Didn’t manage to compile some thoughts on Villa, what the pundits are saying and also how they play under Unai Emery this season, before the managers did their press conferences. But a lot of what unfolded yesterday with the pressers was kind of pushed to the background when, yesterday afternoon, Sami Mokbel broke the news that Arsenal are likely to be out without Christian Mosquera for between six to eight weeks with the injury he sustained against Brentford.
Of course they are.
Isn’t that just typical of this season, one in which I read somewhere we’ve had 13 injuries in 21 games.
That’s insane.
The jokes about stockpiling players in the summer are now well and truly being rowed back on, because we are getting to the stage where this injury crisis that Arsenal have had will far surpass anything I think any of us have known as Arsenal supporters.
The difference this season is that we have such a deep squad, that even if Saliba isn’t fit enough for today (Arteta was a bit vague on hism coming back, saying it was ‘days’ until he and Leo are back – which was yesterday when he said it so the plural nature would suggest not), we still have quality players who can step up. On Wednesday night for the last part of the game it was Timber at centre half and as one of the lads next to me in Block Five reminded me, he plays centre half for The Netherlands, so he isn’t exactly completely new to this.
That would mean Ben White reprising his role at right back and given he had a man-of-the-match performance against Brentford in midweek, you’d hope he’d be back and ready to contribute well again if asked upon. I suspect Arteta would prefer he didn’t though; not because he isn’t quality or capable, but having not played a lot of football this season, throwing him in to what will be another high intensity game away at in-form Villa isn’t exactly ideal for a gradual re-itegration to first team football.
But I guess we forced Odegaard into a 90 in midweek and he might start again today, so perhaps the same can be said for _Benny Blanco_.
So, how might we line up today given the injuries, Rice of which was also a question mark, if you believe Arteta. In the immediate aftermath of the game in midweek he said he was ‘fine’ and so I don’t know if Arteta was using the possibility of him being injured as a smokescreen to keep the Villa coaching team guessing on what might come up today, or if Arteta really is going to have him benched or completely out of the squad. I read somewhere that he’s travelled, but as we know, that doesn’t really mean anything these days. He could just be there cheering on his teammates.
I hope he is there, like we all do, but I also think if you’ve got a game to think about resting him in, it’s Club Brugge next week. We already have our 15 points, we probably just need one more win from the next three to secure automatic qualification, so if he’s fit enough to play and not carrying anything today, you play him today, you sit him at home in midweek for rest, then you get him on the pitch next weekend against Wolves.
So with that context in mind, I would think/hope we get:
Raya
Timber – Saliba – Hincapie – Calafiori
Zubimendi – Rice
Eze
Saka – Merino – Madueke
My thinking on the attacking end of the pitch is that Odegaard came back and did the full 90 in midweek and you probably want to manage his load coming back from injury, whilst Eze was on the bench, so you can rotate the two and get them to do a job-share for the next week or so. Then I’m thinking that Martinelli wasn’t exactly immense on the left, so Noni needs to be given a go on that side, having provided cover support to rest Saka in midweek. Then, up top, you surely have to just look at Merino given his form. Again, perhaps he can job-share with Gyokeres for this one, maybe giving the Swede 30 minutes, before giving him 60 – 70 minutes against Brugge on Wednesday. Merino has forced his way into the manager’s thinking and that is great and if he can do the business again today, then we’ll go a long way to winning this football match.
But to win this match we’re going to have to do something a lot of teams haven’t and nobody has since Palace did towards the beginning of the season by winning at Villa Park. We’re an in-form team, but we are second in the form table to Aston Villa, who have won all of their last six games going back to the defeat to Liverpool at the beginning of November. So there will be a swagger of confidence about them today. The hope from an Arsenal perspective is that it will mean they play a more open and expansive game, because that means we will get chances and if we do, we have to take them.
What’s weird about Villa from a numbers point of view is that their home xG is actually pretty bad, given how well they are doing in the league, with them 13th out of 20 in the league for xG produced at home at 6.9. But I guess you could say they are producing the goods because from nearly seven goals they’ve got 11 at home. Their opponents both home and away have created 18.5xG this season and that puts them 11th in the table. So pretty average for a team flying high at the top. Where they do perform like a team towards the top of the table is:
* Shots conceded – they’re fifth behind us, City, Palace and Chelsea
* Post shot expected goals – they’re third behind us and Chelsea
That’s pretty much it. They have the most passes in their own penalty area of anyone in the league, which doesn’t really tell me much other than classic Unai Emery playing the ball out from the back, with a lot of their underlying metrics looking pretty average overall. Which is why I don’t think you can underestimate the value of confidence and momentum and it feels like Villa will once again ride the way of it against us for this early kick off.
Arsenal need to quieten the crowd down pretty quickly, in that sense and although I personally hate those 12.30pm kick offs, if we can start well then maybe it takes the home crowd a little while to get going and by the time it is we have done our work.
That’s the hope, although if they start quickly and give us something to worry about early it could feel like a long afternoon.
This is a tough game, we all know that, but a win here would be massive for the season. It would mean we remain five clear at least by the end of the weekend, having already struck first as City play Sunderland at home this weekend, whilst we would then also have Wolves at home next weekend so another great opportunity to try to rack up some more points.
Come on Arsenal – do the business.
Catch you all tomorrow for some post match thoughts.