What will happen when Pep Guardiola and Xabi Alonso go head-to-head as managers for the first time? We look ahead to Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League clash at the Santiago Bernabéu with our Real Madrid vs Man City prediction and preview.
Real Madrid vs Man City: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer makes Real Madrid the slight favourites, with a 41.8% win probability to Manchester City’s 34.2%.
This will be the 15th time that Madrid and Man City have faced each other in the UEFA Champions League.
Pep Guardiola is taking on Xabi Alonso, who he coached as a player at Bayern Munich, for the first time as a manager.
Real Madrid vs Manchester City has become something of a UEFA Champions League staple.
Wednesday’s meeting at the Santiago Bernabéu will mark the 15th time these teams have faced each other in the competition. Since their first encounter, in 2012-23, it is the most-played fixture in the Champions League.
But this will mark the first managerial meeting between Man City’s Pep Guardiola and Los Blancos boss Xabi Alonso.
Guardiola coached Alonso during the latter’s playing days, with the midfielder a key fulcrum in Guardiola’s Bayern Munich team between 2014 and 2016.
Alonso made 79 appearances under Guardiola (W58 D12 L9), and while he is far from a Pep clone, he has certainly taken some inspiration from his former boss, and it makes for an intriguing sub-plot to a rivalry that has already served up some Champions League classics in recent seasons.
Man City head to the Spanish capital buoyed by the fact they have closed the gap to Arsenal at the top of the Premier League to just two points, following their 3-0 win over Sunderland on Saturday.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, were beaten 2-0 at home by Celta Vigo on Sunday, going down to nine men after losing their discipline in the second half. It was a defeat that invited more scrutiny on Alonso, who is not having an easy time of it in the media spotlight in Spain, and left them four points off the pace in La Liga.
City sit ninth in the 36-team Champions League standings, two points behind fifth-placed Madrid. Both teams have lost once, but Los Blancos have four wins compared to City’s three in this season’s competition, and could really cement their place in the top eight with victory here.
Opta’s supercomputer is confident both of these teams will reach the last 16, with Madrid given a 94% chance of doing so and City a 91% probability of getting there.
Madrid go into this contest on the third-longest streak of scoring in consecutive home games in European Cup/Champions League history (38 games), behind a 44-game run by Los Blancos themselves (September 2011-October 2018) and one of 45 games by Juventus (April 1973-September 2000).
The last visiting side to keep a clean sheet away at Real Madrid in this competition was CSKA Moscow in December 2018 (0-0 draw).
Since November 2024, however, City have lost six of their 12 games played in the Champions League (W4 D2). Prior to this run of 12, their previous six defeats in the competition came over the course of 69 matches, between October 2018 and October 2024 (W49 D14).
This clash also sees two of Europe’s best forwards go head-to-head.
Kylian Mbappé has scored nine goals in five games in the Champions League this season; the joint-most by a Madrid player in their first five appearances in a single edition, along with Cristiano Ronaldo in 2013-14 (nine).
Madrid open-play sequences
The France star, who netted all four of Madrid’s goals in their 4-3 win at Olympiakos on Matchday 5, also has a fantastic record against City.
He has been directly involved in eight goals in seven games against them in the Champions League (seven goals, one assist); only Lionel Messi has had a hand in more against the Citizens in the competition (nine in eight appearances – seven goals, two assists).
Mbappé’s haul against City includes four goals across two legs in last season’s play-off round, with the superstar striker scoring in a dramatic 3-2 victory at the Etihad Stadium before netting a hat-trick in a 3-1 Madrid victory at the Bernabéu.
City have had their troubles defensively this season, conceding 22 goals from 20.6 expected goals against (xGA), so keeping Mbappé quiet will be no easy feat.
Indeed, given Mbappé is the second-highest scorer in Europe this term, then perhaps the best form of defence for City, is offence.
And in Erling Haaland, they of course have a goal machine of their own.
Haaland xG
Haaland has plundered 20 goals in all competitions this season for City. Among players from Europe’s top five leagues, only Mbappé (25) and Harry Kane (28) have netted more in 2025-26, while only Kane (21) has scored more non-penalty goals than Haaland’s 20.
The Norway international has scored more goals in the Champions League than any other player since his debut campaign in 2019-20 (54).
In fact, two of the only three players who have netted 50+ goals in the competition in this period could both square off in this match, with Mbappé also netting 50 times since then (Robert Lewandowski being the other).
Haaland has scored twice in five appearances against Madrid across his career.
And he should be licking his lips, as Madrid certainly give up chances. They were well beaten by Liverpool at Anfield, even if the Reds only scored once, while Olympiakos managed 18 shots against them two weeks ago.
Looking to back up Haaland will be the in-form Phil Foden, who scored again in City’s win over Sunderland, making it four Premier League goals in the space of a week.
Foden has had a hand in nine goals in seven starts for City across all competitions since the start of November (seven goals, two assists), more than any other Premier League player during this period.
The England international has scored in three consecutive appearances for the Citizens for the first time since November 2023, so it is definitely not just a case of stopping Haaland to stop City.
Real Madrid vs Man City Head-to-Head
Man City have lost their last two games against Real Madrid, suffering defeats home and away against them in last season’s play-off round.
This is as many losses as they had experienced in their previous 11 games against the Spanish side combined (W4 D5 L2).
Madrid 3-1 City xG
Former Barcelona boss Guardiola, meanwhile, has faced Real Madrid on 27 previous occasions, winning 48% of those matches (W13 D7 L7). However, he is winless in the most recent four against the Spanish giants (D2 L2), and has never gone five in succession without beating them.
After only losing one of his first nine away games against Madrid as a manager (W6 D2), Guardiola is winless in his last four trips to face Los Blancos (D2 L2), while conceding 10 goals across those four matches (2.5 per game).
Real Madrid vs Man City Prediction
The Opta supercomputer has run 10,000 data-led simulations, and Real Madrid were the victors in 41.8% of them.
Manchester City, meanwhile, claimed the three points in 34.2% of the sims.
That means there is a 24.0% chance of a draw, and it feels likely that this one is going to be tight.
Real Madrid v Man City Opta match prediction 2025-26
Real Madrid vs Man City Predicted Lineups
Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois, Federico Valverde, Raúl Asencio, Antonio Rüdiger, Álvaro Carreras, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga, Jude Bellingham, Arda Güler, Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé.
Head Coach: Xabi Alonso
Man City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Abdukodir Khusanov, John Stones, Nathan Aké, Rayan Aït-Nouri, Nico González, Rico Lewis, Tijjani Reijnders, Oscar Bobb, Jérémy Doku, Erling Haaland.
Head Coach: Pep Guardiola
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday night in Germany, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
UEFA Champions League Stats Opta
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