theanalyst.com

Chelsea vs Everton Prediction: Maresca’s Men Seek a Change in Fortune on MD16

Chelsea are on a run of four matches in all competitions without a win, and Everton’s away form has been strong. We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League meeting between the pair at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea vs Everton: The Key Stats

Chelsea have a 56.8% probability of beating Everton this weekend, according to the Opta supercomputer.

Everton have won four of their last five Premier League matches, keeping a clean sheet each time. Since David Moyes’ return in January, only Manchester City (13), Arsenal (13) and Chelsea (11) have more top-flight victories without conceding than the Toffees (10).

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has scored three goals in his last four games for Everton, which is as many as he scored in his prior 62 combined for Leicester, Chelsea and the Toffees.

Chelsea will be keen to arrest their slump in form and avoid falling behind Everton in the Premier League when the teams meet at Stamford Bridge on Saturday.

Enzo Maresca’s side, who surrendered the lead in a 2-1 UEFA Champions League defeat at Atalanta on Tuesday, are on a run of three Premier League matches without a win, which has seen them slip to fifth in the table – one point clear of seventh-placed Everton.

Chelsea vs Everton Premier League Table 2025-26

Although Chelsea secured a hard-fought draw following Moisés Caicedo’s straight red card against leaders Arsenal – for which he is still serving a three-game ban – they followed it up with a loss to Leeds United and a goalless draw at Bournemouth.

Chelsea struggled around this time of year last season, too. Their only longer winless run under Maresca came in five games across December 2024 and January 2025.

The Italian head coach has been proactive in his approach to the Blues’ change in fortunes. He has made at least four changes to his lineup in each of the previous four games, taking his total to 46 alterations to his starting XI – 11 more than at this stage of last season.

If Chelsea are to turn things around, they will need to correct a concerning trend. They have dropped more points from winning positions in Premier League home games than any other team this season (8).

Everton’s recent away form suggests they will provide the west London outfit with another tricky test, too.

Having recovered from Idrissa Gueye’s red card for striking team-mate Michael Keane to secure a 1-0 win against Manchester United at Old Trafford, Moyes’ side triumphed on the road for a second successive match by beating Bournemouth by the same scoreline. The last time they were victorious in more consecutive Premier League away games was a run of four from October to December in 2023.

Should Everton manage to snatch a win at Stamford Bridge and keep a clean sheet, it would be the first time they have won three away games on the trot without conceding since December 2008.

Former Chelsea midfielder Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall heads into this clash in strong form. The 27-year-old has scored three goals in his last four games for Everton, which is as many as he scored in his prior 62 combined for Leicester City, Chelsea and the Toffees.

Gueye is available after serving his three-match ban, as is Tim Iroegbunam after missing out against Nottingham Forest for an accumulation of yellow cards. Thierno Barry will likely lead the line after breaking his duck with his first Everton goal in his 15th appearance last time out.

Thierno Barry Stats 2025-26 Premier League

Chelsea are without Liam Delap due to a shoulder injury, but Trevoh Chalobah, Wesley Fofana and Enzo Fernández are expected to feature despite going off early against Atalanta last time out. Fofana injured his eye after taking a boot to the face, but Maresca expects him to be available.

Chelsea vs Everton Head-to-Head

Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 30 Premier League home games against Everton, winning 17 – it’s the longest unbeaten home run against an opponent in their league history.

The two most recent meetings at Stamford Bridge have both gone the way of the Blues – a 6-0 success in April 2024 and a 1-0 victory in April earlier this year thanks to a first-half Nicolas Jackson strike.

Chelsea 1-0 Everton Stats 2024-25

Moyes is winless in all 20 of his Premier League away games against Chelsea (D7 L13) – he has only faced Liverpool on the road more often without a win (21).

However, the Scotsman previously ended Everton’s longest winless away run against an opponent in their league, securing a 1-0 victory over Leeds at Elland Road in November 2002 to end a 36-match streak that stretched back to 1953.

The Toffees have historically endured a difficult time in front of goal against Chelsea. Should Everton fail to find the net here, Chelsea would join Manchester United and Liverpool as the teams they have drawn the most blanks against (28) in the Premier League.

Chelsea vs Everton Prediction

Chelsea took something from the game in almost 80% of the pre-match simulations completed by the Opta supercomputer.

Maresca’s men were victorious in 56.8% of the projections and drew 22.4% of them, leaving Everton with just a 20.8% chance of coming out on top in west London on Saturday afternoon.

Chelsea vs Everton Prediction Opta

Chelsea vs Everton Predicted Lineups

Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Malo Gusto, Wesley Fofana, Trevoh Chalobah, Marc Cucurella, Reece James, Enzo Fernández, Pedro Neto, Cole Palmer, Alejandro Garnacho, João Pedro.

Head coach: Enzo Maresca

Everton: Jordan Pickford, Jake O’Brien, Michael Keane, James Tarkowski, Vitalii Mykolenko, James Garner, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Iliman Ndiaye, Charly Alcaraz, Jack Grealish, Thierno Barry.

Head coach: David Moyes

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Premier League Stats Opta

Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over onX, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.******

Read full news in source page