Chelsea can use Saturday’s early kick-off to put pressure on their rivals at the top of the Premier League. We take a look at their meeting with Newcastle United in our preview and prediction.
Newcastle vs Chelsea: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer makes Newcastle United the favourites, with a win probability of 42%. Chelsea cannot be counted out, though, as they have a 31.4% chance of success according to our pre-match simulations.
Chelsea have kept four clean sheets in their last five away Premier League matches. They had only kept five clean sheets in their 38 away games beforehand.
Anthony Gordon and Bruno Guimarães have both scored in each of Newcastle’s last two Premier League home games. The last time the same two Newcastle players scored in three straight top-flight matches at St James’ Park was Lomana Lua-Lua and Alan Shearer between April and August 2002.
Chelsea will be looking to put the pressure on their rivals at the top of the Premier League table when they take on Newcastle United at St James’ Park on Saturday.
A victory in the early kick-off would put fourth-placed Chelsea just five points shy of leaders Arsenal, who face Everton later on Saturday, and two points behind Aston Villa in third.
Premier League Table 2025-26 Before MD17
The Blues ended a four-game winless run in all competitions with a 2-0 win at home to Everton last weekend. They followed that up by securing an EFL Cup semi-final against Arsenal or Crystal Palace with a 3-1 victory over Cardiff City on Tuesday.
Alejandro Garnacho‘s double was punctuated by a crucial goal from Pedro Neto, who restored Chelsea’s advantage in the 82nd minute in south Wales. The Portugal international has been impressive this season, with his five Premier League strikes – four of which have come away from home – equalling his career best.
Victory over Cardiff was important for the Blues given the turbulence that ensued after head coach Enzo Maresca claimed the 48 hours prior to beating Everton were the worst days since he joined the club because of a lack of support for him and the team.
Maresca refused to clarify who his comments were aimed at, but insisted after beating Cardiff that he was happy and “falling more in love” with his players.
Their impressive defensive displays may be a contributing factor. No side has kept more clean sheets in the Premier League than Chelsea this season (eight, level with Arsenal). Five of those shutouts have come in their past seven league games, too.
Newcastle, meanwhile, have conceded in each of their last nine Premier League outings. They have never gone 10 in a row without a clean sheet under Eddie Howe.
Their defensive concerns have been further exacerbated by Tino Livramento limping off with an apparent knee issue in their 2-1 EFL Cup quarter-final success against Fulham on Wednesday. That came a day after Howe confirmed Dan Burn would be out for up to six weeks with rib and lung injuries sustained in the disappointing Wear-Tyne derby defeat at Sunderland last weekend.
Nick Woltemade‘s own goal consigned the Magpies to a 1-0 loss and kept them 12th in the table. The two teams mustered just 11 shots with a combined expected goals value of 0.54 – both record lows in the Premier League this season.
Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle Stats Premier League 2025-26
Newcastle do fare a little better in front of their own fans, though. They have scored twice in each of their last five top-flight home matches and are averaging two goals per game at St James’ Park under Howe – a goals-per-game ratio that only Kevin Keegan can claim to better for the club (2.16).
While Kieran Trippier and Emil Krafth are not expected to return until the new year, Jamaal Lascelles and Nick Pope could be available for Newcastle. Lewis Miley may be forced to start at right-back again due to Livramento’s injury.
Chelsea welcome back Moisés Caicedo from a three-game suspension, but they will be without Estêvão due to a muscular injury. Liam Delap also remains sidelined with a shoulder problem.
Newcastle vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
Newcastle have won each of their past three Premier League meetings with Chelsea at St James’ Park – their best run against them since a four-match winning streak between 1994 and 1998.
Howe’s men secured a 2-0 home triumph in the most recent encounter, but not since February 1933 have Chelsea failed to score in successive league games against Newcastle.
Newcastle 2-0 Chelsea stats 2024-25
Home wins are a common theme when these teams go up against one another. The home side has won 37 of their 60 Premier League meetings, which is the most home wins of any fixture in the competition’s history.
Newcastle vs Chelsea Prediction
The Opta supercomputer‘s calculations suggest yet another home win in this fixture, with Newcastle coming out on top in 42% of our pre-match simulations.
Chelsea were victorious in 31.4% of the projections, with 26.6% of them ending in a draw.
Newcastle vs Chelsea Prediction December 2025
Newcastle vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Newcastle United: Aaron Ramsdale, Lewis Miley, Malick Thiaw, Fabian Schär, Lewis Hall, Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali, Joelinton, Anthony Elanga, Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade.
Head coach: Eddie Howe
Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Malo Gusto, Trevoh Chalobah, Benoît Badiashile, Marc Cucurella, Enzo Fernández, Moisés Caicedo, Estêvão, Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto, João Pedro.
Head coach: Enzo Maresca
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend at St James’ Park, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Premier League Stats Opta
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