We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at the Emirates Stadium with our Arsenal vs Wolves prediction and preview* ***, with the Gunners’ lead at the top having been cut to just two points heading into MD16.**
Arsenal vs Wolves: The Key Stats
Unsurprisingly, the Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal the overwhelming favourites, handing the Premier League leaders an 85.4% win probability vs Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Arsenal have scored in each of their last 35 meetings with Wolves in all competitions, not failing to score a goal against them since a 1-0 home loss in February 1979.
Bottom-placed Wolves have won just one of their last 14 away league games against Arsenal.
Not too long ago, Arsenal had built up a healthy lead at the top of the Premier League. Now, however, the pressure is somewhat on Mikel Arteta’s side ahead of Saturday’s clash with lowly, and winless, Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Arsenal go into Matchday 16 with a lead of just two points over second-place Manchester City, while Aston Villa, in third, are only three behind.
Premier League 2025-26 Table Before MD16
It was Villa who beat the Gunners in the dying embers last Saturday, with Man City capitalising by beating Sunderland 3-0 to close the gap.
While it can hardly be described as a crisis, it just goes to show that a couple of wobbles can open everything up, and Arsenal will be keen to get back on track on Saturday, especially given both City and Villa play on Sunday.
The fixture list has been kind to the Gunners, with Wolves the next visitors to the Emirates Stadium.
Rob Edwards’ appointment has not yet had the desired effect of seeing Wolves claim their first league win of the season; in fact, they have lost all four of his games in charge since he took over last month.
Wolves sit eight points behind 19th-place Burnley and some 13 points adrift of safety. The Opta supercomputer hands them a 99.2% chance of going down. They were beaten 4-1 at home by Manchester United on Monday, allowing their opponents 27 shots in the process.
Arsenal, meanwhile, win the title in 72.2% of the model’s data-led simulations, so it really would take an almighty shock for the Gunners to throw away points here.
Only QPR in 2012-13 (16) and Sheffield United in 2020-21 (17) have had longer winless runs from the start of a Premier League campaign than this Wolves team. Meanwhile, their two points is a joint-low after 15 games in top-flight history, level with the Blades from 2020-21.
Stretching back to last season, Wolves are winless in 19 Premier League games and have lost their last eight in a row. Both runs are their joint-longest in their league history, also going 19 without a win between December 1984 and April 1985, and losing eight in a row between December 1981 and February 1982.
Arsenal, on the other hand, are looking to win five consecutive home Premier League matches for the first time since between January and April 2024.
Mikel Arteta’s side have also won their last seven at the Emirates against teams starting the day in the bottom three of the Premier League, since drawing 3-3 with Southampton in April 2023.
So, is there any hope for Wolves?
Well, according to Opta’s expected points model, Wolves should actually be on 15 points right now, and sitting in 18th place. While they have scored just eight goals in reality, that is from 13.2 expected goals (xG). They have shipped 33 goals, despite conceding chances worth only 23.5 xG against.
Premier League expected points
But those underlying metrics will come as little solace to Wolves fans at this stage, especially given Arsenal are outperforming their 26.2 xG, albeit not by much (28 goals scored).
And as clinical as Arsenal’s attack has been, it is their defence that has been the bedrock of their title challenge.
However, even though they still have the best defence in the Premier League this season with nine goals conceded, Arsenal have shipped six goals in their last five league games, double the number they did in their first 10 this term.
The absences of Gabriel Magalhães and William Saliba have certainly been felt in that regard, while an injury to Cristhian Mosquera has not helped either.
Arsenal xGA
So, there could be some light for Wolves if they can exploit that weakened backline. However, Arsenal have plenty of weaponry at their disposal. Chief among them, of course, are set-pieces.
Twelve of Arsenal’s first 17 Premier League goals this season had come from set-piece situations (eight corners, two penalties, two free-kicks).
However, since Viktor Gyökeres’ header at Burnley in November, the Gunners’ last 11 league goals have all come from open play, so it is not just defending set-pieces that Wolves have to worry about.
Declan Rice is expected to be fit to make the matchday squad despite missing out in the UEFA Champions League in midweek due to illness, though Arteta is dealing with a mini injury crisis. However, if Arsenal are to be champions, Wolves are a team they should be putting away in a comfortable fashion.
Arsenal bounced back with a 3-0 defeat of Club Brugge in the UCL on Wednesday, and a Wolves nemesis, in the form of Noni Madueke, played a key role.
Madueke scored twice in Belgium, becoming the first player in Arsenal’s history to net each of his first three goals for the club in the European Cup/Champions League.
He has scored four goals in his two Premier League starts against Wolves, including a hat-trick for Chelsea at Molineux last season.
This will be the 42nd Premier League match between the top side and the bottom side, with the league leaders winning 30 of the previous 41 (D7 L4).
Wolves, though, are responsible for two of the bottom side’s four victories, beating Manchester United at Molineux in both January 2004 and February 2011.
Arsenal vs Wolves Head-to-Head
Arsenal have scored in each of their last 35 meetings with Wolves in all competitions, since a 1-0 home loss in February 1979.
In English football history, only Wrexham against Darlington have had a longer scoring streak across all competitions (49 between 1929 and 1961).
Wolves have won just one of their last 14 away league games against Arsenal (D4 L9), losing the last four in a row since a 2-1 victory in November 2020.
Arsenal have won their last eight Premier League games against Wolves, their longest winning run against an opponent since a run of 10 against Burnley from 2010 to 2019.
Arsenal vs Wolves Prediction
It is no shock that Arsenal are the big favourites, with our model handing them a win probability of 85.4%.
Wolves’ chances of victory are ranked at a tiny 5.3%, while the threat of a draw is 9.3%.
Arsenal vs Wolves Prediction Opta
Arsenal vs Wolves Predicted Lineups
Arsenal: David Raya, Ben White, Jurriën Timber, Piero Hincapié, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Martin Ødegaard, Martín Zubimendi, Eberechi Eze, Gabriel Martinelli, Bukayo Saka, Mikel Merino.
Head coach: Mikel Arteta
Wolves: Sam Johnstone, Yerson Mosquera, Emmanuel Agbadou, Toti Gomes, Jackson Tchatchoua, André, João Gomes, David Møller Wolfe, Jhon Arias, Fer López, Jørgen Strand Larsen.
Head coach: Rob Edwards
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Saturday night in north London, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Premier League Stats Opta
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