Written by BillyTheKid
Need A Better Performance Against Chelsea
After our first home defeat against Everton in the league and our first home defeat of the season and worst performance of the season, the Cherries are at home again on Saturday at 3 pm. In the eight home Premier League games against Chelsea, AFCB have only won one home game and that was in the 2018-19 season when we won 4-0. Chelsea have won five games.
AFC Bournemouth v Chelsea
AFCB Win
AFCB Win
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Draw
Draw
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Chelsea Win
Chelsea Win
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Chelsea’s Italian manager Enzo Maresca, in his first season in charge (2024-25), his team finished in 4th place, their best finish since the 2021-22 season, when they finished 3rd. Going into this game, Chelsea are in 4th place with 24 points. The Cherries are 14th with 19 points.
On their travels, Chelsea’s form has been better than their home form. Chelsea met fellow London side West Ham at the London Stadium for their first away game. Chelsea won 1-5 and it’s their best score so far this season. They beat Nottingham Forest 0-3, Spurs 0-1 and Burnley 0-2. They have drawn 2-2 with Brentford. Lost 2-1 against Manchester United and most recently against Leeds United 3-1.
At home, they have won 3 games. Fulham were their first home scalp with a 2-0 scoreline. Liverpool 2-1 and Wolves 3-0. They drew 2-2 with Crystal Palace and with 10 men, held Arsenal to 1-1. Chelsea lost to Brighton 1-3 and our last away opponents, Sunderland, 1-2.
The last time our two sides met at Dean Court was last season in September 2024. It was a game where Evanilson’s poor penalty was saved by Robert Sanchez. Anthony Taylor handed out 14 yellow cards, the most in a Premier League game. The only goal of the game came late in the game, when substitute Christopher Nkunku scored in the 86th minute after being on the pitch for seven minutes.
In all our home league games against Chelsea, AFCB have W 2, D 2, L 5.
In all competitions, AFCB W 5, D 3, L 14.
AFCB Team News
Lewis Cook and now Tyler Adams are suspended. Ben Gannon-Doak and Ryan Christie are injured.
AFCB Player To Watch
Not an easy one to pick after our recent result/s and form for this game. Adrien Truffert has been good and consistent with his games in our defence, be interesting to see who wins between him and Neto on Saturday. Also, we have Marcus Senesi back from suspension, a very important player in our team with his experience amongst some younger players in our defence.
Chelsea Team News
Moises Caicedo is suspended. On the injury front, Romeo Lavia, Levi Colwill and Dario Essugo.
Chelsea Player To Watch
They have a number to choose from. Reece James, their captain, had a very good game in midfield for 10-man Chelsea against league leaders Arsenal. He has scored 1 goal and is joint top with 3 assists. Cole Palmer is available again after injury. Joao Pedro scored in both games against us last season for Brighton, one a penalty. Neto has scored 4 goals and 2 assists in his last 7 games and is the leading scorer with 5 goals.
The Referee
Michael Oliver is the man in the middle for this game. He took our away game against Leeds United in September.
Matt Stevenson added…
I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for Chelsea. They had two home games (Wolves and Arsenal) and two away games (Burnley and Leeds), which include 3 teams with relegation worries. Chelsea have gained 7 points, which feels about right. The xG value for goals scored is 6.78, compared with 7 actual goals; Chelsea have conceded 4 goals with xGc estimating 4.66 goals, so there is no real over- or under-performance.
Goals Xg.jpg
Chelsea have had 5 different goal scorers (Neto has 3 goals). Five players have assists, with Gittens and Garnacho having 2 each.
The average positions of the starting line-ups are below. There appears to be no clear pattern. In the last away game, Chelsea sat back against Leeds, although they were more adventurous at Burnley, playing Neto high on the right wing.
Av Pos.jpg
The following plot compares the summary stats of Chelsea and AFCB over the last 4 games.
AFCB have had more attempts, but fewer big chances, and a higher xG, although Chelsea have scored more as we have been profligate. AFCB have been worse defensively, conceding more goal attempts, big chances, and a slightly worse xGc, although they have conceded many more goals.
Comparison.png
Possession and pass completion are relatively similar, as are chances created from set pieces. The chances conceded from set pieces show a big difference with AFCB conceding over 45% of chances from dead balls, although, as we have played Everton, Sunderland, W Ham and A Villa, who focus on set pieces, this may not be too surprising.
Percentages.png
Your say…
thegazzyb said…
As long as we win our home games, we’ll have a decent season.
We just need to make sure that the Everton loss was a blip and get back to winning at home with this one. Do that and things will be looking rosy again.
Plus, we have previously tended to have more joy against the top teams, so if the weather is okay and the player availability is okay, there is cause to be optimistic for this one.
Plus (again !), Iraola will be looking for a positive reaction after what he himself described as our worst performance under him in the loss to Everton.
Come on, lads. Turn these frowns upside down! – To join the conversation, please click here.
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DJ
I have been a writer and website administrator on the largest AFC Bournemouth fan website for almost 25 years. Previously on a now defunct fan network and since 2005 on vitalfootball.co.uk We have been nominated for various fan website awards down the years, however we have always been the bridesmaid…