Aston Villa have been given a genuine chance to win the title after Unai Emery's side took victory over Arsenal at Villa Park on Saturday
Aston Villa manager Unai Emery
Aston Villa have won seven consecutive games in all competitions(Image: Offside via Getty Images)
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A supercomputer has predicted Aston Villa's chance of winning the Premier League title this season after they beat league leaders Arsenal on Saturday.
Mikel Arteta's side had looked to be running away with the league only a few weeks ago. They had one of the strongest defences in Europe, superb squad depth and a comfortable six-point gap.
However, the Gunners have now won just two of their last five Premier League matches, with Villa handing Arsenal their second defeat of the season after a dramatic late winner from Emi Buendia.
Arsenal's gap at the top has suddenly been cut to two points over the weekend from Manchester City in second, with Unai Emery's side only three points behind in third. With questions now being asked regarding Villa's title chances, Opta Analyst have predicted how the table will look come the end of the season.
Villa are predicted to finish in third with 68 points. The crucial detail here is that the Claret and Blue are projected to finish closer to Manchester City in second, on 72 points, than to Chelsea in fourth, who have been given 62.
Mikel Arteta and Unai Emery stand next to each other
Arteta's Arsenal were on the receiving end of a 2-1 loss to Aston Villa
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But what is even more significant is that Opta Analyst have given Villa a 5.86% chance of winning the Premier League title. This is higher than current champions Liverpool and Chelsea, with both hovering around the 1% mark.
Looking up, despite Arsenal’s tough weekend, they still have a 72.16% chance of lifting the title, with Pep Guardiola’s City at 18.82%.
However, the predicted table is a very different story from the expected table. Opta have explained how they create their expected table, stating: “Our expected points model simulates the number of goals scored by each side in each match based on the expected goals (xG) value of every shot taken.
“It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome (win/draw/loss). Each match is simulated 10,000 times. The expected points for each team in each match can then be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose.”
So, using all the simulations and expected goals data, Villa were expected to sit 16th with 16 points. You read that right. In the simulated table, this would place them one point outside the relegation zone, with Wolves below them.
Fortunately for Emery’s side, simulated tables only take you so far. After their poor run of form early in the season, Villa now find themselves three points off the lead and are beginning to be considered genuine title rivals.
Are Villa title contenders? Have your say here
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