While Liverpool are consistently dropping points, their expected goals statistics are not indicating that they should be losing, so why is this?
Since Liverpool’s losing run began against Crystal Palace, the Reds have lost nine, won four and drawn one of their last 14 matches in all competitions.
During that time, they have scored 17 goals and conceded 25.
Their expected goals (xG) figure is very different, however, with the Reds underperforming their tally while opposition sides consistently punch above their weight.
Liverpool’s unusual xG comparison
Expected goals is a measurement used to calculate the likelihood that a shot will result in a goal. In other words, a measurement of how good the chance was.
For example, if a shot has an xG of 0.4 out of 1, it is likely to be scored four out of 10 times.
Over the last 14 games, FotMob tells us Liverpool have created 26.08 xG but have only actually scored 17 times, suggesting their finishing has been to blame for their lack of goals.
Combine this with conceding 25 goals from an xG of 19.12, and you get a Liverpool team that are frustrated and Arne Slot struggling to explain his side’s drop-off.
While the Reds are still producing a reasonable level of xG, arguably the biggest reason for their problems in front of goal is the quality of chances they are creating.
Liverpool had 23 shots against Sunderland totalling 1.37 xG, according to Opta, equating to an average of 0.06 per shot – that means on each opportunity they averaged just a six in 100 chance of scoring.
The last time they managed a lower xG per shot rate, in a match that saw them shoot more than 20 times, was in January 2016 against Arsenal (0.053).
This suggests Liverpool aren’t getting into dangerous enough areas to make their efforts count.
Individual accuracy
LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - Sunday, October 19, 2025: Liverpool's Cody Gakpo reacts after missing a chance during the FA Premier League match between Liverpool FC and Manchester United FC at Anfield. Man Utd won 2-1. (Photo by David Rawcliffe/Propaganda)
Individual accuracy plays a part as well, Cody Gakpo being a prime example this season.
A total of 70 players have had 15 or more shots in this season’s top flight. Only Everton‘s Thierno Barry (6.7 percent) has a worse rate of shots on target than Gakpo, who has directed just six of his 33 shots on target.
Most of his shots haven’t been from ideal positions, though, indicated by the fact that before the weekend’s win over West Ham, the Dutchman had the lowest xG (3.92) of any Premier League player to have attempted more than 30 shots this season.
It hasn’t just been Gakpo who seems to have lost his shooting boots.
Despite taking more shots than any team in the division, Liverpool have the lowest accuracy rate in the Premier League, putting just 26.5 percent of their 15.4 shots per 90 on target.
Where are Liverpool shooting from?
LONDON, ENGLAND - Sunday, November 30, 2025: Liverpool's Alexander Isak reacts to his shot going over the bar during the FA Premier League match between West Ham United FC and Liverpool FC at the London Stadium. (Photo by David Rawcliffe/Propaganda)
Part of the solution to maximising Liverpool’s attacking output would be to get their players into better shooting positions.
Too often this season have the Reds failed to break down the opposition, often resorting to shots with multiple bodies between them and the goal.
They have also struggled to get their best finisher, Alexander Isak, into scoring positions.
The Swedish striker is barely involved in build-up and is suffering from a lack of service in the box, touching the ball just twice in the area against Sunderland and three times vs. West Ham.
Salah’s enormous drop in form has also been well documented. Last season, the Egyptian averaged 1.25 goals and assists combined per 90 mins in the league.
However, this campaign’s combined per 90 rate is less than last season’s, at just 0.48.
This is partially down to where Salah is shooting from. His average shot distance from goal is 15.3 yards this season, whereas last time around he was closer at 14.5 and therefore slightly more likely to score.
Arne Slot comments on luck
While Slot has to be careful not to blame Liverpool’s form on luck, he has alluded to the Reds’ misfortunes being a factor.
“We’ve been not as bad as people said we were,” Slot told Sky Sports before the Sunderland match.
“We have to do certain things definitely better than we did, but so many games we’ve played, the first chance for the opponent went in.
“So for example, the Manchester United game, one of our players needs four stitches and the referee doesn’t blow his whistle. Every other time a referee will blow his whistle for a head injury…
LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - Wednesday, December 3, 2025: Liverpool's Dominik Szoboszlai during the FA Premier League match between Liverpool FC and Sunderland AFC at Anfield. (Photo by David Rawcliffe/Propaganda)
“But we need to do better in certain situations, but we’ve done better in my opinion, over the course of the game, than the general opinion is.
“That’s why the West Ham game, for the first time, the first chance of the other team didn’t go in. Fortunately for us, it was the only chance, and it happened after 90 minutes, but if Bowen scores, then I think we’d have been criticised a lot again.
“The score has so much impact on what people think about the game. It’s my job to look through those results.”
How to change
LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - Wednesday, December 3, 2025: Liverpool's Florian Wirtz receives instructions from head coach Arne Slot (L) during the FA Premier League match between Liverpool FC and Sunderland AFC at Anfield. (Photo by David Rawcliffe/Propaganda)
Of course, Liverpool’s latest two fixtures have been against West Ham and Sunderland, but it does appear that Liverpool have begun to arrest the bundles of goals being conceded.
Against the latter, though, this came at the cost of a goalscoring threat, with Liverpool sitting deep at home.
As evidenced by this xG shot map, Liverpool did much better in the second half to retain possession further up the pitch.
They won the ball back more frequently in the opposition half, but Sunderland were well-organised and limited the Reds’ creativity.
One way teams can try to get around this is by playing quickly and directly, making the most of counter-attacks.
Jurgen Klopp once said: “If you win the ball back high up the pitch and you are close to the goal, it is only one pass away a really good opportunity most of the time.
“No playmaker in the world can be as good as a good counter-pressing situation.”
With Liverpool’s press faltering and chemistry lacking, arguably the best thing they can do is to play the ball forward more quickly in order to find spaces before the opposition defence can set.
It is easier said than done, though. It seems Slot brought Florian Wirtz, Isak and co. to be able to break teams down, but often the team’s work off the ball is even more important to their chance-creation.
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