Arsenal vs Brentford match preview pieces all point in the same direction. League leaders Arsenal return to the Emirates for a third straight Premier League London derby, this time against a Brentford side that looks lively at home but fragile on the road.
Arsenal sit five points clear at the top after a 1–1 draw at Chelsea. That result stretched their unbeaten run in all competitions to 17 matches and left them with nine wins and three draws from 13 league games. At home they have been close to flawless, winning nine of ten matches in all competitions this season and the last seven in a row. No Premier League side has conceded fewer home goals than their tally of two.
Brentford arrive in tenth place after a 3–1 home victory over Burnley. Keith Andrews has guided them through a summer of major departures and into the top half, helped by a strong home record and one of the division’s most productive centre forwards in Igor Thiago. Their travel record tells a different story. Five defeats in six away league games this season, with only one win at West Ham, highlight the size of the task at the Emirates.
[Opta’s](https://theanalyst.com/articles/arsenal-vs-brentford-prediction-premier-league-12-2025) supercomputer reflects that split. Arsenal win 71 percent of simulations of this fixture, with Brentford taking three points in just 12.5 percent. The numbers back up the feeling around most Arsenal news outlets that this is a match the hosts should control, provided they manage fatigue and Brentford’s counter threat.
### Head to head: Arsenal in control of the recent record
Arsenal vs Brentford in the Premier League has become a favorable pairing for the Gunners since that first-time defeat in August 2021. Since then:
* Arsenal are unbeaten in seven league meetings with Brentford, with five wins and two draws.
* The most recent clash at the Emirates ended 1–1 in April 2025, when Brentford snatched a point from their only two shots of the game.
* Brentford have not won away at Arsenal in any competition since 1938, a run of seven winless trips.
Brentford have shown they can frustrate Arsenal in short bursts, particularly at the Emirates, where the last three league meetings include two 1–1 draws and a narrow 2–1 home win for Arsenal. Even so, the larger sample points towards an Arsenal side that usually finds a way to take points from this fixture.
### Current form and momentum
#### Arsenal: unbeaten but managing fatigue
Arsenal’s form line across competitions shows a side handling a heavy schedule with maturity.
Recent results:
* Slavia Prague 0–3 Arsenal
* Sunderland 2–2 Arsenal
* Arsenal 4–1 Tottenham
* Arsenal 3–1 Bayern Munich
* Chelsea 1–1 Arsenal
That stretch includes big performances against Spurs and Bayern and two away draws at Sunderland and Chelsea that felt more frustrating than alarming. The draw at Stamford Bridge came after Moises Caicedo’s red card, with Arsenal failing to turn long spells of possession into clear chances, but they still extended their unbeaten run to 17 matches.
Defensively, they hold the best record in the league. [SoccerStats](https://www.soccerstats.com/pmatch.asp?league=england&stats=131-18-14-2026) lists just seven goals conceded in 13 league games, an average of 0.54 per match. At the Emirates that drops to 0.33 per game, with only two goals allowed in six league home fixtures. Arsenal have yet to fail to score at home and have scored in 12 of their 13 league matches overall.
There is a small warning sign. Their average goals conceded over the last eight league matches is about 17 percent higher than their season average, which reflects recent lapses and a run of four games without a clean sheet.
#### Brentford: competitive, but split personality
Brentford’s recent run is strong enough to place them in the European conversation.
Recent results:
* Grimsby 0–5 Brentford
* Crystal Palace 2–0 Brentford
* Brentford 3–1 Newcastle
* Brighton 2–1 Brentford
* Brentford 3–1 Burnley
Four wins from their last six league games show an upward trend. SoccerStats notes that their points per game across the last eight league fixtures is almost 29 percent higher than their season average. At home they have beaten Liverpool, Newcastle and Manchester United, scoring freely.
The problem lies away from west London. Brentford have lost five of six away league games, conceding 12 goals and scoring only six. BBC numbers show they have won just one of their last 11 midweek Premier League games and only four of their last 23 London derbies in the league, all against Crystal Palace or West Ham.
They still score in most away matches. Brentford have found the net in five of six league trips and have scored first in nine of their 13 league games overall. Almost half of their league goals arrive after the 75th minute, which hints at a team that keeps pushing late on but often has too much to repair.
### Statistical picture: home specialists vs away strugglers
The raw league table explains the story, but the deeper numbers around this Arsenal vs Brentford match preview sharpen it.
* Points per game
* Arsenal: 2.31 overall, 2.67 at home, 2.50 across the last eight league games.
* Brentford: 1.46 overall, 0.50 away, 1.88 across the last eight.
* Goals scored
* Arsenal: 25 league goals, 16 at home. That is 1.92 goals per league game overall and 2.67 at the Emirates.
* Brentford: 21 league goals, six away, giving 1.62 per match overall and 1.00 per away game.
* Goals conceded
* Arsenal: seven league goals conceded, two at home. That equals 0.54 per match overall and 0.33 at home.
* Brentford: 20 conceded in total, 12 away. That works out at 1.54 per match overall and 2.00 away from home.
* Scoring and clean sheet rates in the home vs away split
* Arsenal at home: scoring in 100 percent of league games, clean sheets in 67 percent, conceding in only 33 percent.
* Brentford away: scoring in 83 percent of league games, clean sheets in 17 percent, conceding in 83 percent.
* Corners
* Arsenal at home: average 6.17 corners for and 2.17 against per match.
* Brentford away: average 6.33 corners for and 4.83 against.
Those numbers describe a typical pattern at the Emirates: Arsenal create regular pressure, allow few shots, and grow stronger as games progress. SoccerStats’ simulated second half table has them leading the division for performance after the break.
Brentford’s away numbers support the picture of an open game. They create enough shots and territory to win plenty of corners, but their low clean sheet rate and high goals against figure indicate that their defensive structure breaks down under sustained pressure.
### Tactical preview: shapes, pressing and key battles
#### Arsenal: control with rotation
Mikel Arteta is expected to continue with a 4-3-3 framework in this Arsenal vs Brentford match preview, even with personnel changes. Recent previews from Sports Illustrated, Sports Mole and The Short Fuse converge around a similar idea: Raya in goal, a rotated back four, a midfield anchored by Declan Rice, and a flexible front line.
Arteta has spoken about managing minutes case by case during this intense period. With Aston Villa away at the weekend, several positions could change from the Chelsea draw:
* At centre back, Cristhian Mosquera and Piero Hincapie look set to remain together if William Saliba is not risked.
* At full back, Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ben White are options to give Riccardo Calafiori and Jurrien Timber a rest, especially with Calafiori one booking away from suspension.
* In midfield, Rice should start as the holding presence, with Martin Zubimendi and Martin Odegaard likely to join him. Eberechi Eze may finally be given a breather from the starting eleven.
* Up front, Viktor Gyokeres is ready for more minutes after his return from injury, with Bukayo Saka and either Gabriel Martinelli or Noni Madueke from the flanks.
The blueprint will look familiar. Arsenal will seek to pin Brentford back through field position, triangles on both flanks and quick counterpressing once they lose the ball. The focus will fall on stopping transitions. Adrian Clarke’s tactical column on Arsenal.com highlighted Brentford’s threat from fast breaks and long passes from Jordan Henderson and Mikkel Damsgaard into the channels. Arsenal’s rest defence structure around Rice and the centre backs has to stay compact to cut off those runs.
Set pieces remain another key area. Arsenal have scored plenty from corners this season and Brentford defend them well, conceding only two set play goals and recording the best expected goals against figure from dead balls in the division. Routines will need precision rather than sheer volume.
#### Brentford: direct breaks, long throws and aerial power
Keith Andrews has shifted between a back four and a back five. At home he has often used a 4-2-3-1. Away to Big Six opponents, analysts expect a return to a 5-3-2 or 3-4-1-2 that can slide into a back five without the ball.
Across various previews the projected shape contains:
* Caoimhin Kelleher in goal.
* Michael Kayode, Nathan Collins, Sepp van den Berg, Kristoffer Ajer and Rico Henry across the back line in some combination.
* Henderson and either Yarmoliuk or Jensen as central midfielders with Damsgaard in a higher role.
* Dango Ouattara and Igor Thiago as the two forwards.
Brentford average about 42 percent possession in the league. Their plan is simple and effective. Sit in a compact mid or low block, hunt for regains deep in their own half, then hit early, direct passes into space for pacey runners such as Ouattara, Kevin Schade or Thiago. They already have four league goals from fast breaks this season.
Kayode’s long throw is a major weapon. Clarke described it as possibly the best in the division, with a low, flat trajectory that sends the ball across the face of goal. Brentford lead the league for headed shots and use that strength in both boxes. Arsenal must be aggressive in attacking those deliveries at the near post.
The other tactical note is Brentford’s game management. They have led in eight of their first 12 league matches but turned only four of those leads into wins and lost three of them. A low equalising rate of 25 percent shows that once they fall behind, they struggle to change the flow of the match.
### Key players to watch
#### Arsenal
Declan Rice
Arteta described Rice as a “lighthouse” in the squad, and the numbers back up that influence. He gives Arsenal control in defensive transitions by cutting out counters, while his passing allows quick switches of play against packed defences. His battles with Henderson in midfield will shape the tempo.
Eberechi Eze
BBC statistics show Eze with six goal involvements in his first five home Premier League appearances for Arsenal, four goals and two assists. No Arsenal player has ever produced more across their first five league matches at the Emirates. If he starts, his ability to arrive in the box late and combine with Odegaard could crack Brentford’s defensive block.
Viktor Gyokeres
Back from injury and building rhythm, Gyokeres offers direct running in behind and more penalty box presence than Arsenal had at Chelsea. His movement between Brentford’s centre backs and wing backs can stretch the back line and open lanes for Saka or Madueke.
David Raya
Facing his former club again, Raya’s distribution will be central against a team that presses in bursts. Quick, accurate passes out of pressure are needed to prevent Brentford from trapping Arsenal deep. He will also have to command his area on Kayode’s long throws and set pieces.
#### Brentford
Igor Thiago
With 10 league goals from 13 games according to Sports Mole and 11 in some tallies, Thiago sits just behind Erling Haaland in the scoring charts. Four of those goals have come away from home, three of them giving Brentford a 1–0 lead. His movement inside the box and aerial strength make him the main threat to an Arsenal defence missing Gabriel and possibly Saliba.
Jordan Henderson
The veteran midfielder has been singled out by Adrian Clarke as the heartbeat of Brentford’s engine room. He sets the pressing tone and hits the long, accurate passes that launch counterattacks. Rice and Zubimendi must limit his time on the ball.
Michael Kayode
His long throws have already produced several goals this season. He also provides attacking thrust on the right flank. Arsenal’s left side, likely Calafiori or Lewis-Skelly with Martinelli, needs to manage his overlaps while still offering width in possession.
### Team news and likely lineups
Arteta’s press conference confirmed that:
* William Saliba and Leandro Trossard are “a matter of days” away from returning, with late fitness tests deciding their involvement.
* Gabriel Magalhaes and Kai Havertz are still weeks away.
* Gabriel Jesus is working back from an ACL injury and has only just rejoined matchday squads.
Brentford’s situation is clearer:
* Reiss Nelson is ineligible against his parent club.
* Fabio Carvalho, Antoni Milambo and Josh Dasilva are long term knee absentees.
* Thiago took a knock late on against Burnley but is expected to be ready.
**Projected Arsenal XI (4-3-3):**
Raya; White, Mosquera, Hincapie, Lewis-Skelly; Rice, Zubimendi, Odegaard; Madueke, Gyokeres, Martinelli.
Projected Brentford XI (5-3-2):
Kelleher; Kayode, Collins, Van den Berg, Ajer, Henry; Yarmoliuk, Henderson, Damsgaard; Ouattara, Thiago.
Any late clearance for Saliba or Trossard would change the team sheet, but not the basic structure.
### Prediction and closing thoughts
All the data that feeds into this Arsenal vs Brentford match preview points toward a home win, yet there are enough warning signs to keep Arsenal sharp.
Brentford can score first, they attack dead balls with real height, and they carry one of the league’s in-form forwards. Arsenal have conceded more in recent weeks than earlier in the season and still lack their first-choice central defensive pairing.
The contest should tilt around two questions.
* Can Arsenal keep control of transitions when they commit numbers forward.
* Can Brentford withstand long spells without the ball without giving up repeated high quality chances.
Given Arsenal’s record at the Emirates, their habit of finishing games strongly, and Brentford’s issues when they fall behind, the evidence points towards a relatively tight match that the hosts manage to pull away from in the second half.
**Prediction: Arsenal 2 Brentford 0.**