Toronto is sadly dipping in the Eastern Conference ranks.
In the last Fulcrum, the Raptors had dropped two straight, but were still 9-2 over their previous 11 games. I cautioned fans not to panic. Since then, Toronto has gone 1-4 and beenoutscored by 49 points. I would still caution against rooting for drastic changes, but it’s clear the nine-game winning streak is firmly in the rearview. What went wrong over the past five games?
Toronto has a gaping hole at center
When the Raptors acquired Jakob Poeltl at the 2023 NBA trade deadline, he was critical to the team’s success. Since that trade, Poeltl has been instrumental in helping Toronto match opponents’ physicality and rebounding.
This year has been a different story. Toronto has a0.0 net rating with Poeltl on the floor, down from the team’s overall net rating of +1.9 (meaning the Raptors outscore opponents by 1.9 points per 100 possessions on average). That’s not disastrous, but it’s certainly not ideal. His averages of 10.2 points and 8.0 rebounds per game are also hislowest since returning to Toronto.
Beyond the numbers, Poeltl simply looks like a different player. He was never an athletic rim-runner, but this season he appears noticeably slower when he’s forced to defend in space. The obvious cause is his nagging back injury, which has already cost him seven games. However, any time a center on the wrong side of 30 starts dealing with recurring injuries, concern is justified.
Toronto should start exploring trade-market options for a more athletic backup who can fill minutes when Poeltl is hurt or not performing.
Toronto’s offense needs RJ Barrett
Last Fulcrum, I highlighted how Toronto was struggling to find balance and generate easy buckets without Barrett. Those issues haven’t improved, and it’s time to be seriously concerned about when he’ll be healthy enough to return to the lineup.
Since Barrett left the lineup, Barnes, Quickley, and Ingram are the only Raptors averaging more thannine points per game. The team is shooting just 45.1% from the field and ranks 29th in offensive efficiency at107.1 points per 100 possessions.
Barrett’s return won’t fix everything, but the sample size is now large enough to say confidently: Toronto badly needs his offensive creation and fastbreak scoring.
Will the much-needed break work wonders?
Toronto will have a long layoff to their benefit before they suit up again to face the Heat on December 15th.
Ideally, the time off helps Barrett return strong and gives the rest of the lineup a chance to recover after this tough stretch. They’ll need it — the Raptors play eight games in 14 days to close out December. Most of those matchups come against tough competition, including five total games against the Magic, Heat, Bucks, and Celtics — all teams Toronto is battling for playoff positioning.
Every team faces stretches of poor play and injuries. The real test is how they respond. Let’s hope Darko Rajaković can get this young team back on track.