We have a break in Suns basketball. They played on Monday and do not take the floor again until tomorrow night against the Houston Rockets. This strange stretch of three nights off gives us time to step back, breathe, analyze, and dive into a few thought exercises. And you know me. I love a good thought exercise.
After watching one of the latest episodes of Locked On Suns, host Ben Garcia dropped a valuable question. When Jalen Green returns, and you look at how well Collin Gillespie has played, what do you do? Who do you start? How do you operate as a team?
These questions are ripe for discussion. There are layers to peel back, angles to explore, and valleys of thought to wander through. So let us do that. I have an idea of where I think I will land, but once I start writing and working through the complexity in front of us, who knows where I will end up.
The Suns’ backcourt dilemma
We start with the simple fact that the Suns have a good problem in front of them. You have a reserve player who was given an opportunity this season, and he has run with it. Collin Gillespie has been utterly fantastic with the Suns and could potentially be the point guard of the future.
In 22 games, he is averaging 13.4 points, five assists, and 3.8 rebounds. He is doing it while shooting 44.2% from beyond the arc. In recent games, he has been given the chance to start, and he has run with it. As a reserve, in 19 games, he is averaging 25.7 minutes a night, 11.6 points, 4.8 assists, and 3.9 rebounds. As a starter, across 3 games, he is playing 33.7 minutes, scoring 24.3 points, handing out six assists, and grabbing 3.3 rebounds.
The problem comes when Jalen Green returns, which could be around Christmas.
The Suns will have a decision to make at that time. Do you start Green or do you start Gillespie? Do you ride the hot hand, or do you hand the reins back to the player who is making $33.3 million?
This is where I feel like I need to offer my usual disclaimer. I truly believe it is not about who you start, it is about who you finish with. I understand the purpose of starting lineups, and for this discussion, we can frame it around one question: Who gives the Suns the best chance to open games strong? Who applies pressure from the jump? Okay. That was two questions. But that is a fair place to start the conversation, as long as we keep in mind that finishing is what matters most.
Choosing the right five
The way I see it, the Suns have three starting lineup options in a world where everyone is healthy. And credit to Collin, he has played his way into these conversations.
The first starting lineup is the one many of us expected from the jump, and the only time everyone was healthy enough to start, it is the one we saw. That lineup had Devin Booker and Jalen Green in the backcourt, Grayson Allen on the wing, with Dillon Brooks and Mark Williams up front.
The second option is the version where Jalen Green comes in off the bench. Collin Gillespie replaces him in the starting group and runs the point.
The third option is the one where Collin Gillespie essentially replaces Grayson Allen, not positionally but in terms of being part of the five. That lineup has Gillespie, Booker, Green, Brooks, and Williams.
Those are the three options, and once I work through the pros and cons, you will have a chance to vote on which lineup you believe should open games. I know the cases I make will probably tilt the outcome, which means the poll will be biased from the start. Still, that is part of the thought exercise.
Option 1: The natural starting group
All right. Where to start?
I think the obvious place is pointing out that having Dillon Brooks at the four probably is not the most ideal setup from a roster construction standpoint. That said, Dillon has shown time and again that attitude can make up for size. He comes from the ilk of Draymond Green. Someone who punches above his weight positionally. His love for disruption and irritation has become a trait the rest of this team has adopted.
So if you look at these lineups and say we need a traditional power forward in that spot, I can agree with you to a point. I also think Dillon Brooks is the exception to the rule. Having him in these lineups gives you an elite point-of-attack defender. That matters.
With lineup option one, we explore what it looks like with Devin Booker and Jalen Green together. One of the challenges in this thought exercise is that we lack sufficient data. They played one healthy game together. They have logged a total of 21.6 minutes as a pairing. The team scored 71 points during that time and finished with a +14.5 margin.
That is where the numbers stop, and we are back to the conversation we had all summer as we tried to picture how these two might fit.
What stands out is the idea that they complement each other more than they overlap. Think about Bradley Beal and Devin Booker. That was duplication. They operated and excelled in the same spaces. With Booker and Green, that is not really the case. Both are below the 37% threshold you would prefer from three, although the more important part is where they like to take their shots.
Booker lives in the midrange. Comparing the last 4 seasons, you see that Booker takes 40.5% of his shots from there. Jalen Green only takes 19.4% of his attempts from that area.
When those two share the floor, the offensive spacing and rhythm open up in a different way. And in the tiny sample we have seen, that theory held up.
Lineup one also gives you an elite three-point shooter to spray out to when the defense collapses on the penetration that Jalen Green creates. Grayson Allen becomes a key cog in all of this. He benefits in a big way from having two shot creators on the floor with him in Devin Booker and Jalen Green.
The downside shows up on the defensive end. Collin Gillespie has spent all season showing us he is Villain Jr. He is a smaller guard, sure, but he is disruptive. He digs. He fights. He rebounds in traffic. Among guards who have played more than 20 games this season, Gillespie ranks 20th in the league with a 7.1% rebounding percentage. For some perspective, Jalen Green last season with the Rockets had a 6.5% rebounding percentage.
I will also say this. Judging Jalen Green by last season’s numbers is not entirely fair. That was a different team and a different system. And what we have seen from this Suns group is a completely different attitude. Look at Dillon Brooks. He is taking full advantage of what this system gives him, and he is having a career year. Collin Gillespie is having a career year. We were robbed of the experience with Jalen Green, so we do not know if he would be in the middle of a career year as well. That makes leaning on his old metrics a little tricky.
Option 2: The lineup that bends the plan
Lineup two is the same as lineup one, except you are replacing Jalen Green with Collin Gillespie. We know Collin can play well within this system. He has shown it all season, whether he is coming off the bench or starting. He can penetrate too, and it is worth noting that while Devin Booker leads the team with 14.7 drives a game, Collin Gillespie sits fourth with 7.1. Last season, Jalen Green averaged 10.5 drives a game.
However, then you start to examine the facilitation numbers. And this is where the argument gets interesting. And this is where I start to veer from the argument for Collin and Booker playing with Green on the bench.
For those who believe Devin Booker and Jalen Green are a duplicative pairing, I would argue that the closer duplication is evident with Devin Booker and Collin Gillespie.
When you examine facilitation, Booker has an assist percentage of 30.5%. Collin Gillespie sits at 26.1%. Gillespie does have the cleaner assist-to-turnover ratio at 2.8, while Booker sits at 1.8. You could make the case that having two facilitators on the floor at the same time has its value, although you could also argue that the best version of the Suns has a true facilitator on the floor at all times. That line of thinking leads you to have Collin come off the bench to maintain the playmaking rhythm steady throughout the game.
What stands out is that Collin Gillespie becomes a more effective version of himself when he is not sharing the floor with Devin Booker. With Booker out there, Gillespie has an assist percentage of 25.6%. When Booker sits, that number rises to 30.4%.
Let me look at this another way.
Per 36 is a good equalizer. It does not reveal the true raw numbers, but it inflates production proportionally and helps even the comparison. Collin Gillespie has played 589 minutes this season. Of those, 238 were without Devin Booker. In that time, he averages 7.8 assists and 2.7 turnovers per 36. Booker has played 400 minutes without Gillespie, and in those minutes, he averages 7 assists per 36. Oh, and 3.7 turnovers.
The point here is simple. Booker turns the ball over more, but both players provide the necessary playmaking when the other is not out there. So if you start Devin Booker and give him the early playmaking load, you can then weave in Gillespie throughout the game to pick up those duties, always keeping a steady playmaker on the floor.
And yes, I know. ‘Point Book’ is a phrase this fan base grumbles at. Booker is tied with James Harden for the most turnovers this season at 82, so the idea of him facilitating less is appealing. Having Gillespie on the floor with him does allow Booker to slide back into his more natural scoring role. And I cannot argue against that.
What I can argue is this.
You are paying a player $33.3 million to play for you. He is young, athletic, and needs a real chance to show what he can become with this team. Choosing Colin Gillespie over Jalen Green in option two is our short-term greed getting in the way of our long-term greed. Short term, Collin has been great. It has only been three games as a starter, but all season he has shown the grit and toughness you want from him. Long term, we need to know what we have in Jalen Green. You will not discover that with him coming off the bench.
It sends the wrong message to him. It sends the wrong message to the team. It sends the wrong message to the fans. We made this trade, brought in this young talent, and then would be turning around and saying we are not willing to give him the platform to show what that talent can be. We also would not be giving him the opportunity to build his value, which matters if a decision comes later in the season or at the trade deadline.
That is the heart of my argument against option two.
Option 3: The three-guard gambit
Option three has Grayson Allen moving to the bench, and you roll out a three-guard lineup.
I can already hear the pushback. “That lineup is too small.” Grayson Allen is shorter than Devin Booker in terms of height and length. Their wingspans are close, with Booker at 6’8” and Allen at 6’6”. Their heights are similar, and Grayson may carry a little more girth. And three-guard lineups aren’t our favorite, considering what we experienced last year.
But Collin Gillespie is not Tyus Jones.
Yes, this lineup shrinks you a bit, although it is not the small forward spot that creates the issue. It is the point. Collin Gillespie is much smaller than Booker as a defender. In size, however, but not in heart.
If size is your biggest argument, remember that Dillon Brooks is starting at the four. This is not a roster built to beat teams with size. It is built to beat teams with hustle, disruption, speed, and pressure on the glass. Yes, this lineup gets smaller, although again, the size hit comes at the point.
But if Collin has shown us anything this season, it is that he, like Dillon Brooks, plays above his weight class. He fights bigger than he measures.
So you can view option three as a blitz-style starting lineup. You reward Collin for what he has done this season. You lean into his facilitation. You add another player who can penetrate and collapse defenses. Grayson has shown he can do that too, although Collin does it with playmaking on his mind.
Grayson off the bench adds a layer of scoring from that squad. Last year, a season in which he started 7 games and was a reserve for 57, his three-point shooting didn’t falter much. He was 47.3% from deep as a starter and 41.7% as a reserve.
For those who believe Devin Booker off-ball (that’d be me) is the best version of him, and for those who want to see Jalen Green get his opportunity, this might be the cleanest route. Both Collin and Dillon Brooks give you point of attack defense. Collin can fill the shooting role Grayson occupies in option one, finding open pockets when the defense collapses. And by weaving in another layer of playmaking, this lineup carries real danger.
My challenge with this option is the same reason I like Collin Gillespie coming off the bench in the first place. It lets you keep a playmaker on the floor throughout the game rather than burning all your creation at the opening tip.
I have worked my way through all three scenarios. Where do I land? Like Natalie Imbruglia, I am torn.
From a starting standpoint, option one gives you everything this team needs to open games. I do not want to discount what Collin has done, but I think the approach to start with stability, feel out the opponent, and then weave in what Collin Gillespie brings as a playmaker next to Jalen Green while Devin Booker sits, or next to Booker while Green sits, may be the smartest option.
I also think the third option could be a fantastic closing lineup for the Suns. And I’m really tempted to throw my vote that way. This lineup from the jump. It is loaded with playmaking, loaded with shooting, loaded with penetration, and loaded with defensive disruption. And it aligns with the “long-term greed philosophy”, as it allows you to see what both Gillespie and Green can bring. It allows for development. It allows the organization to truly understand what it has.
Based on what we have seen from Jordan Ott so far, he is not tied to one rigid philosophy. He adjusts to the opponent. There will be nights where the best path is a small three-guard lineup. There will be nights where Grayson Allen unleashes holy hell from beyond the arc. He will move the pieces as needed.
So I do not think there is a wrong answer here. And hell, I said I didn’t know where I’d end up when I started this thing. Option three it is for me!
Now talk me out of it.