CLEVELAND, Ohio — When the Cavs began this season, many analysts believed they had a relatively clear path to the Eastern Conference finals. Twenty-five games later, that narrative has completely changed, not just because of the Cavaliers’ underperformance but because the Eastern Conference landscape has dramatically evolved.
On the latest Wine and Gold Talk podcast, cleveland.com columnist Jimmy Watkins painted a starkly different picture of the conference than what was expected before the season began.
“We came into this season thinking, they’re going to cakewalk into the conference finals. Who’s going to challenge them outside of New York? That is no longer the case,” Watkins told host Ethan Sands, highlighting how quickly the competitive landscape has shifted.
The emergence of the Detroit Pistons as a legitimate force has been one of the biggest surprises. Currently sitting at the top of the Eastern Conference, the Pistons have established themselves through physicality, defense and an identity that the Cavaliers seem to be still searching for.
“They’re fricking mean, they’re fricking physical. They play really good defense,” Watkins observed about the Pistons. “Jalen Duren is a big problem. He might be an All-Star. He’s so strong. That’s a guy who I could see giving the Cavs problems down low.”
Beyond Detroit, the Boston Celtics have defied expectations by remaining highly competitive despite injuries to key players.
As Watkins noted, “They’re finding like they’re looking like over the last month or so, like kind of an elite team.”
Add in the improved Orlando Magic with Desmond Bane finding his shooting touch, and the Toronto Raptors with their length and defensive pressure, and suddenly the Eastern Conference looks like a gauntlet rather than a cakewalk.
This shift has serious implications for the Cavaliers’ playoff path.
Watkins has dramatically revised his expectations for what it will take for Cleveland to advance deep into the postseason: “I used to think that the Cavs could correct essentially nothing about their playoff loss and still win two rounds in the playoffs. I now feel like the Cavs have to make a jump from where they were to potentially even win two rounds in the playoffs, depending on how the matchups break down.”
The Cavaliers’ current position as the seventh seed only compounds these challenges.
If they don’t improve their standing, they might face more difficult matchups earlier in the playoffs than anticipated.
“You’re opening Pandora’s box here by taking a nonchalant approach to the regular season,” Watkins said. “You might have to play the Knicks in the second round. You might have to play the Pistons. These teams that we’re talking about potentially as conference finals problems. What if they become second round problems?”
This precarious position is largely self-inflicted.
While injuries and a difficult schedule have played a role, the Cavaliers’ approach to the regular season has been their biggest obstacle. Unlike established championship teams that can afford to coast through portions of the regular season, the Cavaliers don’t have that luxury.
“The regular season doesn’t matter for teams like the Thunder, who ironically are murdering the regular season,” Watkins explained. “It didn’t really matter to the LeBron Cavs teams who knew they could figure this stuff out. It does matter to \[this version of the Cavs\]. It does because you need the seeding.”
For the Cavaliers, playoff positioning isn’t just about home-court advantage – it’s about avoiding potentially devastating early-round matchups against physical teams that could expose their weaknesses.
As the team prepares to return from their five-day break, the urgency to climb the standings has never been greater. The Eastern Conference has evolved, and if the Cavaliers want to realize their conference finals aspirations, they need to evolve with it.
To hear Jimmy Watkins’ complete breakdown of the Eastern Conference landscape and what it means for the Cavaliers’ playoff hopes, check out the full episode of Wine and Gold Talk podcast with host Ethan Sands.
Here’s the podcast for this week: