Aston Villa have won 15 of their last 17 matches, but remain under the 'expected goals' microscope for some observers
Morgan Rogers scored another stunner last weekend
Morgan Rogers scored another stunner last weekend
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'Expected goals' has become a term used to question the validity of Aston Villa’s recent results, despite the club sustaining some of the best form any team has produced in European football over the past three months.
So what, exactly, is everyone talking about - and why are some trying to downplay Villa’s success over the last 17 matches?
Expected goals (xG) is a metric used to assess how likely a player is to score a given chance and, in turn, how many goals a team is expected to score in a match. The model assigns a probability - between zero and one - based on historical data from nearly one million shots.
Factors influencing an xG value include distance, angle, goalkeeper position, shot type, the previous action, and the pattern of play. In simple terms, the higher the xG, the more likely a goal should be scored from that chance. And herein lies the first issue.
When Morgan Rogers - who has already scored twice from distance this season using a specific technique against Tottenham and Leeds - struck the ball in the 79th minute at West Ham, the xG of that chance was calculated at just 0.02.
That suggests Rogers would only score from that position twice in 100 attempts. That’s ludicrous.
Perhaps a centre-back with a couple of career goals across 15 years might only score a handful of times from there - but not Rogers. Context matters, and xG often fails to account for individual skill sets and repeatable shooting techniques.
Scoring from distance isn’t new, although it has arguably been discouraged in the English game following Pep Guardiola’s influence. That said, Villa were never going to score a winning goal from outside the box every week - and nor would they plan to.
After Boubacar Kamara struck a winner from outside the box against Wolves to secure a 1-0 victory at Villa Park, Unai Emery’s side followed it up by scoring four goals - all from inside the box - away at Brighton. They did so after going two goals behind.
Villa then beat Arsenal just days later, generating the highest xG Arsenal have faced all season. This is a side that has conceded just 10 league goals and only once in the Champions League, yet faced an xG of 2.16 at Villa Park.
Against Brighton, Villa registered an xG of 2.41 - their highest of the campaign. Across those two matches, Villa created 11 big chances and scored six goals. While Arsenal’s defensive record is well documented, Brighton had kept three clean sheets in their previous four games, conceding only from a penalty against Brentford.
Villa’s start to the season was poor - but their performances were worse than their results. Draws away at Everton and Sunderland don’t look disastrous on paper, although the latter was particularly frustrating as Villa failed to hold a lead against 10 men.
In the opening five league matches, Villa struggled to create chances, let alone score goals. That changed at the sixth attempt, when they beat Fulham at home, scoring three times.
According to Understat, Villa have posted the sixth-highest xG total over the last five matchweeks - a significant improvement on the opening five games. Narrow that to the last four matches, and only three teams have recorded a higher xG.
Granted, Villa’s underlying numbers aren’t as impressive as some of their rivals - but every football fan would rather their team sit high in the table that actually matters.
Talk of a title race is premature, and few supporters genuinely expect Emery’s side to still be there come May. The 'told you so' brigade will undoubtedly emerge if Villa fall away, but even competing for Champions League qualification would represent a major success.
Unable to properly spend in the summer while balancing a Europa League campaign, almost every Villa fan would have snapped your hand off for Champions League football at the start of the season.
Instead of applauding how Villa have made a mockery of those predicting a relegation battle after their poor start, xG has become the reason we’re told to temper our excitement when Rogers delivers another goal-of-the-season contender. Apparently, those goals shouldn’t really count.
Take Sunderland. They’re riding high in the league after an exceptional start, sitting just two points behind second-placed Chelsea - a side that has spent billions and should realistically be in a title race.
Yet Sunderland’s low xG numbers have attracted far less criticism. According to xG-based 'expected points', they should be level with Wolves. Villa, meanwhile, are supposedly just two points better than one of the worst Premier League sides ever at this stage of a season.
Some data providers even claim Sunderland have produced the lowest xG in the league, with Villa grouped alongside West Ham, Fulham, and Tottenham.
Villa have won 15 of their last 17 matches - nine in a row overall and six consecutively in the league, both club records. A drop-off will come at some stage, simply because no team sustains that level indefinitely.
But with 10 more league wins this season, Villa would reach 63 points - enough to put them in a tremendous position for a top-four or top-five finish and likely Champions League qualification, considering points gained from draws too.
However they achieve it - whether by outperforming or underperforming their xG - it would be a remarkable accomplishment to return to UEFA's elite club competition, and that's before talking about competing for Europa League glory.
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