Manchester City look like Arsenal’s main challengers, but can they overcome a strong Sunderland side? We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at the Etihad Stadium with our Man City vs Sunderland prediction and preview.
Man City vs Sunderland: The Key Stats
Manchester City have won 24 of their last 26 Premier League games against newly-promoted clubs and the Opta supercomputer expects another success here, with the hosts victorious against Sunderland in 73.6% of simulations.
Sunderland have never won away in 13 attempts against Man City in the Premier League.
City have conceded eight goals in their last three Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 12.
When this fixture was first etched into the football calendar, Manchester City fans will have been forgiven for expecting it to be one of their easier games of the Premier League campaign, and many Sunderland fans will have themselves been expecting a drubbing.
After all, this is a team who have dominated English football for much of the last 10 years versus a side that finished fourth in the Championship last season.
Fast forward 14 games, though, and this suddenly feels like a different proposition for both.
Man City are second and have won their last two league matches, but they look like being tested by any side with genuine quality at the moment, and their defence currently feels as vulnerable as it did during last season’s horror show.
Sunderland, meanwhile, could be one of the Premier League’s greatest ever newly-promoted teams. They have collected 23 points from 14 games so far – only five fewer than City – and nearly as many as fellow promoted sides Leeds United (14) and Burnley (10) combined.
Régis Le Bris’ side have already caused upsets this season, defeating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, while drawing with Arsenal and Liverpool. There is a genuine chance they could get something from Man City here, too.
City have scored eight goals across their last two matches against Leeds and Fulham, but have also conceded six times, and there is little confidence in their ability to hold on to a lead at the moment.
They were pulled back to 2-2 after going two goals ahead at home to Leeds last weekend before Phil Foden came to the rescue in stoppage time.
Four days later, when cruising with a 5-1 lead away to Fulham, they sat off too much and were fortunate to escape with a 5-4 win in the end. They had Josko Gvardiol to thank for his goal-line clearance in the 98th minute.
Fulham vs Man City xG race
The added complication for Pep Guardiola in this weekend’s match against Sunderland is that his side face Real Madrid at the Bernabeu in the UEFA Champions League next week.
Guardiola would typically use a fixture of this type as an opportunity to rest his star players with an eye on what is expected to be a physically demanding game in Madrid, but it’s hard to imagine that he currently feels confident enough in his reserve players to take that chance.
When he made wholesale changes for the visit of Bayer Leverkusen in their most recent Champions League outing, his rotated team lacked any semblance of cohesion and eventually fell to a tepid defeat.
It’s a mistake Guardiola will be keen to avoid making a second time and changes will likely have to be at a minimum for Sunderland’s visit to the Etihad Stadium.
When a newly-promoted side starts a season as well as Sunderland have, observers are normally waiting to see how long it will take for the bubble to burst.
The Black Cats might be different, though. A defeat at Fulham last month in which they created just 0.17 xG and conceded 2.16 felt like it might stall their season, and those fears were realised when going two goals down inside 15 minutes at home to Bournemouth next time out.
Instead, Sunderland fought back, overturning Bournemouth’s lead to win 3-2 at the Stadium of Light before they greatly improved defensively when drawing 1-1 with Liverpool at Anfield in midweek – a game they could have won in the final minute, but Wilson Isidor‘s goal-bound shot after rounding Alisson was blocked by Federico Chiesa.
Liverpool v Sunderland stats
Le Bris will need to make full use of this squad to get a result at the Etihad, and he has the majority of his stars available. The only key absence is set to be summer signing Habib Diarra, who has been out since September with a groin problem.
Guardiola, meanwhile, is set to have to continue without the assistance of Rodri, while Mateo Kovacic remains unavailable for the foreseeable future.
Man City vs Sunderland Head-to-Head
Man City have won their last six Premier League games against Sunderland, with this the first meeting since a 2-0 away win in March 2017.
Sunderland have never won away in 13 attempts against City in the Premier League. Their last away top-flight win there was in December 1981 at Maine Road.
Man City have never lost a Premier League game at the Etihad against Sunderland in 11 meetings – only Newcastle United (20) and West Brom (12) have played more games there without winning than the Black Cats.
Man City vs Sunderland Prediction
The Opta supercomputer considers Manchester City to be heavy favourites for this match despite Sunderland’s strong start to the season; City were the winners in 73.6% of simulations, with 15.4% of sims ending in a draw. Sunderland upset the odds with an away victory in just 11.1% of sims.
Man City v Sunderland Opta match prediction
Man City vs Sunderland Predicted Lineups
Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matheus Nunes, Rúben Dias, Josko Gvardiol, Nico O’Reilly, Nico González, Bernardo Silva, Tijjani Reijnders, Phil Foden, Jérémy Doku, Erling Haaland.
Head coach: Pep Guardiola
Sunderland: Robin Roefs, Trai Hume, Nordi Mukiele, Omar Alderete, Reinildo, Granit Xhaka, Noah Sadiki, Enzo Le Fée, Bertrand Traoré, Chemsdine Talbi, Wilson Isidor.
Head coach: Régis Le Bris
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Premier League Stats Opta
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