Arsenal return to Villa Park for a fixture that carries clear title weight. The leaders sit on 33 points from 14 games, five clear of Manchester City, and bring an 11 match unbeaten league run. Aston Villa stand in third on 27 points, with a chance to cut the gap to three.
Both teams arrive in strong form. Villa have taken 24 points from their last nine league matches, with eight wins and one defeat in that spell. Arsenal have taken slightly fewer over the same run yet still control the table. The meeting feels like a test of which trend holds: Villa’s surge at home or Arsenal’s long stretch of defensive control.
Kick off comes at 12:30 at Villa Park on Saturday 6 December. The broadcast sits in the early slot, so the rest of the league will watch to see whether Arsenal can protect their lead or whether Villa drag themselves into a live title race.
### Head to head context
Since Villa returned to the Premier League in 2019, this fixture has been far more even than many Arsenal supporters would prefer. Villa have five wins, one draw and six defeats in 12 league meetings in that period. That tally matches their total wins from the 45 league games before relegation.
Arsenal still hold a strong away record in the matchup. They have 15 Premier League wins at Villa Park, which stands as their joint best return at any away ground. Recent history is split, though. Over the last six league games in Birmingham, the sides share three wins each. Villa also took a 2 0 victory at the Emirates in April 2024 and drew 2 2 away after trailing by two, results that damaged Arsenal’s previous title push.
One trend matters for the narrative around this weekend. Since 2019, Villa have played eight league games against teams starting the day top of the table. They have lost six, drawn one and won one. That single win came at home to Arsenal in December 2023. The hosts know they can hit the leaders. The visitors know they have paid for lapses against this opponent before.
### Current form and momentum
Aston Villa’s turnaround this season is stark. After a winless opening run and only one goal across the first five league games, Unai Emery’s side now look like one of the most dangerous outfits in the division.
Recent league form:
* Four straight wins.
* Seven wins from the last eight.
* Points per game over the last eight at 2.63, almost 40 percent higher than their season average.
* Five consecutive home wins, with only two goals conceded across that stretch.
Their attack drives much of that run. Villa have averaged two goals per game over the last eight league matches compared with 1.43 for the season. Analytics from earlier in the campaign show a team that scores from distance often and outperforms expected goals by a wide margin, helped by nine goals from outside the box and the lowest xG per shot in the league at around 0.09. They spread the goals around as well, with nine different scorers and Donyell Malen leading the league tally for them.
Arsenal’s form looks different but equally strong. They have won 10 of their 14 league games and sit undefeated across the last 11 in the competition. Their last four home games all ended in victory and they have scored in every league fixture since August.
Key numbers:
* 2.36 points per league game across the season.
* 2.50 points per game over the last eight matches.
* Six wins from the last eight league games.
* Goals scored in six of seven away matches.
Defence underpins their campaign. Arsenal have conceded only seven league goals, the best record in the division. Across all competitions they have gone 108 games without conceding more than twice, the longest such run by any team in English league history. They sit top of the defence table with eight clean sheets in fourteen league matches.
The away record stays impressive as well. One defeat in the last 21 Premier League away trips, with 11 wins and nine draws. That sole loss came in a 1 0 game at Liverpool in August. When Arsenal score at least once away from home, they do not lose. They are unbeaten in 30 league away matches with a goal scored, winning 21 and drawing nine.
### Tactical preview
#### Villa’s structure and threats
Emery has shaped Villa into a flexible 4 2 3 1 side. The expected lineup from several outlets points toward Marco Bizot in goal, Matty Cash, Ezri Konsa, Pau Torres and Lucas Digne in defence, Boubacar Kamara plus either Youri Tielemans or Amadou Onana as the double pivot, then a band of three in Emiliano Buendia, John McGinn and Morgan Rogers behind Ollie Watkins.
Villa use a high back line at home and try to compress the pitch. Their home scoring rate sits at 71 percent of matches, with an average of 1.57 goals at Villa Park. They also lead first in 57 percent of home games and go in at half time ahead in 43 percent. That pattern points to proactive starts, backed by a crowd that has seen only one home league defeat in the last 25.
The big risk comes earlier in games. Thirty six percent of Villa’s conceded league goals arrive in the first 15 minutes. Their home conceding rate reaches 64 percent of matches, even with a good average of 0.71 goals against. Arsenal have scored first in 57 percent of away games and led at the break in 29 percent. The opening quarter looks decisive.
Watkins demands close attention. He hit two goals in the 4 3 win at Brighton and now has six goals in ten league meetings with Arsenal, more than against almost any other opponent. His movement into the channels, especially toward the left half space, can expose gaps beside the right centre back. Malen and Buendia add direct running and shooting from range. McGinn and Digne give delivery from the left side.
Another threat lies in set pieces and long shots. Villa already have nine league goals from outside the box and remain dangerous from corners and free kicks. Arsenal’s strong record in defensive structure still faces a test against a side that will shoot early and often from distance.
#### Arsenal’s approach
Arsenal’s likely shape stays close to a 4 3 3. Expected lineups suggest David Raya in goal, Ben White or Jurriën Timber at right back, Piero Hincapié with either Timber or William Saliba in central defence, Riccardo Calafiori at left back, then a midfield of Martin Ødegaard, Martín Zubimendi and Mikel Merino. Bukayo Saka, Eberechi Eze and Viktor Gyökeres are the expected front three, though Merino has filled a hybrid forward role recently.
Declan Rice’s calf issue from the Brentford win remains under review. He has stated that he feels fine, yet the staff may lean toward caution with two softer fixtures against Club Brugge and Wolves on the horizon. If Rice sits out, Zubimendi will anchor the midfield and Merino can drop into the left eight. That changes the pressing pattern, with slightly less range in the middle of the pitch but high passing quality.
With or without Rice, Arsenal will look to control territory. Their away scoring rate sits at 86 percent of matches, with an average of 1.29 goals on the road. They fail to score in only 14 percent of away games. In contrast to Villa, they have not yet scored in both halves away from home this league season, but they rarely collapse. They concede 0.71 goals per away match, identical to Villa’s home figure.
The first phase will matter. Arsenal have not conceded a first half goal in 11 of their 14 league matches and lead in the second half performance table. They tend to keep games tight early, then find more control after the interval.
#### The aerial and set piece battle
The crossing trend may shape this tie. Eight of Arsenal’s last thirteen Premier League away goals have come from headers. Six of their nine away league goals this season came in that way. At the same time, four of the last six home league goals conceded by Villa arrived from headers, including the last three in a row.
That statistical clash points toward a clear plan. Arsenal can target the far post with Saka’s inswinging crosses and Calafiori’s delivery, and they can bring centre backs forward for corners. The absence of Gabriel’s set piece presence hurts, yet Hincapié, Timber and Gyökeres still offer aerial power. Villa must manage those situations without Emi Martínez if his back injury keeps him out again.
Corners add another angle. Villa average 5.57 corners for and 5.29 against at home. Arsenal’s away numbers show 6.43 corners for and only 3.57 against. Arsenal often push opponents back and earn a steady stream of dead ball situations. Sustained pressure of that type could tilt the expected low margin game.
### Key players to watch
#### Arsenal
Bukayo Saka
Scored the second goal against Brentford and remains the main outlet on the right. He faces Digne and Rogers on that flank. His ability to attack the space behind an advanced full back can punish Villa’s aggressive shape. Saka also delivers many of the corners and wide free kicks that feed the header trend.
Mikel Merino
Form player for Arsenal in recent weeks. Scored one and assisted one against Brentford. Eight away goals out of thirteen as headers makes his timing and aerial presence essential, wherever he starts. If Rice cannot play, Merino must control the left half space in midfield and join attacks late.
Martin Ødegaard
Returned from a long layoff and instantly raised the level of Arsenal’s possession. His pressing triggers in the right half space help guide the team’s defensive shape. Against a Villa side that builds from the back, his work off the ball may matter as much as his passing.
Piero Hincapié and Riccardo Calafiori
The left side of defence will face Watkins and Cash. Hincapié’s ability to defend wide and step into midfield can cut off counters. Calafiori sits one booking away from suspension, which affects his aggression levels, but his overlapping runs offer a route to create overloads on the left wing.
#### Aston Villa
Ollie Watkins
Six goals in ten league games against Arsenal, fresh from a brace at Brighton, and the focal point of Villa’s attack. He drops into midfield to link play and spins behind defenders. Arsenal’s centre backs must track his movement without leaving space for Malen or Buendia.
Donyell Malen
Former Arsenal youngster in strong scoring form, with five goals in six for Villa in all competitions heading into this match. Cuts inside from the right and carries the ball at pace. Threatens the gap between left back and left centre back.
John McGinn
Sets the tone for Villa’s press and contributes both goals and assists. Arrives late in the box and can shoot from range. His duel with Zubimendi or Rice in the middle could decide which side controls second balls.
Marco Bizot
Likely to continue in goal if Martínez remains out. Villa’s system asks the goalkeeper to deal with a high line and a lot of crosses. Bizot will need a big game against a team that specialise in headed chances and set pieces.
### Injuries, suspensions and likely lineups
Aston Villa absentees:
* Ross Barkley, long term knee problem.
* Tyrone Mings, long term thigh issue.
* Emi Martínez, strong doubt with back injury.
Arsenal absentees:
* Gabriel Magalhães, thigh injury.
* Kai Havertz, knee problem.
* Cristhian Mosquera, ankle issue and unlikely to feature.
Doubts:
* Declan Rice, calf.
* William Saliba, knock.
* Leandro Trossard, muscle problem.
Projected Aston Villa XI:
Bizot; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne; Kamara, Tielemans or Onana; Buendia, McGinn, Rogers; Watkins.
Projected Arsenal XI:
Raya; White, Timber, Hincapié, Calafiori; Zubimendi, Ødegaard, Merino; Saka, Gyökeres, Eze.
### Statistical breakdown
Villa at home (7 matches):
* Goals for per game: 1.57.
* Goals against per game: 0.71.
* Clean sheets: 57 percent.
* Scoring rate: 71 percent of matches.
* Failed to score: 29 percent.
* Leading at half time: 43 percent.
* Scored first: 57 percent.
* Average total goals per home game: 2.29.
Arsenal away (7 matches):
* Goals for per game: 1.29.
* Goals against per game: 0.71.
* Scoring rate: 86 percent.
* Failed to score: 14 percent.
* Clean sheets: 43 percent.
* Scored first: 57 percent.
* Leading at half time: 29 percent.
* Average total goals per away game: 2.00.
Both teams have a goals for plus goals against over 0.5 in every match. For totals over 1.5, the rate sits near 57 percent for both in these splits. The figures point toward a tight game, likely decided by single goal margins, which matches the recent pattern of Villa wins by one goal and Arsenal wins by one or two.
Corner stats, as noted earlier, favour Arsenal slightly in terms of pressure, with more for and fewer against. Early goals conceded by Villa and strong first half control by Arsenal suggest that the first goal carries heavy weight. Arsenal have won all nine league games this season when scoring first. Villa have shown resilience, with a 57 percent equalising rate after falling behind, stronger than the league average.
### Prediction and closing thoughts
This Arsenal vs Aston Villa match preview for an Arsenal news audience points toward a narrow, intense contest. Villa have turned Villa Park into a fortress, with one league defeat in their last 25 home games and eight home wins in a row in all competitions before this weekend. Arsenal carry the best defence in the league, a long unbeaten stretch away from home when they score, and a manager with one of the highest Premier League away win rates on record.
Key factors that may tilt the balance:
1. The aerial battle. Arsenal’s run of headed away goals clashes with Villa’s recent vulnerability to headers at home.
2. Availability of Rice and Saliba. If both start, Arsenal’s defensive platform and midfield control rise sharply.
3. Watkins versus the reshuffled back line. His record against the Gunners and current confidence give Villa a clear route to goal.
4. Game state. Arsenal with the first goal tend to close matches out. Villa chasing the game often create chaos, which suits their long range shooting strength.
Most model based predictions, such as the Opta supercomputer, lean slightly toward an Arsenal win, with the draw and a home win treated as live outcomes. A data led view points to a tight Arsenal victory by a single goal or a score draw. A 2 1 away win or a 1 1 draw both fit the numbers.
For Arsenal, a win at Villa Park would keep the five point cushion at the top at a minimum and send a direct message that this title push has more stability than past attempts. A draw would still represent a solid result against the form side in the division. Defeat would invite Villa into the race and give Manchester City fresh encouragement.
The match sits at the centre of the weekend narrative in the Premier League. For Arsenal, it is another hard examination of a group that has learned how to manage difficult away days with control, resilience and set piece power.