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Another season, another search for the right combinations for Steve Kerr. He’s the Marco Polo of rotations.
The Warriors have used 15 distinct starting lineups through 27 games, and haven’t kept the same starters for consecutive games since Nov. 18.
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That’s about to change. After Tuesday’s practice, Kerr committed to the starting five from Sunday’s loss in Portland: Steph Curry, Moses Moody, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, and Quinten Post.
“I’d like to keep doing that, to really build some continuity with the starting lineup and also the rotation off the bench.”
Kerr would “love” for that group to be Golden State’s starting lineup, but inevitable injuries and other circumstances are bound to cause shake-ups.
Kerr’s job is to search for lineups that put his players in the best positions to succeed, and stick with them upon discovery. For this team, it’s to figure out how to surround Butler and Green with requisite shooting, how to generate sustainable offense when Curry’s off the floor, and how to quickly identify which of his plethora of guards might have it going on a given night.
For the moment, he’s removed Jonathan Kuminga from the equation entirely. Rookie Will Richard has also been out of the rotation after starting 12 games. With Al Horford nearing a return from sciatica, the Warriors are healthy, which will give Kerr a full menu to choose from.
Let’s explore the dynamics the coach is weighing.
This new starting lineup
Curry-Moody-Butler-Green-Post, on paper, should be the platonic ideal of balance for the Warriors. There should be enough shooting, playmaking, and defense to connect the game on both ends of the court.
That’s, presumably, why Kerr plans on giving it a fair shot. It’s not because this particular group has earned it.
In 15 minutes played this season, that five-man unit has been outscored by 13.1 points per 100 possessions. Moody and Post really need to hit their outside shots to turn things around.
But this is the base of a lineup that should serve as a reference point. Sub in Brandin Podziemski for Butler, and that combination has dominated (+88.5 net) in six minutes. Replace Curry with Pat Spencer for the same result (+73.7 net in nine minutes). The smaller iteration with Podziemski in Post’s spot was the unit that carried the Warriors to a 23-8 close to last season.
Maybe Curry-Moody-Butler-Green-Post isn’t as much a starting lineup as it is a starting point.
The center spot: single or double big?
For more than a decade, the Warriors have blitzed their opponents by downshifting to small, speedy lineups with Green at center. His playmaking and chemistry with Curry puts defenses in a bind, while his ability to protect the rim and bang with bruising centers means the Warriors don’t give an inch defensively.
When the going gets tough, the Warriors can always deploy their small-ball lineup. Surely they can still rely on it, right? Let’s check under the hood just to make sure…
Green on the court, Horford, and Post off: +0.4 NET in 307 minutes
Inconceivable! (opens in new tab)
Even though Green has struggled mightily with turnovers this season (he had eight in the loss to the Blazers), he remains elite defensively. The lineup construction should still work.
It’s not necessarily Green’s fault that the lineups have been neutral this season. The Warriors no longer have versatile, wing-sized players such as Andre Iguodala, Kevin Durant, Harrison Barnes, Klay Thompson, and Andrew Wiggins to throw out next to Green. Whereas Death Lineups of days past were athletic enough to switch defensively, this season’s iterations have often included three or four guards.
They’ve just been too small. That’s where the Kuminga question looms (more on that soon).
So far, though, the best solution has been pairing Green with Post, who has drastically improved on defense and remains a 3-point threat.
Lineups feature combinations of Horford, Post, and Green showing minutes played, offensive and defensive ratings, net rating, shooting percentages, turnover rates, and rebound percentages.
Source: Databallr
Will Kuminga get another shot?
With less than a month until he’s eligible for a trade, Kuminga has received three straight DNP-CDs. There’s no grand conspiracy as to why that is.
But for as poorly as Kuminga was playing before getting yanked from the rotation, there’s always the possibility that he returns to the equation. Maybe even soon. Some lineup data suggests Kerr should’ve been more patient with the young wing.
For example, Curry-Butler-Kuminga-Green-Post — Kuminga in Moody’s spot of the same lineup construction of the current starters — posted a +20.6 net rating in 44 minutes. Of all Warriors five-man combinations that have played more than 20 minutes together, that has been the most effective.
But almost all of those minutes came in the first couple weeks of the season, when Kuminga was playing the style of basketball Kerr has always preferred: rebound, defend, cut, and run the floor. If Kuminga gets another shot, would he commit to that role? Or will the Groundhog Day of Kuminga appearing to turn a corner before regressing repeat itself?
The Warriors have been much better with Kuminga off the court than when he’s been on it this season (he has a -7.4 on/off rating). If the Warriors develop continuity with their current group and start to rack up wins, there won’t be urgency to reintegrate him into the fold. But the longer Kerr is searching for answers, the longer Kuminga looms as at least as good of a solution as any.
Which lineups have worked?
The biggest sign that better days are on the horizon for the Warriors is that when their three best players are healthy and playing together, they win.
The Curry-Green-Butler trio has a +12.0 net rating. Curry and Green together are +14. Butler with Green is likewise positive. Butler alone, surprisingly, is +14.6 (the advanced metrics love Butler despite his often modest scoring).
Yet injuries have caused the Warriors’ stars to be in and out of the lineup for much of the past month, so sample sizes for five-man combinations are still growing to the point that they can be reliable.
Here are some productive lineups the Warriors could explore when everyone is healthy and available.
(De’Anthony Melton should fit in several variations, but is omitted because of small sample size).
Podziemski-Hield-Butler-Green-Post: +22.2 net (24 mins)
Surround Butler with shooting, and good things happen. This group has the potential to perform even better if it leans into Butler’s stabilizing presence and reduces its turnovers.
Curry-Podziemski-Butler-Kuminga-Green: +12.4 (64 mins)
This is the five-man unit Golden State used to start the season and the one the front office probably had top of mind. It remains intriguing as the team’s closest facsimile to a Death Lineup — but only if Kuminga is at his best.
Curry-Moody-Richard-Butler-Green: +12.2 (55 mins)
Green at center lineups might need both Moody and Richard on the floor for positional size. Richard is out of the rotation at the moment as Kerr defers to veterans on the roster, but that shouldn’t last long.
Which combinations have struggled?
It’s still early, but we’ve seen enough on certain groupings.
Podziemski-Moody-Butler-Kuminga-Green: -23.7 net (15 mins)
The Butler/Kuminga/Green trio only works with Curry.
Five different basketball lineups with player photos and names have detailed stats including minutes played, offensive and defensive ratings, net rating, and various shooting and rebounding percentages.
Source: Databallr
Podziemski-Moody-Richard-Santos-TJD: -10.8 (13 mins)
No center on the roster can fix the lack of off-the-bounce juice this quartet has.
Podziemski-Hield-Kuminga trio: -39 (51 mins)
Too many turnovers, not enough shooting. Their 78.1 offensive rating is more nauseating than a Zoox ride. They’ve played with a combination of different centers and guards, and none have worked.
Spencer-Curry-Hield-Butler-Green: -5.3 (9 mins)
Kerr tried this starting group last Friday against the Timberwolves. There’s no reason to give it another look.
So what’s next?
Kerr is probably closer to finding combinations that work than he feels.
The bench units are already practically solved. Shooting around Butler is a formula that works, especially if Spencer is involved to help organize in the halfcourt. The Warriors are winning the Butler-on, Curry-off minutes by 8.1 points per 100 possessions.
What’s confounding is that the Warriors have struggled in the minutes Curry is on but Butler sits (-5.8 net). It’s possible that’s just a fluke and will positively regress soon. Curry is having his highest scoring season since 2021 while maintaining elite efficiency. Everyone should be able to play next to him.
The Portland loss revealed that Kerr is so desperate for answers that he’s willing to tinker with Curry’s substitution pattern. Anything to find a spark at this point. Maybe the next move is to pair Curry’s minutes with Green’s to optimize the chemistry they’ve developed over the past 14 years.
Kerr will keep tinkering until he finds something. There’s a method to his mad scientist decisions.
“I think we’re heading in the right direction,” Kerr said. “I would love to get some continuity.”