Unai Emery will hope to get one over his former employers at Villa Park. Look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League clash with our Aston Villa vs Arsenal prediction and preview.
Aston Villa vs Arsenal: The Key Stats
Arsenal claimed all three points against Aston Villa in 46.5% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
The Gunners have not conceded more than twice across their last 108 games across all competitions, an all-time English Football League record.
Villa have lost just one of their last 25 Premier League home games since losing this fixture last season.
Arsenal will face a stern test of their Premier League title credentials when they visit Aston Villa, who have made a habit recently of derailing the Gunners’ top-flight ambitions.
Villa dealt a seismic blow to Arsenal’s 2023-24 title bid with a 2-0 away victory in mid-April 2024, helping Manchester City to win the league. A 2-2 draw at the Emirates last January again stunted Arsenal’s championship pursuit as Liverpool surged out of sight.
But there appears to be a different feel around Arsenal’s 2025-26 hopes. Mikel Arteta’s side are the runaway favourites in Opta’s end-of-season predictions, clinching the title in a massive 82.0% of league simulations.
That may come as little surprise given Arsenal head to Villa Park with a five-point cushion over second-place Manchester City, after Arteta’s side swept Brentford aside 2-0 on Wednesday night.
Mikel Merino scored one and set up the other for Bukayo Saka against the Bees, with the Spaniard repaying Saka for his assist in last Sunday’s 1-1 draw away to Chelsea.
With Merino nodding past Robert Sánchez, eight of Arsenal’s last 13 Premier League away goals have been headers, including six of their nine on the road this season. Concerningly for Villa, four of the last six top-flight home goals they have conceded came via the same method, including each of the last three.
Arsenal shot map PL 2025-26
Arteta may have been frustrated to not overcome 10-man Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, but Arsenal’s impressive away record still stands at just one loss in their last 21 Premier League trips (W11 D9).
The only defeat in that run came in a 1-0 reverse against champions Liverpool in August. Each of their last three away losses have been to nil, with Arsenal unbeaten in 30 on the road when scoring at least once in the match (W21 D9).
Arteta also has the fourth-highest win rate (53% – won 59/112) of the 40 managers to oversee more than 100 Premier League away games. He is one of only five to have won more than half of their 100+ fixtures on the road, along with esteemed company in Pep Guardiola, Alex Ferguson, Jürgen Klopp and José Mourinho.
Central to that strong run away from home, as well as a remarkable start to this campaign, has been their defence. Arsenal have not conceded more than twice in any of their last 108 games in all competitions, the outright longest run of any team in English Football League history after surpassing Manchester United’s 107 between 2016 and 2018.
But third-place Villa are in red-hot form as well and now have an opportunity to move just three points behind the leaders with a victory at their Villa Park fortress.
Villa have lost just one of their last 25 Premier League home games (W16 D8) since losing this exact fixture in August last season. They have won each of their last five at Villa Park since going down 3-0 against Crystal Palace in August.
Unai Emery’s side have won their last four Premier League outings overall, and six across all competitions, after edging a seven-goal thriller away to Brighton on Wednesday. Despite going 2-0 down, Ollie Watkins‘ double dragged them level before second-half goals from Amadou Onana and Donyell Malen saw them win 4-3.
Brighton v Aston Villa xG race
Watkins, struggling with a knee issue, had scored just twice in 18 previous league outings before his first-half double on the south coast. He also has six goals in 10 Premier League games against Arsenal, only netting more against the Seagulls (9).
Some home optimism may be curbed by the fact that Villa have lost six of their eight games against sides starting the day top of the table (W1 D1) since their 2019 return to the Premier League. Their only win in this run came at home to Arsenal in December 2023, however.
Only Ross Barkley and Tyrone Mings are set to be missing from Emery’s squad. Arteta, meanwhile, will sweat over the fitness of Cristhian Mosquera, who limped off against Brentford, with Gabriel Magalhães already out.
William Saliba and Leandro Trossard could return in a boost for Arsenal at both ends of the pitch, while Arteta will hope Declan Rice‘s knock against Brentford late on is not a major issue. The England midfielder did say he was “fine” after the game. Kai Havertz is the only other absentee for the visitors.
Aston Villa vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Trossard and Thomas Partey were on target as Arsenal ran out 2-0 winners in this exact fixture last season. That was Arsenal’s 15th Premier League win at Villa Park; at no away ground have they won more games in the competition.
Villa will still fancy their chances, having won five of their 12 Premier League games against Arsenal (D1 L6) since their top-flight return six years ago. It had taken them 45 previous league matches against the Gunners to achieve as many wins before relegation to the Championship (D14 L26).
Aston Villa vs Arsenal Prediction
The Opta supercomputer has backed the Premier League leaders as Arsenal triumphed in 46.5% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Villa have impressed recently, though, and still hold a 28.9% chance of victory. The draw made up the rest of the data-led scenarios in 24.5%.
Aston Villa vs Arsenal Prediction December 2025
Aston Villa vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Aston Villa: Emiliano Martínez, Matty Cash, Ezri Konsa, Pau Torres, Lucas Digne, Boubacar Kamara, Youri Tielemans, John McGinn, Morgan Rogers, Emiliano Buendía, Donyell Malen.
Head coach: Unai Emery
Arsenal: David Raya, Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Piero Hincapié, Riccardo Calafiori, Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Eberechi Eze, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Mikel Merino.
Head coach: Mikel Arteta
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Saturday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Premier League Stats Opta
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