be without the suspended Caicedo, though, while Maresca confirmed Reece James is unlikely to be risked despite his excellent showing against Arsenal as they manage the captain’s workload. Anton Stach and Sebastiaan Bornauw could return for Leeds, but Sean Longstaff remains out with a calf issue.
Leeds vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
Chelsea’s record at Elland Road does not make for great reading, with the Blues winning just six of their 48 away league games against Leeds (D13 L29).
Only at Sheffield Wednesday (12%) do they have a lower win rate on the road than against Leeds (12.5%, minimum of 20 matches).
On the flip side, Leeds have won just one of their last nine Premier League games against Chelsea (D2 L6). However, that victory did come when the teams last met at Elland Road in August 2022, a game that the Whites won 3-0.
Leeds vs Chelsea Prediction
Chelsea may not own the best record at Elland Road, but the Opta supercomputer still rates their chances of victory at a hefty 61.1%.
Leeds, by contrast, have just a 18.6% win probability, with the draw rated as a 20.3% possibility.
Leeds Utd vs Chelsea Prediction
Leeds vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Leeds: Lucas Perri, Jayden Bogle, Joe Rodon, Pascal Struijk, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Ao Tanaka, Ethan Ampadu, Ilia Gruev, Brenden Aaronson, Noah Okafor, Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
Head coach: Daniel Farke
Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Reece James, Trevoh Chalobah, Tosin Adarabioyo, Marc Cucurella, Enzo Fernández, Andrey Santos, Estêvão, Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto, João Pedro.
Head coach: Enzo Maresca
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this midweek, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Premier League Stats Opta
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