James Copley reacts as Sunderland draw 1-1 with Liverpool at Anfield
Sunderland continued their high-flying return to the Premier League by taking a point away from champions Liverpool.
Regis Le Bris and the Sunderland faithful could not have dreamed of a better start to life back in the top-flight than what has played out so far this season.
The Black Cats currently sit just outside the Champions League places on goal difference and occupy a Europa League spot as teams head into the busy winter period. And after taking points off table-topping Arsenal and reigning champions Liverpool recently, as well as all three points against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge earlier in the season, Sunderland will not be worried about this weekend’s visit to the Etihad Stadium to face Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City.
Currently sitting above giants Manchester United and Liverpool, Le Bris’ side have surprised many as the pick of the newly promoted sides and are 12 points above the relegation zone and look set to retain their place in the Premier League, barring a disastrous downturn of form in the second half of the season. But what are the trends in the underlying statistics telling us about how the rest of the season could go for this Sunderland side?
Is a drop-off in attack and defence coming?
Regis Le Bris has set-up his side to be as efficient as possible.placeholder image
Regis Le Bris has set-up his side to be as efficient as possible. | AFP via Getty Images
Sunderland don’t score many goals, with 18 from 14 games, seeing them sit in 14th for most goals scored, but their underlying statistics show that they are overperforming their already low tally of goals.
When analysing through expected goals (xG), the Black Cats have scored those 18 from an xG of 14.52, which sees them placed above the bottom three in 17th for best attacks when measured by this metric. This overperformance of +3.48 is the fourth biggest overperformance in the league behind Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City and Aston Villa. This stat represents a trend of Le Bris’ attackers being efficient in front of goal when they are not creating the best chances, and if this hot streak slows down, then Sunderland’s form could also falter.
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When also looking at Sunderland’s underlying defensive metrics, the same trends occur. The backline has conceded only 14 goals in 14 games, and at this rate of conceding a goal a game, they would end up with one of the league’s best defences. Currently, only Arsenal, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace boast better defensive numbers than this, but again, this side are riding their luck a bit when it comes to expected goals against (xGA).
Sunderland sit in 13th place when analysing which team has allowed the most xGA and have the second biggest overperformance at +6.29 behind Crystal Palace’s +7.64. This means that the defence have conceded chances worth conceding 20.29 goals in the league this season, but have been lucky that opposition attackers have not taken more from these chances created. Judging by both of these trends, it would be fair to assume that a drop-off is coming for Sunderland, especially as there is a high level of overperformance in both attack and defence.
However, with this side being such an unknown in the league this season, it might be that they are riding the crest of the wave and catching teams by surprise with the way they play. It is not uncommon for a team to overperform for the duration of a season, with Nottingham Forest an example of that last season, when they went on to secure European football under Nuno Espirito Santo, so there is still a big chance Le Bris’ side carry this momentum with them and finish where many people, including Sunderland fans, never imagined they could finish this season.
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